卢布大幅回升，俄罗斯是怎么打这场“金融战”的

华尔街见闻2022-03-29

在俄罗斯与西方金融领域的较量中，卢布汇率能否稳住一直备受关注。随着欧美各国采取将俄罗斯剔除SWIFT、冻结俄罗斯央行外储等制裁措施，卢布兑美元汇率曾一度暴跌33%。不过，近一个月卢比汇率的强势表现似乎在证明，俄罗斯外汇市场的“防线”并没有那么容易被击垮。当地时间3月28日周一，美元兑卢布汇率一度涨穿90卢布关口，创3月1日以来新高；截至发稿，美元兑卢布汇率依然有94.25，较3月7日历史最低点的...

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精彩评论

汪汪碎碎冰
2022-03-30
汪汪碎碎冰
货币起义，这对美元霸权伤害很大
浴缸潜水员
2022-03-30
浴缸潜水员
据《环球时报》……[喷血]
猛逃
2022-03-30
猛逃
都是一个路数：不让自由流动[捂嘴]
马甲
2022-03-29
马甲
赢麻了。多亏了外汇强结和管制啊。
红楼秋雨
2022-03-29
红楼秋雨
无脑
红楼秋雨
2022-03-29
红楼秋雨
这种**文章，就不要发了。

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How did Russia fight this \"financial 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Bruegel而上周的一则消息更是令市场浮想联翩。华尔街见闻提及，当地时间3月23日，俄罗斯总统普京作出决定，向欧洲国家供应天然气将用卢布进行结算。受此影响，卢布短线随即大涨近8%。将卢布与能源绑定的思路，短期来看，不仅增加了卢布的需求，给卢布汇率拓宽了“护城河”，还给了俄罗斯通过卢布调整天然气价格的空间。据《环球时报》援引浙江大学国际联合商学院数字经济与金融创新研究中心联席主任、研究员盘和林分析，如果俄罗斯拒绝其他潜在的替代支付方式，现在只同意卢布交易，那么欧洲要买俄方的天然气，就等于客观上解除了SWIFT制裁。外汇市场的表现也从侧面验证了俄罗斯政策的成效。在俄乌冲突爆发后，卢布市场分裂为在岸市场（俄罗斯境内）与离岸市场（国际市场）两种汇率，二者一度差距显著。不过，进入三月以后，随着俄罗斯应对政策的发力，二者价差一直在收窄。同时，一些银行给出的卢布兑美元汇率报价较莫斯科交易所还低一些，如Sberbank PJSC 的报价约为89卢布兑1美元；奥地利 Raiffeisen 银行在俄罗斯网站报价仅为86。持久战尽管眼下俄罗斯卢布的强势反弹，“卢布汇率保卫战”初见成效。不过，考虑到制裁的持续以及欧盟希望在长期能降低对俄罗斯供应的依赖，长期来看卢布的压力仍然不小。有市场分析认为，考虑到俄罗斯实行的临时资本管制政策，卢布的上涨可能只是暂时的。国际金融研究所首席经济学家 Robin Brooks 表示：“公平地讲，卢布的价格不是市场价格。如果开启资本自由流动，我们会看到卢布贬值。”Monex 公司外汇分析主管Simon Harvey表示，由于货币市场与过去相比只占一小部分，因此卢布走强可能是短暂的。我不认为你会看到目前的货币水平得到维持，如果离岸市场以其全部能力重新回归，我不会说这是一个幻觉。但在目前的限制下，市场基本上已经发挥作用了。","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":610655062,"gmtCreate":1648615139860,"gmtModify":1648616650267,"author":{"id":"3461657738850487","authorId":"3461657738850487","name":"汪汪碎碎冰","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a80f0f28a72e9863a521819ef23c3cfe","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3461657738850487","authorIdStr":"3461657738850487"},"htmlText":"货币起义，这对美元霸权伤害很大","listText":"货币起义，这对美元霸权伤害很大","text":"货币起义，这对美元霸权伤害很大","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/610655062","repostId":2223846940,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":610639260,"gmtCreate":1648594721672,"gmtModify":1648594721672,"author":{"id":"3532132223347993","authorId":"3532132223347993","name":"浴缸潜水员","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b4d01d6abe944b89aee8c87b329e931f","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3532132223347993","authorIdStr":"3532132223347993"},"htmlText":"据《环球时报》……[喷血]&nbsp;","listText":"据《环球时报》……[喷血]&nbsp;","text":"据《环球时报》……[喷血]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/610639260","repostId":2223846940,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":610693598,"gmtCreate":1648576417419,"gmtModify":1648576417419,"author":{"id":"3518527627041174","authorId":"3518527627041174","name":"猛逃","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3518527627041174","authorIdStr":"3518527627041174"},"htmlText":"都是一个路数：不让自由流动[捂嘴]&nbsp;","listText":"都是一个路数：不让自由流动[捂嘴]&nbsp;","text":"都是一个路数：不让自由流动[捂嘴]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/610693598","repostId":2223846940,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":610601330,"gmtCreate":1648567685947,"gmtModify":1648567685947,"author":{"id":"3492666186842287","authorId":"3492666186842287","name":"马甲","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0313a49e0eab3259826c3cbaa473b1c4","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3492666186842287","authorIdStr":"3492666186842287"},"htmlText":"赢麻了。多亏了外汇强结和管制啊。","listText":"赢麻了。多亏了外汇强结和管制啊。","text":"赢麻了。多亏了外汇强结和管制啊。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/610601330","repostId":2223846940,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":610876423,"gmtCreate":1648565215867,"gmtModify":1648565259481,"author":{"id":"3570616634579231","authorId":"3570616634579231","name":"红楼秋雨","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f466da855caf32d0b4fb9b240535b5e5","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3570616634579231","authorIdStr":"3570616634579231"},"htmlText":"无脑","listText":"无脑","text":"无脑","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/610876423","repostId":2223846940,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":610876254,"gmtCreate":1648565208494,"gmtModify":1648565208494,"author":{"id":"3570616634579231","authorId":"3570616634579231","name":"红楼秋雨","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f466da855caf32d0b4fb9b240535b5e5","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3570616634579231","authorIdStr":"3570616634579231"},"htmlText":"这种**文章，就不要发了。","listText":"这种**文章，就不要发了。","text":"这种**文章，就不要发了。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":10,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/610876254","repostId":2223846940,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":37,"commentSize":8,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":14,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 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