FOMC前瞻：“亡羊补牢”式的收紧节奏持续？

格隆汇2022-01-26

备受瞩目的1月FOMC将于本周三举行、决议在本周四发出，预计“亡羊补牢”式的收紧节奏持续。美联储将于北京时间1月27日（周四）凌晨公布1月FOMC决议。我们预计联储可能在本次会议上进一步明确短期政策重心由“保就业”向“控通胀”倾斜；重申将“尽快”加息、年内可能启动缩表——这些表态将基本符合市场预期，短期内继续巩固联储的“鹰派”基调。如果本次议息联储释放出诸如“一次加息幅度可能大于25bp”、“最快...

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精彩评论

叫我發先生
2022-01-26
叫我發先生
Huathuat, pls givee me a like
458fd99c
2022-01-26
458fd99c
Hi
- 458fd99c:
  Hi
国之良栋
2022-01-26
国之良栋
要加赶紧加，磨磨叽叽，全球股市跟着陪葬，最好一次加7个点，加息预期透明点，你就说清楚加息计划
- harry1016:
  good
- 夜袭女儿国:
  漂亮国是有法律程序的，不是想加就加的，你因为跟我们一样啊哈哈哈

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control）。我们认为，本次议息可能进一步论述当前的经济环境“基本满足加息要求”，联储“可能很快加息”。市场正逐步消化联储超预期的“鹰派转向”，真实利率的钟摆在向上“找平台”，短期美债长端利率存在继续波动上行空间，虽然离均衡水平未必很远，但也可能超调。利率敏感及高估值风险资产仍面临调整压力。本次议息会议前，市场用近三周的时间初步“消化”了12月议息纪要及鲍威尔听证会释放的鹰派信号：美债名义利率曲线扁平上移、真实利率曲线上移更为明显。我们维持20210325《美债利率可能难抵“正常化”推力》中的判断，即美国10年期国债利率可能在1.9%-2.4%的水平附近找到“再平衡”的新平台。短期内，市场加息预期升温，联储可能“顺势而为”，较快收紧，但下半年未必如市场“线性外推”的预期一般维持鹰派立场。截至1月25日，联邦基金利率期货隐含预期为美联储到今年3月加息25bp、到6月加息56bp、到9月加息77bp，到12月加息97bp——即预期今年3月和6月各加息一次；全年加息4次。近期美债（真实）利率上升伴随着资金从美股快速撤离、美元走弱，而人民币汇率承受压力有限。往前看，权益资产层面的资金流动对美元指数的影响可能会开始减弱，不排除随着金融条件收紧，美元面临一定的升值压力，届时，金融条件收紧一段时间后，基本面也可能发生变化。美联储短期偏鹰，但中期未必。联储去年12月至今年1月间，180度地由“通胀暂时论”到“通胀猛于虎”的态度转变，由此看，联储对纠正自身误判持开放态度。其主要的观察指标是市场通胀预期变化。我们预期通胀先行指标将在1季度末后走弱，计入美联储的政策反应“滞后期”，转回中性政策取向可能在2022下半年。而市场寻找新的“利率平衡点”可能先于联储正式转向，届时金融资产价格波动率可能回落。一方面，今年二季度全球供应链有望再度全面重启，缓解滞胀压力（参见20220119《欧美确诊上升，但经济影响开始削减》）；另一方面，中国增长大幅降速的影响也可能在届时显现，传导至全球贸易和可贸易品价格，压低联储通胀预测模型中的“高通胀”概率。风险提示：美国金融条件收紧快于预期。","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":639128186,"gmtCreate":1643208784025,"gmtModify":1643208795907,"author":{"id":"3580035997152767","authorId":"3580035997152767","authorIdStr":"3580035997152767","name":"叫我發先生","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d5d159231e093de326a4e853f6306323","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3580035997152767"},"htmlText":"Huathuat, pls givee me a like","listText":"Huathuat, pls givee me a like","text":"Huathuat, pls givee me a 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