Palantir's Gold Bullion Bet And War With Russia

seekingalpha2022-02-28

If one wants to speculate on the price of gold, the SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) and similar would typically be the vehicle used. However, these ETFs are financial products which have the inevitable ...

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javiery
2022-02-28
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However, these ETFs are financial products which have the inevitable ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4490506-palantirs-gold-bullion-bet-and-war-with-russia\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"BK4550","symbol_name":"红杉资本持仓","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4490506-palantirs-gold-bullion-bet-and-war-with-russia","article_id":"2214189884","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":null,"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2214189884","pubTimestamp":1646020082,"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"seekingalpha","name":"Seeking Alpha"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"If one wants to speculate on the price of gold, the SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) and similar would typicall","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"seekingalpha.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4504":"桥水持仓","BK4023":"应用软件","PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc.","BK4547":"WSB热门概念","GLD":"SPDR黄金ETF","BK4543":"AI"},"translate_title":"Palantir的黄金赌注与俄罗斯战争","themeId":"","isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"GLD":1,"PLTR":1},"content_text":"If one wants to speculate on the price of gold, the SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) and similar would typically be the vehicle used. However, these ETFs are financial products which have the inevitable counterparty risk.For example, if their custodian HSBC Bank PLC was impaired, this could affect the claim that GLD has on that gold. To further complicate matters, there are often times sub-custodians are used by custodians, including HSBC. In theory, all you need is one link in the chain to go bad and suddenly, the ETF no longer has access to the full amount of gold it contractually is supposed to have.This is why, if you're real prepper, you prefer physical gold. Specifically, physical gold allocated to you, rather than a generic share in an unallocated pool. All evidence suggests that this is indeed what Palantir (PLTR) bought; allocated 100-ounce gold bars.Palantir 10-Q filed 8-12-2021In summary, Palantir was not doing typical commodity speculation. They were preparing for something more sinister.As to what Palantir was anticipating, we do not know. It may not even be a specific event. In an interview, CFO Shyam Sankar said it \"reflects more of a worldview\" and \"you have to be prepared for a future with more black swan events.\"What black swan events warrant physical gold?Probably not another pandemic. At least not so soon.Earthquakes, forest fires, tsunamis, and almost all natural disasters would be unlikely, given that they occur in a limited geographic area and therefore, are unlikely to influence the global price of gold. Something like the Carrington Event of 1859, which is the most intense geomagnetic storm in recorded history, or a large meteorite striking earth, are the only acute natural events which come to mind that have an impact beyond a limited area.More likely, their motives were related war/military conflicts, currency debasements, and/or other geopolitics.Why did Palantir buy gold?Given their heavy involvement in military predictive analytics, one has to wonder if the odds of a military conflict/war were being suggested as probable in the near future. If it did, they're not telling us.Was it currency debasement? Well what we do know is that not long after this purchase, US inflation hit a 40 year high; 7.5% for the January 2022 CPI. That too seems like a possibility but again, not something they've commented on.Those who are suggesting that Palantir predicted a Russian war with Ukraine are probably giving them too much credit.To be clear, it's very possible that Palantir predicted high odds of such occurring in the days, weeks, and months leading up to the invasion, as the pieces fell into place (troop movements, etc.). However, predicting this event back in August would be miraculous. Though it is not impossible.If they were predicting a military conflict back in August, perhaps it was more generically speaking, in terms of the intervals between military conflicts happening globally and how they related to other variables. Perhaps there were variables specific to Russia and Ukraine in the algorithm, which weighed more heavily. Keep in mind that already this century, Russian invasions have coincided 3 times with 3 Olympic games (Georgia in 2008, Crimea in 2014, and now greater Ukraine in 2022). With the Olympics 6 months away from August, it's plausible their analytics suggested high odds of another Russian invasion during the games.Ultimately though, all of these specific reasons for buying gold seem unlikely. Why? Because the $50 million gold bar purchase may sound big, big it's small potatoes for Palantir, given they had about $2.3 billion in cash at that moment.That equates to gold being merely a 2.17% weighting. If they were really anticipating war or inflation, one would expect a larger bet. Say 10, 20, or 30%.Let's hope they didn't buy for war because if they did, it means they're expecting something far worse than present.","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":636555398,"gmtCreate":1646021552220,"gmtModify":1646021552377,"author":{"id":"3578269878229068","authorId":"3578269878229068","name":"javiery","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3578269878229068","idStr":"3578269878229068"},"htmlText":"like","listText":"like","text":"like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/636555398","repostId":2214189884,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":7267203,"gmtCreate":1646021559708,"gmtModify":1646021559742,"authorId":3578269878229068,"author":{"id":3578269878229068,"idStr":"3578269878229068","authorId":3578269878229068,"name":"javiery","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":636555398,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"<u>ok</u>","text":"<u>ok</u>","html":"<u>ok</u>"}],"langContent":"CN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.29.3","shortVersion":"4.29.3","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2214189884"}