美国的战略石油储备武器也许只会帮倒忙

市场资讯2022-04-01

在石油市场，美国战略石油储备的地位有点像人们当初对俄罗斯军队的遐想。总觉得规模庞大且令人生畏，总之千万别招惹就对了。过去一个月里，在乌克兰泥泞的战场上，俄军的无敌光环受到了近乎致命的打击。拜登政府应该小心点：美国最强大的能源武器可能最后也难免跌落神坛。白宫称，拟未来几个月每天从战略石油储备中释放约100万桶原油以阻止汽油价格上涨。据悉总量可能高达1.8亿桶。。这是一个了不起的数字。一天1百万桶...

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精彩评论

antonyye
2022-04-02
antonyye
心怀恶意，好像缺了点什么人类的最基本的东西...。
catbig
2022-04-02
catbig
给乞丐一块钱，也不能根本改变乞丐的处境，算了！我连一块钱也不给了。。。。
jianmo
2022-04-02
jianmo
** 为了反对而反对屁股决定脑袋
浴缸潜水员
2022-04-02
浴缸潜水员
愚人节的文章，果然[得意]
金融大哼
2022-04-02
金融大哼
就是这样，投放你能投多少，总会投完的
GUOT
2022-04-02
GUOT
小編你睜大鈦合金的眼兒，看看有用沒用！

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。据悉总量可能高达1.8亿桶。。这是一个了不起的数字。一天1百万桶相当于当前全球石油需求的1%左右，足以满足一个类似澳大利亚，意大利，西班牙或台湾地区这样规模经济体的大部分需求。这个投放量可能是之前最高纪录的六倍（具体取决于其结构），效果如同按下石油市场上的核按钮一样。但是如果按下核按钮后一切照旧该怎么办？这是部署战略石油储备武器的风险。历史上看，这种干预效果喜忧参半，投放后油价上涨和下跌的可能性都有。其实在2月底俄乌冲突前，WTI自11月23日美国向市场投放5000万桶储备油以来已经上涨了18%。3月前油价达到了八年高点。这没什么可奇怪的。战略石油储备不是石油生产国，它本质上就是一个异常庞大的油库存，在大宗商品市场，库存减少几乎总是会推高油价的。若从现有储备中拿出1.8亿桶原油，则库存量将降至仅3.88亿桶，为1984年以来的最低水平，差不多是比半满略多一些。美国国会已经批准的储备油投放计划将在未来五年中使油库存缩小类似幅度。试想一下，在这个基础上如果再投放储备油，该武器明显会开始生锈。出于这个原因，任何储备油的投放都可能以类似去年11月的交换形式进行，而不是直接出售。根据这种安排，炼油商将不得不承诺置换未来几年收到的每桶原油，而且还要多还点原油作为利息。其效果其实比直接出售更糟糕，因为从长期来看，它们从市场拿走的原油要比投放的更多。根据达拉斯联邦储备银行2019年的一项研究，小布什在其第一个总统任期就用过这个办法来提高取暖油库存，结果最终推动原油价格上涨了约8.5%。对于华盛顿来说，更深层次的问题是，战略石油储备并不是舞台上唯一主角，甚至也不是最强大的。仅在美国，就有六家石油生产商的日产量接近100万桶。美国能源信息管理局预计今年美国油田的产量将增加每日40万桶， 明年增加100万桶/日，但如果对价格敏感的页岩油生产商应对来自政府储备油的竞争，它们可能会减产，以上数字会被向下修正。与此同时，美国立法机构还在刺激原油需求，承诺削减州汽油税，此举可能抵消任何供应增加对油价的影响。更大的问题是海外如何应对。被大量投放的储备油可能要到全球市场消化，不过要想全部通过输油管，炼油厂和美国墨西哥湾沿岸的港口瓶颈，难度可能很大。如果说此举对降低原油成本产生了预期效果，那肯定会让OPEC+成员国不爽。该组织从疫情期低点逐渐增加的产量已经大大低于去年的目标水平。事实上，其带来的供应缺口不是每天100万桶美国储备油投放能够满足的。自从产油大国俄罗斯与乌克兰正面冲突后，俄罗斯每天450万桶的出口受到制裁措施影响，油市供应状况进一步恶化，但OPEC+对通过加快增产来帮助华盛顿、打击莫斯科毫无兴趣。理论上，OPEC+的产量到10月时可能比当前高出约300万桶/日，但要是该组织因为华盛顿史无前例的储备油投放行动而决定减产，那没有任何因素可以阻止它们。要是OPEC+认定拜登是虚张声势，那么华盛顿在能源市场的主导地位可能会面临1970年代以来从未有过的不利局面。鉴于它的战略储备油也只是半满，看起来可能真的像是童话里那个没穿衣服的皇帝。","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":619935127,"gmtCreate":1648878924464,"gmtModify":1648878924464,"author":{"id":"3464817662142392","authorId":"3464817662142392","name":"antonyye","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3464817662142392","idStr":"3464817662142392"},"htmlText":"心怀恶意，好像缺了点什么人类的最基本的东西...。","listText":"心怀恶意，好像缺了点什么人类的最基本的东西...。","text":"心怀恶意，好像缺了点什么人类的最基本的东西...。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/619935127","repostId":2224393758,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":619991996,"gmtCreate":1648871086132,"gmtModify":1648871874939,"author":{"id":"4110461951632430","authorId":"4110461951632430","name":"catbig","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/55d555f5f3ec452d5d46b80f9b89ed55","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"4110461951632430","idStr":"4110461951632430"},"htmlText":"给乞丐一块钱，也不能根本改变乞丐的处境，算了！我连一块钱也不给了。。。。","listText":"给乞丐一块钱，也不能根本改变乞丐的处境，算了！我连一块钱也不给了。。。。","text":"给乞丐一块钱，也不能根本改变乞丐的处境，算了！我连一块钱也不给了。。。。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/619991996","repostId":2224393758,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":619901114,"gmtCreate":1648865503570,"gmtModify":1648865503570,"author":{"id":"3517959138040831","authorId":"3517959138040831","name":"jianmo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffb67c2e108583273cd3becb198da230","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3517959138040831","idStr":"3517959138040831"},"htmlText":"** 为了反对而反对 屁股决定脑袋","listText":"** 为了反对而反对 屁股决定脑袋","text":"** 为了反对而反对 屁股决定脑袋","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/619901114","repostId":2224393758,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":619070499,"gmtCreate":1648861384745,"gmtModify":1648861384745,"author":{"id":"3532132223347993","authorId":"3532132223347993","name":"浴缸潜水员","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b4d01d6abe944b89aee8c87b329e931f","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"authorIdStr":"3532132223347993","idStr":"3532132223347993"},"htmlText":"愚人节的文章，果然[得意]&nbsp;","listText":"愚人节的文章，果然[得意]&nbsp;","text":"愚人节的文章，果然[得意]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/619070499","repostId":2224393758,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":619044016,"gmtCreate":1648859661151,"gmtModify":1648864033265,"author":{"id":"4103410164831750","authorId":"4103410164831750","name":"金融大哼","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/20088cbb0ffd1d726e4d094a5afd3418","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"4103410164831750","idStr":"4103410164831750"},"htmlText":"就是这样，投放你能投多少，总会投完的","listText":"就是这样，投放你能投多少，总会投完的","text":"就是这样，投放你能投多少，总会投完的","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/619044016","repostId":2224393758,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":619054945,"gmtCreate":1648841824988,"gmtModify":1648841824988,"author":{"id":"3481098662443129","authorId":"3481098662443129","name":"GUOT","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b553d0292edbc166cf1f8c75bc6b7776","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3481098662443129","idStr":"3481098662443129"},"htmlText":"小編你睜大鈦合金的眼兒，看看有用沒用！","listText":"小編你睜大鈦合金的眼兒，看看有用沒用！","text":"小編你睜大鈦合金的眼兒，看看有用沒用！","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/619054945","repostId":2224393758,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":26,"commentSize":9,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":14,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 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