美联储加息风暴，比预期来得更猛烈

华尔街见闻2022-04-25

摘要：联邦基金期货市场已经消化了下个月加息50个基点、6月加息75个基点、7月加息50个基点的预期。“不要对抗美联储”一直是华尔街的座右铭，尽管美联储迄今为止在对抗通胀的战斗中一直表现得不太情愿。过去一周，美联储官员加大了反通胀的力度，鲍威尔几乎承诺在5月3-4日的下一次FOMC会议上，将联邦基金目标区间上调50个基点。有“鹰王”之称的圣路易斯联储主席布拉德则提出了加息75个基点的可能性，这是...

网页链接

免责声明：本文观点仅代表作者个人观点，不构成本平台的投资建议，本平台不对文章信息准确性、完整性和及时性做出任何保证，亦不对因使用或信赖文章信息引发的任何损失承担责任。

精彩评论

大时代小访客
2022-04-25
大时代小访客
必须熔断
火箭发射
2022-04-25
火箭发射
倒是加呀光说不练嘴把式
- 阳光小韭回复Jim Simt:
  都负债累累成那样了，这是什么操作[笑哭]
- Jim Simt:
  只是表上的数字 [笑哭]
- Jim Simt:
  [捂脸]
- 阳光小韭:
  加息的钱他从哪来的呀？[汗颜]

发表看法

{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"isChannel":false,"data":{"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2230611663?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/42d623bf2f962cffafc93d5db7d45f9c","is_english":false,"pubTime":"2022-04-25 10:43","share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","id":"2230611663","market":"us","top_or_hot":-1,"title":"美联储加息风暴，比预期来得更猛烈","media":"华尔街见闻","content":"<div>\n<p>摘要：联邦基金期货市场已经消化了下个月加息50个基点、6月加息75个基点、7月加息50个基点的预期。“不要对抗美联储”一直是华尔街的座右铭，尽管美联储迄今为止在对抗通胀的战斗中一直表现得不太情愿。过去一周，美联储官员加大了反通胀的力度，鲍威尔几乎承诺在5月3-4日的下一次FOMC会议上，将联邦基金目标区间上调50个基点。有“鹰王”之称的圣路易斯联储主席布拉德则提出了加息75个基点的可能性，这是...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3657823\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"wallstreetcn_api","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>美联储加息风暴，比预期来得更猛烈</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美联储加息风暴，比预期来得更猛烈\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-04-25 10:43 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3657823><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>摘要：联邦基金期货市场已经消化了下个月加息50个基点、6月加息75个基点、7月加息50个基点的预期。“不要对抗美联储”一直是华尔街的座右铭，尽管美联储迄今为止在对抗通胀的战斗中一直表现得不太情愿。过去一周，美联储官员加大了反通胀的力度，鲍威尔几乎承诺在5月3-4日的下一次FOMC会议上，将联邦基金目标区间上调50个基点。有“鹰王”之称的圣路易斯联储主席布拉德则提出了加息75个基点的可能性，这是...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3657823\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"QID","symbol_name":"纳指两倍做空ETF","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3657823","article_id":"2230611663","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":["https://static.tigerbbs.com/42d623bf2f962cffafc93d5db7d45f9c"],"rights":{"source":"wallstreetcn_api","url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3657823","rn_cache_url":null,"directOrigin":true},"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2230611663","pubTimestamp":1650854603,"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"wallstreetcn_api","name":"华尔街见闻"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"摘要：联邦基金期货市场已经消化了下个月加息50个基点、6月加息75个基点、7月加息50个基点的预期。“不要对抗美联储”一直是华尔街的座右铭，尽管美联储迄今为止在对抗通胀的战斗中一直表现得不太情愿。过去","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"wallstreetcn.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"zh","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","QID":"纳指两倍做空ETF","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF","UDOW":"道指三倍做多ETF-ProShares","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","DDM":"道指两倍做多ETF","SDOW":"道指三倍做空ETF-ProShares","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","DOG":"道指反向ETF","SDS":"两倍做空标普500ETF","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","SH":"标普500反向ETF","QLD":"纳指两倍做多ETF","SSO":"两倍做多标普500ETF","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","BK4581":"高盛持仓","IVV":"标普500指数ETF","BK4504":"桥水持仓","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF","DXD":"道指两倍做空ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","OEX":"标普100","PSQ":"纳指反向ETF"},"translate_title":"The Fed's interest rate hike storm is more violent than expected","themeId":"","isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/106ecb74e61b6ff6b42d6893766c8186","symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.6,"513500":0.6,".IXIC":1,".DJI":1,"SPY":1,"OEF":0.6,"UPRO":0.6,"OEX":0.6,"PSQ":0.6,"QID":0.6,"QLD":0.6,"QQQ":0.6,"SDOW":0.6,"SDS":0.6,"SH":0.6,"SPXU":0.6,"SQQQ":0.6,"SSO":0.6,"TQQQ":0.6,"UDOW":0.6,"IVV":0.6,"NQmain":0.6,"MNQmain":0.6,"ESmain":0.6,"DXD":0.6,"DOG":0.6,"DJX":0.6,"DDM":0.6,".SPX":0.6},"content_text":"摘要：联邦基金期货市场已经消化了下个月加息50个基点、6月加息75个基点、7月加息50个基点的预期。“不要对抗美联储”一直是华尔街的座右铭，尽管美联储迄今为止在对抗通胀的战斗中一直表现得不太情愿。过去一周，美联储官员加大了反通胀的力度，鲍威尔几乎承诺在5月3-4日的下一次FOMC会议上，将联邦基金目标区间上调50个基点。有“鹰王”之称的圣路易斯联储主席布拉德则提出了加息75个基点的可能性，这是美联储自1994年以来从未采取过的举措。一些美联储观察人士预计，美联储加息步伐会比预期的更快。野村美国经济学家上周五预计，美联储可能在5月加息50个基点之后，6月和7月将分别加息75个基点，并且9月、11月和12月将分别加息25个基点。这将使联邦基金利率在7月份升至2.25-2.50%，并在年底前升至3.00%-3.25%。目前，联邦基金期货市场已经消化了下个月加息50个基点、6月13-14日FOMC会议加息75个基点、7月26-27日会议加息50个基点的预期。根据CME Fed Watch网站截至上周五的数据，7月美联储关键利率升至2.00%-2.25%的可能性已达到87%，一周前这一比例还不到16%。本周美联储进入静默期这些预测都对股市造成重创，上周标普500指数和纳斯达克综合指数连续第三周下跌，分别下跌2.75%和3.83%，道琼斯工业平均指数连续第四周下跌，下跌1.86%；短期国债市场在加息预期下的调整幅度最大，两年期美债收益率上涨27个基点，至2.713%，10年期美债收益率接近3%，至2.905%，上涨9.7个基点。与市场走势形成鲜明对比的是，美联储政策立场的实际调整幅度很小，其基金利率目标区间为0.25%-0.50%，仅比接近零的疫情期间水平高出25个基点，而且最近一周，美联储高达8.9万亿美元的资产负债表，又增加了100亿美元，市场预计FOMC将在下月的会议上宣布其开始缩减资产负债表的“作战计划”。正如克利夫兰联储主席梅斯特(Loretta Mester)上周五接受CNBC采访时承认的那样，美联储的目标是收紧金融环境，尽管她表示不需要太过激进。对于今年无处可躲的投资者来说，这很难让他们感到宽慰。今年，传统的60%股票和40%债券的投资组合对通胀和利率上升提供的保护作用微乎其微。数据显示，代表60/40投资组合的先锋平衡指数基金(Vanguard Balanced Index Fund Institutional Shares，VBAIX)今年截至上周五的总回报率为-11.13%。本周，美联储按照惯例进入静默期，投资者将从中得到喘息。由于加息50个基点的可能性似乎已经确定，需要关注的关键数据包括美国一季度就业成本指数，这是美联储衡量通胀的关键指标，德意志银行(Deutsche Bank)的经济学家预计，该数据将较上年同期增长4.6%，为1991年以来最大增幅。这应该会促使美联储官员采取行动。","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":null,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":618397210,"gmtCreate":1650860756291,"gmtModify":1650860756291,"author":{"id":"3561879663594351","authorId":"3561879663594351","name":"大时代小访客","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"必须熔断","listText":"必须熔断","text":"必须熔断","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/618397210","repostId":2230611663,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":618395133,"gmtCreate":1650859293121,"gmtModify":1650859293121,"author":{"id":"3451486569951515","authorId":"3451486569951515","name":"火箭发射","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/32b239cb391ddfcdd8e073bf53a285fa","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"倒是加呀 光说不练嘴把式","listText":"倒是加呀 光说不练嘴把式","text":"倒是加呀 光说不练嘴把式","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/618395133","repostId":2230611663,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":7371889,"gmtCreate":1650859978887,"gmtModify":1650859978887,"authorId":3565504098630572,"author":{"id":3565504098630572,"authorId":3565504098630572,"name":"阳光小韭","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f79edaa280746cca23919ac63191cde0","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":3545829419630190,"repliedAuthor":{"id":3545829419630190,"authorId":3545829419630190,"name":"Jim Simt","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/94539b1fc937f0f9535812cd9dfe4b60","vip":1,"currentWearingBadge":{"badgeId":"228c86a078844d74991fff2b7ab2428d-1","templateUuid":"228c86a078844d74991fff2b7ab2428d","name":"投资经理虎","description":"证券账户累计交易金额达到10万美元","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c8dfc27c1ee0e25db1c93e9d0b641101","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f43908c142f8a33c78f5bdf0e2897488","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/82165ff19cb8a786e8919f92acee5213","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":1,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.28","exceedPercentage":"60.33%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1101},"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"objectId":618395133,"type":1,"supId":7371864,"prevId":7371881,"content":"都负债累累成那样了，这是什么操作[笑哭]","text":"都负债累累成那样了，这是什么操作[笑哭]","html":"都负债累累成那样了，这是什么操作[笑哭]"},{"id":7371881,"gmtCreate":1650859865932,"gmtModify":1650859865932,"authorId":3545829419630190,"author":{"id":3545829419630190,"authorId":3545829419630190,"name":"Jim Simt","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/94539b1fc937f0f9535812cd9dfe4b60","vip":1,"currentWearingBadge":{"badgeId":"228c86a078844d74991fff2b7ab2428d-1","templateUuid":"228c86a078844d74991fff2b7ab2428d","name":"投资经理虎","description":"证券账户累计交易金额达到10万美元","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c8dfc27c1ee0e25db1c93e9d0b641101","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f43908c142f8a33c78f5bdf0e2897488","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/82165ff19cb8a786e8919f92acee5213","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":1,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.28","exceedPercentage":"60.33%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1101},"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":618395133,"type":1,"supId":7371864,"prevId":0,"content":"只是表上的数字 [笑哭]","text":"只是表上的数字 [笑哭]","html":"只是表上的数字 [笑哭]"},{"id":7371877,"gmtCreate":1650859714888,"gmtModify":1650859714888,"authorId":3545829419630190,"author":{"id":3545829419630190,"authorId":3545829419630190,"name":"Jim Simt","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/94539b1fc937f0f9535812cd9dfe4b60","vip":1,"currentWearingBadge":{"badgeId":"228c86a078844d74991fff2b7ab2428d-1","templateUuid":"228c86a078844d74991fff2b7ab2428d","name":"投资经理虎","description":"证券账户累计交易金额达到10万美元","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c8dfc27c1ee0e25db1c93e9d0b641101","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f43908c142f8a33c78f5bdf0e2897488","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/82165ff19cb8a786e8919f92acee5213","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":1,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.28","exceedPercentage":"60.33%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1101},"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":618395133,"type":1,"supId":7371864,"prevId":0,"content":"[捂脸]","text":"[捂脸]","html":"[捂脸]"},{"id":7371864,"gmtCreate":1650859360082,"gmtModify":1650859360082,"authorId":3565504098630572,"author":{"id":3565504098630572,"authorId":3565504098630572,"name":"阳光小韭","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f79edaa280746cca23919ac63191cde0","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":618395133,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"加息的钱他从哪来的呀？[汗颜]","text":"加息的钱他从哪来的呀？[汗颜]","html":"加息的钱他从哪来的呀？[汗颜]"}],"langContent":"CN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":9,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.25.0","shortVersion":"4.25.0","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2230611663"}