After a dazzling 2021, Apple and Tesla stocks are expected to be duds in 2022

MarketWatch2021-12-16

Here’s the outlook for the 25 stocks that have contributed more than half of the S&P 500 index’s gain this year Shares of Apple have returned 32% this year, while Tesla has risen 36%. Getty Images A ...

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Getty Images\nA ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/after-a-dazzling-2021-apple-and-tesla-stocks-are-expected-to-be-duds-in-2022-11639582194?mod=home-page\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"lsy1603348471595","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>After a dazzling 2021, Apple and Tesla stocks are expected to be duds in 2022</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAfter a dazzling 2021, Apple and Tesla stocks are expected to be duds in 2022\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-12-16 11:11 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/after-a-dazzling-2021-apple-and-tesla-stocks-are-expected-to-be-duds-in-2022-11639582194?mod=home-page><strong>MarketWatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Here’s the outlook for the 25 stocks that have contributed more than half of the S&P 500 index’s gain this year\nShares of Apple have returned 32% this year, while Tesla has risen 36%. Getty Images\nA ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/after-a-dazzling-2021-apple-and-tesla-stocks-are-expected-to-be-duds-in-2022-11639582194?mod=home-page\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"NVDA","symbol_name":"英伟达","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/after-a-dazzling-2021-apple-and-tesla-stocks-are-expected-to-be-duds-in-2022-11639582194?mod=home-page","article_id":"2191399540","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":null,"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2191399540","pubTimestamp":1639624268,"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"lsy1603348471595","name":"MarketWatch"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"Here’s the outlook for the 25 stocks that have contributed more than half of the S&P 500 index’s gai","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"marketwatch.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"NVDA":"英伟达","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","BK4515":"5G概念","BK4553":"喜马拉雅资本持仓","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4507":"流媒体概念","BK4555":"新能源车","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","GOOG":"谷歌","AAPL":"苹果","BK4566":"资本集团","GOOGL":"谷歌A","BK4527":"明星科技股","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","BK4501":"段永平概念","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","MSFT":"微软","BK4505":"高瓴资本持仓","BK4099":"汽车制造商","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","TSLA":"特斯拉","BK4170":"电脑硬件、储存设备及电脑周边"},"translate_title":"在经历了令人眼花缭乱的2021年后，苹果和Tesla股票预计将在2022年成为哑弹","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9,"NVDA":0.9,"MSFT":0.9,"GOOGL":0.9,"GOOG":0.9,"AAPL":0.9},"content_text":"Here’s the outlook for the 25 stocks that have contributed more than half of the S&P 500 index’s gain this year\nShares of Apple have returned 32% this year, while Tesla has risen 36%. Getty Images\nA report from Goldman Sachs shows how much of investors’ money is concentrated in only five high-flying stocks. And a screen of the biggest contributors to this year’s excellent performance for the S&P 500 index highlights two that are expected not to perform well in 2022: Apple and Tesla.\nJust five stocks — Microsoft Corp.,Alphabet Inc.,Apple Inc.,Nvidia Corp. and Tesla Inc. — contributed over a third of the S&P 500 Index’s 26% total return for 2021 through Dec. 9, according to analysts at Goldman. And from the end of April through Dec. 9, they contributed 51% of the index’s 13% return.\nMoreover, only 25 stocks accounted for 58% of the index’s gains, including reinvested dividends, through Dec. 9, Goldman said. Its list of those stocks is below, along with screens of Wall Street analysts’ expectations for the group as we look ahead to 2022 and 2023.\nThe analysts, led by David Kostin, pointed out that “market breadth has narrowed substantially” over the past several months. In other words, investors have concentrated more of their money (and risk) in the largest tech companies, by market capitalization.\nThat said, the Goldman analysts continue to recommend that long-term investors “own high-growth, high-margin stocks.”\nDigging into the 25 biggest contributors to the S&P 500’s returns this year\nThis list shows each of the 25 stocks and their “contributions” to the gains, expressed in basis points. (A basis point is one 100th of a percent. ) The table also includes pricing information — closing prices as of Dec. 14 with declines from 52-week highs and the dates of those highs.\n\n\n\nCompany\nTicker\nTotal return – 2021 through Dec. 9\nContribution to S&P 500’s return for 2021 through Dec. 9 (basis points)\nClosing Price – 12/14/21\nDecline from 52-week high\nDate of 52-week high\n\n\nMicrosoft Corp.\nMSFT\n51%\n271\n$328.34\n-6.1%\n11/22/2021\n\n\nAlphabet Inc. Class A\nGOOGL\n68%\n224\n$2,878.14\n-4.7%\n11/19/2021\n\n\nApple Inc.\nAAPL\n32%\n217\n$174.33\n-4.3%\n12/13/2021\n\n\nNvidia Corp.\nNVDA\n134%\n137\n$283.37\n-18.2%\n11/22/2021\n\n\nTesla Inc.\nTSLA\n42%\n71\n$958.51\n-22.9%\n11/04/2021\n\n\nHome Depot Inc.\nHD\n58%\n52\n$402.20\n-4.4%\n12/06/2021\n\n\nMeta Platforms Inc. Class A\nFB\n21%\n43\n$333.74\n-13.2%\n09/01/2021\n\n\nUnitedHealth Group Inc.\nUNH\n37%\n39\n$479.46\n-0.7%\n12/14/2021\n\n\nBank of America Corp\nBAC\n50%\n36\n$44.13\n-9.4%\n11/03/2021\n\n\nJPMorgan Chase & Co.\nJPM\n29%\n36\n$159.13\n-8.0%\n10/25/2021\n\n\nExxon Mobil Corp.\nXOM\n61%\n34\n$61.54\n-7.3%\n11/08/2021\n\n\nBerkshire Hathaway Inc. Class B\nBRK\n23%\n32\n$295.03\n-0.5%\n12/14/2021\n\n\nAmazon.com Inc.\nAMZN\n7%\n31\n$3,381.83\n-10.4%\n07/13/2021\n\n\nPfizer Inc.\nPFE\n47%\n30\n$55.54\n-0.7%\n12/14/2021\n\n\nWells Fargo & Co.\nWFC\n67%\n26\n$48.89\n-7.0%\n11/03/2021\n\n\nChevron Corp.\nCVX\n47%\n24\n$116.22\n-2.5%\n12/08/2021\n\n\nIntuit Inc.\nINTU\n76%\n24\n$639.48\n-10.8%\n11/19/2021\n\n\nLowe’s Companies Inc.\nLOW\n63%\n23\n$252.46\n-4.1%\n12/13/2021\n\n\nAccenture Plc Class A\nACN\n44%\n23\n$369.73\n-3.0%\n12/13/2021\n\n\nThermo Fisher Scientific Inc.\nTMO\n37%\n22\n$632.11\n-5.2%\n11/26/2021\n\n\nCostco Wholesale Corp.\nCOST\n40%\n21\n$545.34\n-2.8%\n12/10/2021\n\n\nBroadcom Inc.\nAVGO\n36%\n20\n$614.91\n-4.6%\n12/10/2021\n\n\nAdobe Inc.\nADBE\n26%\n20\n$614.86\n-12.1%\n11/22/2021\n\n\nDanaher Corp.\nDHR\n44%\n20\n$307.70\n-7.9%\n09/10/2021\n\n\nEli Lilly and Co.\nLLY\n46%\n19\n$249.38\n-9.6%\n08/17/2021\n\n\n\nSources: Goldman Sachs, FactSet\n\n\n\nWe included the declines from 52-week highs through Dec. 14 to illustrate how volatile the stocks of rapidly growing tech giants can be. Shares of Nvidia, for example, were down 18% from the high reached Nov. 22. Tesla has tumbled into bear-market territory three times in 2021 and is down 23% from its high reached Nov. 4.\nLeaving the list in the same order, here are consensus estimates among analysts polled by FactSet for sales (in millions of dollars) for calendar years through 2023, with projected compound annual growth rates (CAGR):\n\n\n\nCompany\nTicker\nEstimated revenue – 2021\nEstimated revenue – 2022\nEstimated revenue – 2023\nTwo-year estimated sales CAGR\n\n\nMicrosoft Corp.\nMSFT\n$182,593\n$210,753\n$240,396\n14.7%\n\n\nAlphabet Inc. Class A\nGOOGL\n$254,060\n$296,677\n$341,671\n16.0%\n\n\nApple Inc.\nAAPL\n$369,729\n$389,037\n$413,789\n5.8%\n\n\nNvidia Corp.\nNVDA\n$25,754\n$31,175\n$36,380\n18.9%\n\n\nTesla Inc.\nTSLA\n$51,678\n$73,183\n$89,639\n31.7%\n\n\nHome Depot Inc.\nHD\n$148,615\n$153,285\n$158,252\n3.2%\n\n\nMeta Platforms Inc. Class A\nFB\n$117,569\n$139,805\n$164,737\n18.4%\n\n\nUnitedHealth Group Inc.\nUNH\n$286,410\n$316,412\n$342,740\n9.4%\n\n\nBank of America Corp\nBAC\n$89,268\n$93,591\n$99,180\n5.4%\n\n\nJPMorgan Chase & Co.\nJPM\n$123,128\n$123,405\n$130,270\n2.9%\n\n\nExxon Mobil Corp.\nXOM\n$294,130\n$308,304\n$292,830\n-0.2%\n\n\nBerkshire Hathaway Inc. Class B\nBRK\n$294,667\n$294,894\n$309,287\n2.5%\n\n\nAmazon.com Inc.\nAMZN\n$470,607\n$553,097\n$649,246\n17.5%\n\n\nPfizer Inc.\nPFE\n$81,333\n$92,070\n$72,748\n-5.4%\n\n\nWells Fargo & Co.\nWFC\n$76,024\n$72,048\n$75,462\n-0.4%\n\n\nChevron Corp.\nCVX\n$155,748\n$168,114\n$159,898\n1.3%\n\n\nIntuit Inc.\nINTU\n$10,714\n$12,980\n$14,881\n17.9%\n\n\nLowe’s Companies Inc.\nLOW\n$95,152\n$97,459\n$100,080\n2.6%\n\n\nAccenture Plc Class A\nACN\n$52,819\n$58,906\n$63,622\n9.8%\n\n\nThermo Fisher Scientific Inc.\nTMO\n$37,210\n$39,493\n$42,053\n6.3%\n\n\nCostco Wholesale Corp.\nCOST\n$203,027\n$222,877\n$238,794\n8.5%\n\n\nBroadcom Inc.\nAVGO\n$27,976\n$30,877\n$32,521\n7.8%\n\n\nAdobe Inc.\nADBE\n$15,957\n$18,393\n$21,000\n14.7%\n\n\nDanaher Corp.\nDHR\n$29,116\n$30,792\n$32,437\n5.5%\n\n\nEli Lilly and Co.\nLLY\n$27,601\n$27,774\n$30,366\n4.9%\n\n\n\nSource: FactSet\nHere’s another look ahead, this time at earnings-per-share estimates\n\n\n\nCompany\nTicker\nEstimated EPS – 2021\nEstimated EPS – 2022\nEstimated EPS – 2023\nTwo-year estimated EPS CAGR\n\n\nMicrosoft Corp.\nMSFT\n$8.60\n$9.85\n$11.44\n15.3%\n\n\nAlphabet Inc. Class A\nGOOGL\n$108.65\n$113.97\n$130.48\n9.6%\n\n\nApple Inc.\nAAPL\n$5.64\n$5.85\n$6.27\n5.4%\n\n\nNvidia Corp.\nNVDA\n$4.18\n$5.08\n$6.15\n21.3%\n\n\nTesla Inc.\nTSLA\n$5.99\n$8.64\n$11.46\n38.3%\n\n\nHome Depot Inc.\nHD\n$15.17\n$16.13\n$17.30\n6.8%\n\n\nMeta Platforms Inc. Class A\nFB\n$13.94\n$14.24\n$16.94\n10.3%\n\n\nUnitedHealth Group Inc.\nUNH\n$18.84\n$21.63\n$24.58\n14.2%\n\n\nBank of America Corp\nBAC\n$3.52\n$3.19\n$3.63\n1.5%\n\n\nJPMorgan Chase & Co.\nJPM\n$14.98\n$12.03\n$13.23\n-6.0%\n\n\nExxon Mobil Corp.\nXOM\n$5.03\n$5.79\n$5.59\n5.4%\n\n\nBerkshire Hathaway Inc. Class B\nBRK\n$11.65\n$12.63\n$14.13\n10.1%\n\n\nAmazon.com Inc.\nAMZN\n$41.31\n$51.54\n$76.68\n36.2%\n\n\nPfizer Inc.\nPFE\n$4.19\n$5.75\n$4.87\n7.8%\n\n\nWells Fargo & Co.\nWFC\n$4.63\n$3.72\n$4.41\n-2.4%\n\n\nChevron Corp.\nCVX\n$8.36\n$9.42\n$8.78\n2.5%\n\n\nIntuit Inc.\nINTU\n$10.56\n$12.51\n$14.70\n18.0%\n\n\nLowe’s Companies Inc.\nLOW\n$11.71\n$12.86\n$14.40\n10.9%\n\n\nAccenture Plc Class A\nACN\n$9.25\n$10.48\n$11.59\n11.9%\n\n\nThermo Fisher Scientific Inc.\nTMO\n$23.45\n$21.17\n$23.34\n-0.2%\n\n\nCostco Wholesale Corp.\nCOST\n$11.63\n$13.06\n$14.33\n11.0%\n\n\nBroadcom Inc.\nAVGO\n$28.83\n$33.53\n$36.69\n12.8%\n\n\nAdobe Inc.\nADBE\n$12.63\n$14.47\n$16.88\n15.6%\n\n\nDanaher Corp.\nDHR\n$9.82\n$10.16\n$10.72\n4.5%\n\n\nEli Lilly and Co.\nLLY\n$8.02\n$8.13\n$9.71\n10.1%\n\n\n\nSource: FactSet\nHere’s a summary of Wall Street analysts’ opinions about the stocks:\n\n\n\nCompany\nTicker\nShare “buy” ratings\nShare neutral ratings\nShare “sell” ratings\nClosing price – 12/14/21\nConsensus price target\nImplied 12-month upside potential\n\n\nMicrosoft Corp.\nMSFT\n90%\n10%\n0%\n$328.34\n$366.41\n12%\n\n\nAlphabet Inc. Class A\nGOOGL\n94%\n6%\n0%\n$2,878.14\n$3,333.70\n16%\n\n\nApple Inc.\nAAPL\n79%\n19%\n2%\n$174.33\n$174.35\n0%\n\n\nNvidia Corp.\nNVDA\n81%\n12%\n7%\n$283.37\n$341.51\n21%\n\n\nTesla Inc.\nTSLA\n43%\n30%\n28%\n$958.51\n$860.35\n-10%\n\n\nHome Depot Inc.\nHD\n65%\n32%\n3%\n$402.20\n$417.16\n4%\n\n\nMeta Platforms Inc. Class A\nFB\n76%\n22%\n2%\n$333.74\n$398.32\n19%\n\n\nUnitedHealth Group Inc.\nUNH\n85%\n11%\n4%\n$479.46\n$490.88\n2%\n\n\nBank of America Corp\nBAC\n64%\n25%\n11%\n$44.13\n$49.83\n13%\n\n\nJPMorgan Chase & Co.\nJPM\n61%\n32%\n7%\n$159.13\n$179.70\n13%\n\n\nExxon Mobil Corp.\nXOM\n39%\n51%\n10%\n$61.54\n$72.97\n19%\n\n\nBerkshire Hathaway Inc. Class B\nBRK\n43%\n57%\n0%\n$295.03\n$332.50\n13%\n\n\nAmazon.com Inc.\nAMZN\n94%\n6%\n0%\n$3,381.83\n$4,102.98\n21%\n\n\nPfizer Inc.\nPFE\n38%\n58%\n4%\n$55.54\n$53.67\n-3%\n\n\nWells Fargo & Co.\nWFC\n67%\n33%\n0%\n$48.89\n$54.90\n12%\n\n\nChevron Corp.\nCVX\n68%\n32%\n0%\n$116.22\n$130.36\n12%\n\n\nIntuit Inc.\nINTU\n83%\n13%\n4%\n$639.48\n$756.29\n18%\n\n\nLowe’s Companies Inc.\nLOW\n73%\n24%\n3%\n$252.46\n$272.43\n8%\n\n\nAccenture Plc Class A\nACN\n70%\n26%\n4%\n$369.73\n$383.68\n4%\n\n\nThermo Fisher Scientific Inc.\nTMO\n83%\n13%\n4%\n$632.11\n$682.47\n8%\n\n\nCostco Wholesale Corp.\nCOST\n59%\n35%\n6%\n$545.34\n$551.75\n1%\n\n\nBroadcom Inc.\nAVGO\n84%\n13%\n3%\n$614.91\n$682.70\n11%\n\n\nAdobe Inc.\nADBE\n81%\n19%\n0%\n$614.86\n$720.69\n17%\n\n\nDanaher Corp.\nDHR\n82%\n14%\n4%\n$307.70\n$350.29\n14%\n\n\nEli Lilly and Co.\nLLY\n67%\n28%\n5%\n$249.38\n$279.72\n12%\n\n\n\nSource: FactSet\nHere are six data highlights to consider:\n\nTwo of this year’s best performers are expected to be poor performers next year, based on the price targets: Apple and Tesla.\nApple is expected to show much slower sales and earnings growth than the rest of the top five companies on the list through 2023.\nTesla’s expected two-year sales CAGR of 31.7% is by far the highest on the list. But only 43% of analysts polled by FactSet rate the stock a “buy.”\nTesla also has the highest expected EPS CAGR through 2023 at 38.3%, but Amazon.com Inc. is right behind, with a projected EPS CAGR of 36.2%. Next on the list by this measure is Nvidia, at 21.3%.\nFrom the price targets, Nvidia and Amazon are Wall Street analysts’ favorite stocks on the list, with implied 12-month upside of 21%.\nPfizer Inc.’s sales are expected to rise in 2022 but fall in 2023 to a level below that of 2021, according to analysts polled by FactSet. 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