Netflix Rally in 2022 Hinges on Finding the Next ‘Squid Game’

Bloomberg2021-12-22

(Bloomberg) -- Fast-growing technology stocks have taken a beating in recent weeks -- and Netflix Inc. is no exception. Shares of the streaming giant are down 13% from a Nov. 17 record, in tandem with...

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精彩评论

limsyk
2021-12-27
limsyk
Korean dramas are a good investment for Netflix.
LaurenceHuat
2021-12-23
LaurenceHuat
Difficult
Huatahhuat
2021-12-23
Huatahhuat
Win
Huatahhuat
2021-12-23
Huatahhuat
Lol
Charging
2021-12-23
Charging
[smile]
zuma
2021-12-23
zuma
Nic3
- koolgal:
  Thanks
- Charging:
  [smile]

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Concerns over the omicron coronavirus variant have also pressured equities.\nThese forces have thrown the broad investment outlook for the start of 2022 into flux, but what hasn’t changed is the bullish view on Netflix shares. Wall Street’s optimism hinges on the company’s ability to lure new subscribers with best-in-class content, boosting margins and cash flow along the way.\nThe 12-month average analyst price target comes in at $683, which implies a 13% gain from Tuesday’s closing price of $604.92. 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After falling in the first half, the stock climbed to fresh highs on the unexpected success of South Korean show “Squid Game,” which became Netflix’s biggest series launch ever.\nShares had already started to climb in early August, with the stock riding a three-month, 33% rally as Wall Street began to appreciate the slew of shows and movies coming in the third and fourth quarters, including new seasons of “Money Heist” and “Sex Education,” said Wells Fargo Securities analyst Steven Cahall.\nCahall is among analysts that expect Netflix’s rally will continue, projecting that the stock will reach $800 by the end of 2022. Popular content, subscriber growth and margin expansion -- the longstanding yardsticks for the company --  will remain the catalysts for shares, he said.\n“All the revenue is based on content,” Cahall said in an interview. “The content is the majority of their costs. And so their ability to spend on content and generate new content is really what drives these business models.”\nFierce Competition\nFor Mark Stoeckle, chief executive officer and senior portfolio manager at Adams Funds, Netflix’s valuation and streaming competition are two factors that are keeping him from turning more bullish on the stock. The Adams Diversified Equity Fund is modestly overweight Netflix versus the S&P 500 Index after buying shares in September.\nNetflix trades around 46 times forward earnings. Although that’s down from a recent peak of nearly 54 times in October, it still tops the Nasdaq 100 at 28 times and the S&P 500 Communication Services Index at 19.6 times.\nDisney, whose flagship streaming service is widely seen as Netflix’s biggest competitor, has tumbled amid concerns that subscriber growth at Disney+ is slowing and as the variant threatens a return to theme parks. The stock is heading for its first annual decline since 2016 and its worst year since 2008.\nBoth Netflix and Disney face competition in 2022 from the direct-to-consumer service that will emerge from the merger of Discovery Inc. and AT&T Inc.’s WarnerMedia, according to Macquarie analyst Tim Nollen. Last month, he upgraded Discovery to outperform from neutral in anticipation of the deal which he said will create “one of the most broad-based content offerings.” He’s neutral on Netflix on valuation and rates Disney outperform based in part on an eventual rebound at its parks and the box office.\nBut ultimately, it’s nearly all about content, analysts say. The slate for 2022 includes new seasons for some of its biggest hits, including “Stranger Things” and “Bridgerton.”\n“I hate to say that these big media companies are just still in the hit business, but they are,” Cahall said.\nBuying Opportunities\nSelloffs are part of the equation, according to David Klink, senior equity analyst at Huntington National Bank, but he views them as buying opportunities for Netflix shares. Huntington Private Bank’s internal growth strategy added to its position in late November, he said.\nKlink had been worried that Netflix and other companies that were popular plays during Covid-19 lockdowns would struggle in 2021 as they faced tough year-over-year comparisons. Netflix proved those fears were overblown. 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