外媒头条 | 德银警告美国经济明年将严重衰退

市场资讯2022-04-27

全球财经媒体昨夜今晨共同关注的头条新闻主要有：1、德银：美联储应升息至5%-6% 美国经济明年将严重衰退2、不付卢布就停供天然气俄罗斯宣布将切断对波兰和保加利亚供气3、美国房价再度加速上涨 20大城市同时取得两位数涨幅4、马斯克拿下推特后特斯拉股价跌超12% 市值蒸发逾千亿美元5、分析师：马斯克收购推特或增加Facebook、谷歌等的广告收入6、美国副总统哈里斯新冠检测结果呈阳性德银：美联储应...

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精彩评论

大黑黑
2022-04-27
大黑黑
6666
焦璐
2022-04-27
焦璐
。。。
Jiaoozi
2022-04-27
Jiaoozi
大a现在已经是主跌浪了，美股的大熊市才刚开始
Johnny12345
2022-04-27
Johnny12345
美国经济衰退一般就是美股上行的时候了
梓坚
2022-04-27
梓坚
😱😱😱😱😱
海风吹了
2022-04-27
海风吹了
有理

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市值蒸发逾千亿美元5、分析师：马斯克收购推特或增加Facebook、谷歌等的广告收入6、美国副总统哈里斯新冠检测结果呈阳性德银：美联储应升息至5%-6% 美国经济明年将严重衰退德意志银行经济学家警告称，美联储可能需要实施1980年代以来最激进的货币紧缩才能让通胀率从四十年高位降下来，这将导致美国明年出现严重衰退。德银首席经济学家兼研究主管David Folkerts-Landau等人周二撰文称，“我们的保守观点是联邦基金目标利率要深入到5%-6%区间方可遏制住通胀，这部分是由于缩表也能促进货币政策紧缩，我们的经济研究团队认为其效果相当于额外两次25基点的加息”。Folkerts-Landau表示，这种货币紧缩和随之而来的金融动荡“将推动美国经济在明年年底前陷入严重衰退”。德意志银行补充说，预计失业率最终将上升“几个百分点”。德意志银行经济学家自己也承认，他们比大多数其他主要预测机构更为悲观。高盛估计未来两年美国经济萎缩概率约为35%，彭博经济研究的衰退概率模型估计，2024年1月之前发生经济衰退的可能性为44%。在德意志银行经济学家看来，美联储将利率提高到2.5%左右的中性水平远不能缓解通胀。这是因为通胀预期已经在美国家庭中扎根，而且劳动力市场极其紧俏，失业率已降至3.6%。不付卢布就停供天然气 俄罗斯宣布将切断对波兰和保加利亚供气俄罗斯将在周三切断对波兰和保加利亚的天然气供应，此举标志莫斯科与欧洲各国在关键能源供应问题上的紧张关系出现重大升级。俄方显然是在兑现此前普京做出的不用卢布买天然气就“切断供气”的威胁，欧盟认为用卢布买气会违反对俄制裁规定，而且等于是在给普京提供助力。波兰对俄罗斯的批评一直非常激烈，该国已经拒绝将卢布作为天然气交易的结算货币。波兰主要天然气供应商PGNiG表示，俄罗斯天然气工业股份公司通知说将从周三起将停止所有天然气供应。很快保加利亚也收到了停止供气的通知。预计未来几周将有更多公司需要在支付卢布还是失去天然气供应之间做出抉择。欧洲天然气价格一度飙升17%，交易员们正在评估其他欧洲国家也被“断气”的风险。现在的焦点转向其他欧洲国家，尤其是德国，该国也严重依赖俄罗斯的天然气。美国房价再度加速上涨 20大城市同时取得两位数涨幅美国房价涨幅在2月份再度加速。周二发布的数据显示，标普CoreLogic凯斯-席勒美国20城房价指数在2月份同比上涨20.2%，高于1月份18.9%的同比涨幅。所有20个城市的房价涨幅均达到两位数，凤凰城、坦帕和迈阿密涨幅最大。标普道琼斯指数的指数投资策略全球主管Craig Lazzara表示，全国房价指数同比上涨19.8%，是该数据系列35年来的第三高涨幅。新冠疫情袭击美国之后，在本就供应紧张的房地产市场掀起了激烈的竞价大战。时隔两年，房屋需求仍然强劲。抵押贷款利率快速上升（目前处于12年高点）正在促使部分买家观望，而另一些买家则竞相在成本进一步攀升之前锁定交易。虽然房地产市场现在处于传统上的旺季，但潜在冷却迹象可能正在浮现。由于待售房产稀缺，美国3月份的二手房销量下降至2020年6月以来的最低水平。马斯克拿下推特后 特斯拉股价跌超12% 市值蒸发逾千亿美元就在推特董事会批准马斯克以440亿美元收购该公司的一天后，特斯拉股价下跌超12%，市值蒸发超过1000亿美元，这表明部分下跌可能反映了投资者对该交易的担忧。特斯拉股价周二收盘大跌12.28%，报876.42美元。科技股占主导地位的纳斯达克综合指数下跌约4%。苹果、亚马逊、谷歌和 Facebook母公司Meta等其他大型科技股跌超3%。电动汽车制造商Rivian和Lucid的股价也分别下跌9.5%和8.7%。尽管马斯克是全球最富有的人，但他的大部分财富都与特斯拉股票挂钩，这意味着他可能不得不借用他的持股来为这笔交易提供资金。特斯拉的投资者也可能担心拥有推特这样的平台可能会分散马斯克的注意力。马斯克似乎想对推特的运营产生重大影响，这可能会导致他分心。假设交易完成，马斯克将负责特斯拉、推特和SpaceX三家公司，他还拥有两家较小的企业，Boring Company和Neuralink。分析师：马斯克收购推特或增加Facebook、谷歌等的广告收入几家华尔街公司的分析师在给投资者的报告中表示，特斯拉CEO埃隆-马斯克（Elon Musk）收购推特（Twitter）可能会增加YouTube、Snap、Facebook母公司Meta和TikTok的广告收入。周一宣布接受马斯克收购出价的推特严重依赖广告销售，在最近一个季度，广告销售占其收入的最大份额，为14.1亿美元。但马斯克或会采取两种可能会拉走广告收入的方式。直言不讳的马斯克认为言论自由对平台至关重要，这可能意味着更少的内容审核。JMP分析师周二在一份报告中表示，品牌方不希望他们的内容可能出现在错误信息或仇恨言论旁边，这可能会撤走他们的支出。JMP分析师写道：“推特约85%的收入来自品牌广告，考虑到品牌安全问题，广告商可能会将预算转移到其他渠道”，这可能有助于YouTube、Snap、Meta和TikTok。此外，马斯克似乎也有兴趣建立推特新的订阅模式。本月早些时候，马斯克针对推特的Twitter 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