This indicator flashed warnings in 2000 and 2007 -- and it's buzzing now

MarketWatch2021-12-30

They don't ring a bell at the top, the expression goes, but here's an indicator that topped in 2000 and 2007.Falling margin debt growth has augured in stock-market declines in 2000 and 2007.It has to ...

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精彩评论

Onglie
2021-12-30
Onglie
Hmm
458fd99c
2021-12-30
458fd99c
All
- 458fd99c:
  Ok
Delfort
2021-12-30
Delfort
Thanks

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According to Ned Davis, senior investment strategist at Ned Davis Research, falling margin debt growth, from high levels, triggers a sell warning. When the 15-month rate of change in margin debt falls below 48%, the market was lower three to 18 months later, on average.Another warning sign is that price-to-earnings ratios on what the firm calls institutional grade stocks are stretched.Yet Davis can't quite bring himself to fully cloak himself in pessimism. Short-term sentiment is still negative, he points out, which usually is a good sign for markets.\"I would note however, that following any rally, a break of the December low is often a warning sign. So we will be watching the year-end rally closely,\" he says. The S&P 500 touched its lowest level for the 12th month on Dec. 3, when it reached 4,495.12.The chartIt's already out of date, but this chart showing all-time highs for the S&P 500  was picked by Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist of LPL Financial, as the chart of the year. 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