外媒头条：小摩预计二季度油价或飙升至110美元

市场资讯2022-02-24

全球财经媒体昨夜今晨共同关注的头条新闻主要有：1、乌克兰危机难降温小摩预计二季度油价或飙升至110美元2、俄罗斯卢布跌至疫情期以来最低期权显示汇率还未触底3、美国考虑释放石油储备以应对乌克兰局势导致的油价飙升4、美国上周住房贷款申请指数大幅下降因抵押贷款利率上升5、高盛：对冲基金轮替投资配置大幅削减科技股6、欧洲央行管委称任何货币政策正常化都应循序渐进乌克兰危机难降温小摩预计二季度油价...

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精彩评论

Vicya
2022-02-24
Vicya
Nice
浴缸潜水员
2022-02-24
浴缸潜水员
爱涨涨，反正咱不敢做空。[喷血]
- Johnm:
  [捂脸]
Passer_qu
2022-02-24
Passer_qu
[美金]
Star_Xing
2022-02-24
Star_Xing
可以抄底嘛
Gigi5556
2022-02-24
Gigi5556
什么

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小摩预计二季度油价或飙升至110美元摩根大通预计，在乌克兰危机持续升级推动下，第二季平均油价可能上看110美元。包括Natasha Kaneva在内的摩根大通分析师在一份报告中写道，原油价格可能在下一季度持续高企，然后在今年年底回落至平均每桶90美元的水平。该预测假设乌克兰紧张局势进一步升级，同时伊朗核协议达成，得以向市场注入一些供应。布伦特本周涨至离每桶100美元咫尺之遥，还是2014年以来首见。东欧紧张局势给油价煽风点火的同时，交易员还预计，供不应求的局面正在压缩全球石油库存。摩根大通分析师表示，布伦特原油下一季度的均价在每桶110美元，西德克萨斯中质油料为107美元。这一目标比该行先前的预估都高出22美元。俄罗斯卢布跌至疫情期以来最低 期权显示汇率还未触底对于今年已经出现历史性下跌的俄罗斯市场，交易员传达的信息是，未来卢布可能还要继续下行。卢布兑美元周三延续跌势，触及2020年3月疫情开始以来的最低水平。期权定价显示，卢布兑美元在未来两个月内跌至纪录低点的可能性为50%。2016年卢布跌至纪录低位时经济正陷入衰退。技术分析师也持同样观点，认为卢布兑美元的趋势线接近失守。道明证券投资组合策略主管Cristian Maggio表示，“卢布的疲软程度将大于预期”。俄乌局势升级令俄罗斯金融市场受到重创。虽然周二资产价格因为交易员对制裁措施的影响仍存疑而有所反弹，但基准指数徘徊在多年低点附近。卢布和乌克兰格里夫纳都是今年表现垫底的货币，兑美元跌幅超过7%。在股市方面，自10月以来，莫斯科基准的MOEX指数已下跌近三分之一。俄罗斯市场周三因公共假日休市，但RTS股指期货暗示股市周四重新开市时可能会迎来下跌。美国考虑释放石油储备 以应对乌克兰局势导致的油价飙升两位知情人士透露，拜登政府正考虑再次动用战略石油储备，与盟友联手应对乌克兰局势导致的油价飙升。知情人士称，虽然尚未做出决定，但政府内部正在进行“活跃对话”，包括潜在的价格触发点，以及如何与其他国家协调释放石油储备。由于这些政府内部讨论尚未公开，知情人士要求匿名。他们说，正在建模以确定潜在释放储备石油的规模和范围。美国能源部不予置评。白宫以及国家安全委员会未立即回复置评请求。白宫去年11月批准从战略石油储备中释放5000万桶原油，联手印度、日本、韩国等以应对经济从疫情中恢复之际出现的油价飙升。美国上周住房贷款申请指数大幅下降 因抵押贷款利率上升一项美国住房贷款申请指标在上周降至2019年末以来最低水平，表明抵押贷款利率上升正对房地产市场构成更大压力。美国抵押贷款银行协会（MBA）周三公布，截至2月18日一周抵押贷款申请指数下降13.1%至466.4。购买指数下跌逾10%至去年8月中旬以来最低水平。再融资指标上周下降15.6%，达2019年12月以来最弱。30年期固定利率贷款的合约利率上周小幅上升至4.06%，为2019年7月以来最高水平。自2021年末以来，该利率已上升近0.75个百分点。高盛：对冲基金轮替投资配置 大幅削减科技股根据高盛集团的数据，美国对冲基金不断削减科技股的头寸，并且从2022年开始比十多年来任何时候都更倾向于配置便宜的股票。“文件显示，对冲基金根据与过去几年大部分时间不同的股票市场环境而配置部位，”以Ben Snider为首的策略师在给客户的报告中写道。他表示，股票头寸总计达2.6万亿美元的基金已经减持较为昂贵的增长型股票，转向偏好持有能源和金融股。高盛的分析是基于截至2月15日发布的788档对冲基金的“13F报告（揭露美股持仓部位的季度报告）”。分析显示，虽然标准普尔500科技巨头之下包括苹果公司和微软公司在内的所谓“FAAMG”集团仍然是最受欢迎的多头头寸，对冲基金持续将投资组合从增长股转向所谓的价值股。截至12月31日的调整后部位显示，对冲基金更倾向于价值股，且为2011年以来之最，这已经反映在今年的市场走势中。标准普尔500指数周二陷入回调，而以科技股为主的纳斯达克100指数今年下跌15%，原因是因通胀飙升，美联储的态度越来越偏鹰派。欧洲央行管委称任何货币政策正常化都应循序渐进欧洲央行管理委员会成员Pablo Hernandez de Cos表示，任何货币政策正常化都应该是循序渐进的，并且只有在资产净购买结束之后才开始。de Cos表示，预计中期内通胀率不会持续高于2%的目标。兼任西班牙央行行长的de 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