明年美股走势如何？华尔街分歧之大，近十年罕见

华尔街见闻2021-12-09

当站在货币政策转折点的美联储遇上来势汹汹的病毒新变种，一切便充满了未知和变数，也使得华尔街对明年美股市场走势产生了巨大的分歧。据彭博统计，截至目前，机构对明年标普500指数的预测区间在4400点至5300点之间，高低点之间相差高达20%，是过去十年里第二大的区间幅度。不过整体而言，看多情绪仍占主导。据路透近日一份调查显示，分析师对2022年年底标普500指数的预测中值为4910点，较周三收盘价...

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Wall Street is so divided that it is rare in recent ten years","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a4318899c7198ff269ec5ae53f97d253","symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.9,"513500":0.9,"SH":0.9,"OEF":0.9,"OEX":0.9,"PSQ":0.9,"QID":0.9,"QLD":0.9,"QQQ":0.9,"SDOW":0.9,"SDS":0.9,"IVV":0.9,"SPXU":0.9,"SPY":0.9,"SQQQ":0.9,"SSO":0.9,"TQQQ":0.9,"UDOW":0.9,"UPRO":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"NQmain":0.9,"MNQmain":0.9,"ESmain":0.9,"DXD":0.9,"DOG":0.9,"DJX":0.9,"DDM":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9},"content_text":"当站在货币政策转折点的美联储遇上来势汹汹的病毒新变种，一切便充满了未知和变数，也使得华尔街对明年美股市场走势产生了巨大的分歧。\n据彭博统计，截至目前，机构对明年标普500指数的预测区间在4400点至5300点之间，高低点之间相差高达20%，是过去十年里第二大的区间幅度。\n不过整体而言，看多情绪仍占主导。据路透近日一份调查显示，分析师对2022年年底标普500指数的预测中值为4910点，较周三收盘价仍有4%的涨幅。\n这一预测高于8月底路透调查预期的4725点，但值得一提的是，部分预测是在奥密克戎变体病毒爆出之前作出的。\n截至周三收盘，标普500指数报4701点，年初至今上涨27%。\n\n多空分歧巨大\n对于明年美股走势，瑞信、高盛等投行处于看多阵营，而美银和大摩则相对悲观。\n近日，瑞士信贷美国首席策略师Jonathan Golub将标普500指数2022年目标点位上调了200点，至5200点，理由是企业盈利前景改善，金融环境宽松。\n高盛首席股票策略师David Kostin则预计，标普500指数将在2022年底达到5100点，较目前点位有8%的涨幅。\n站在看空一方，美银对标普500的2022年目标点位预测为4600点，在华尔街预测中处于较低水平，低于周三收盘点位2%。\n摩根士丹利首席股票策略师Mike Wilson则更加悲观，他预计2022年底标普500指数目标点位为4400。\n对于明年美股市场的波动率，分析师们也存在较大分歧。\n摩根大通Marko Kolanovic分析师团队认为，明年随着疫情结束、经济全面复苏，市场波动将会消退。\n大摩的Wilson则认为，明年波动性将更加显著地上升，随着盈利增长放缓、债券收益率攀升以及企业应对供应链中断和投入成本上升，股市将更加动荡。\n瑞银股票策略师Keith Parker则预计，标普500指数将在2022年上半年达到创纪录的5000点，然后在年底回落至4850点。\n独立研究机构Ned Davis Research分析师Ed Clissold在最新报告中表示：\n\n “几乎可以肯定，2022年的市场环境不会像现在这样有利。我们预计上涨步伐将放缓，回调将更加频繁，出现两位数回调的可能性很高，出现浅熊市的现实可能性也很高。”\n\n尽管Clissold处于看多阵营，他预计标准普尔500指数明年将收于5000点，但在此之前该指数将至少下跌10%。\n市场进入未知领域\n过去两周市场的动荡或许已经预示了明年美股注定不平静。\n一方面，投资者面临着一个过去三年以来从未见识过的鹰派美联储。上个月底，美联储主席鲍威尔在听证会释放鹰派言论，称“是时候放弃通胀‘暂时性’这个词了”，并表示可能提前几个月完成Taper。\n鲍威尔这一鹰派言论令市场意外，人们普遍认为鲍威尔会在新变种病毒面前维持鸽派立场。当时，美股、黄金、美债价格急跌，市场加息预期急剧升温，美债收益率曲线迅速趋平。\n另一方面，对于新变种奥密克戎的未知也增加了市场的不确定性。新变种毒性如何，疫苗和特效药是否依然有效，这些未解的问题都将影响经济形势以及政策路径。\n彭博援引经纪商TD Prime Services董事Joshua Leonardi表示:\n\n “目前有越来越多的变量在发挥作用，无论是美联储的政策、通胀，还是在应对流行病时出现的那种持续摇摆不定的局面。”\n\n这一切意味着，市场正在进入一个没有先例可循的未知地带，很难完全参照以往规律。","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":602232342,"gmtCreate":1639024311498,"gmtModify":1639024311498,"author":{"id":"3576924513004067","authorId":"3576924513004067","name":"Fattkhong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/103cabc985ecc134ed2de3f8a949d852","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3576924513004067","authorIdStr":"3576924513004067"},"htmlText":"[开心]&nbsp;","listText":"[开心]&nbsp;","text":"[开心]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/602232342","repostId":2190969929,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2190969929","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1639018527,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2190969929?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-09 10:55","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"明年美股走势如何？华尔街分歧之大，近十年罕见","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2190969929","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"当站在货币政策转折点的美联储遇上来势汹汹的病毒新变种，一切便充满了未知和变数，也使得华尔街对明年美股市场走势产生了巨大的分歧。\n据彭博统计，截至目前，机构对明年标普500指数的预测区间在4400点至5","content":"<p>当站在货币政策转折点的美联储遇上来势汹汹的病毒新变种，一切便充满了未知和变数，也使得华尔街对明年美股市场走势产生了巨大的分歧。</p>\n<p>据彭博统计，截至目前，<b>机构对明年标普500指数的预测区间在4400点至5300点之间，高低点之间相差高达20%，是过去十年里第二大的区间幅度。</b></p>\n<p>不过整体而言，看多情绪仍占主导。据路透近日一份调查显示，分析师对2022年年底标普500指数的预测中值为4910点，较周三收盘价仍有4%的涨幅。</p>\n<p>这一预测高于8月底路透调查预期的4725点，但值得一提的是，部分预测是在奥密克戎变体病毒爆出之前作出的。</p>\n<p>截至周三收盘，标普500指数报4701点，年初至今上涨27%。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a884e7d8725fdda9c53d58700a6e4e22\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<h2>多空分歧巨大</h2>\n<p><b>对于明年美股走势，瑞信、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">高盛</a>等投行处于看多阵营，而美银和大摩则相对悲观。</b></p>\n<p>近日，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CS\">瑞士信贷</a>美国首席策略师Jonathan Golub将标普500指数2022年目标点位上调了200点，至5200点，理由是企业盈利前景改善，金融环境宽松。</p>\n<p>高盛首席股票策略师David Kostin则预计，标普500指数将在2022年底达到5100点，较目前点位有8%的涨幅。</p>\n<p>站在看空一方，美银对标普500的2022年目标点位预测为4600点，在华尔街预测中处于较低水平，低于周三收盘点位2%。</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">摩根士丹利</a>首席股票策略师Mike Wilson则更加悲观，他预计2022年底标普500指数目标点位为4400。</p>\n<p><b>对于明年美股市场的波动率，分析师们也存在较大分歧。</b></p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">摩根大通</a>Marko Kolanovic分析师团队认为，明年随着疫情结束、经济全面复苏，市场波动将会消退。</p>\n<p>大摩的Wilson则认为，明年波动性将更加显著地上升，随着盈利增长放缓、债券收益率攀升以及企业应对供应链中断和投入成本上升，股市将更加动荡。</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UBS\">瑞银</a>股票策略师Keith Parker则预计，标普500指数将在2022年上半年达到创纪录的5000点，然后在年底回落至4850点。</p>\n<p>独立研究机构Ned Davis Research分析师Ed Clissold在最新报告中表示：</p>\n<blockquote>\n “几乎可以肯定，2022年的市场环境不会像现在这样有利。我们预计上涨步伐将放缓，回调将更加频繁，出现两位数回调的可能性很高，出现浅熊市的现实可能性也很高。”\n</blockquote>\n<p>尽管Clissold处于看多阵营，他预计标准普尔500指数明年将收于5000点，但在此之前该指数将至少下跌10%。</p>\n<h2>市场进入未知领域</h2>\n<p>过去两周市场的动荡或许已经预示了明年美股注定不平静。</p>\n<p><b>一方面，投资者面临着一个过去三年以来从未见识过的鹰派美联储。</b>上个月底，美联储主席鲍威尔在听证会释放鹰派言论，称“是时候放弃通胀‘暂时性’这个词了”，并表示可能提前几个月完成Taper。</p>\n<p>鲍威尔这一鹰派言论令市场意外，人们普遍认为鲍威尔会在新变种病毒面前维持鸽派立场。当时，美股、黄金、美债价格急跌，市场加息预期急剧升温，美债收益率曲线迅速趋平。</p>\n<p><b>另一方面，对于新变种奥密克戎的未知也增加了市场的不确定性。</b>新变种毒性如何，疫苗和特效药是否依然有效，这些未解的问题都将影响经济形势以及政策路径。</p>\n<p>彭博援引经纪商TD Prime Services董事Joshua Leonardi表示:</p>\n<blockquote>\n “目前有越来越多的变量在发挥作用，无论是美联储的政策、通胀，还是在应对流行病时出现的那种持续摇摆不定的局面。”\n</blockquote>\n<p>这一切意味着，市场正在进入一个没有先例可循的未知地带，很难完全参照以往规律。</p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta 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float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n明年美股走势如何？华尔街分歧之大，近十年罕见\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-12-09 10:55 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3646877><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>当站在货币政策转折点的美联储遇上来势汹汹的病毒新变种，一切便充满了未知和变数，也使得华尔街对明年美股市场走势产生了巨大的分歧。\n据彭博统计，截至目前，机构对明年标普500指数的预测区间在4400点至5300点之间，高低点之间相差高达20%，是过去十年里第二大的区间幅度。\n不过整体而言，看多情绪仍占主导。据路透近日一份调查显示，分析师对2022年年底标普500指数的预测中值为4910点，较周三收盘价...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3646877\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fd680cd945fd32917c8ece66ec685e5f","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","QLD":"纳指两倍做多ETF","SPY":"标普500ETF","PSQ":"纳指反向ETF","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","SDOW":"道指三倍做空ETF-ProShares","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","DDM":"道指两倍做多ETF","SDS":"两倍做空标普500ETF","UDOW":"道指三倍做多ETF-ProShares",".DJI":"道琼斯","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF","QQQ":"纳指100ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","OEX":"标普100","BK4504":"桥水持仓","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","DOG":"道指反向ETF","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","QID":"纳指两倍做空ETF","SH":"标普500反向ETF","SSO":"两倍做多标普500ETF","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","DXD":"道指两倍做空ETF","IVV":"标普500指数ETF","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3646877","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2190969929","content_text":"当站在货币政策转折点的美联储遇上来势汹汹的病毒新变种，一切便充满了未知和变数，也使得华尔街对明年美股市场走势产生了巨大的分歧。\n据彭博统计，截至目前，机构对明年标普500指数的预测区间在4400点至5300点之间，高低点之间相差高达20%，是过去十年里第二大的区间幅度。\n不过整体而言，看多情绪仍占主导。据路透近日一份调查显示，分析师对2022年年底标普500指数的预测中值为4910点，较周三收盘价仍有4%的涨幅。\n这一预测高于8月底路透调查预期的4725点，但值得一提的是，部分预测是在奥密克戎变体病毒爆出之前作出的。\n截至周三收盘，标普500指数报4701点，年初至今上涨27%。\n\n多空分歧巨大\n对于明年美股走势，瑞信、高盛等投行处于看多阵营，而美银和大摩则相对悲观。\n近日，瑞士信贷美国首席策略师Jonathan Golub将标普500指数2022年目标点位上调了200点，至5200点，理由是企业盈利前景改善，金融环境宽松。\n高盛首席股票策略师David Kostin则预计，标普500指数将在2022年底达到5100点，较目前点位有8%的涨幅。\n站在看空一方，美银对标普500的2022年目标点位预测为4600点，在华尔街预测中处于较低水平，低于周三收盘点位2%。\n摩根士丹利首席股票策略师Mike Wilson则更加悲观，他预计2022年底标普500指数目标点位为4400。\n对于明年美股市场的波动率，分析师们也存在较大分歧。\n摩根大通Marko Kolanovic分析师团队认为，明年随着疫情结束、经济全面复苏，市场波动将会消退。\n大摩的Wilson则认为，明年波动性将更加显著地上升，随着盈利增长放缓、债券收益率攀升以及企业应对供应链中断和投入成本上升，股市将更加动荡。\n瑞银股票策略师Keith Parker则预计，标普500指数将在2022年上半年达到创纪录的5000点，然后在年底回落至4850点。\n独立研究机构Ned Davis Research分析师Ed Clissold在最新报告中表示：\n\n “几乎可以肯定，2022年的市场环境不会像现在这样有利。我们预计上涨步伐将放缓，回调将更加频繁，出现两位数回调的可能性很高，出现浅熊市的现实可能性也很高。”\n\n尽管Clissold处于看多阵营，他预计标准普尔500指数明年将收于5000点，但在此之前该指数将至少下跌10%。\n市场进入未知领域\n过去两周市场的动荡或许已经预示了明年美股注定不平静。\n一方面，投资者面临着一个过去三年以来从未见识过的鹰派美联储。上个月底，美联储主席鲍威尔在听证会释放鹰派言论，称“是时候放弃通胀‘暂时性’这个词了”，并表示可能提前几个月完成Taper。\n鲍威尔这一鹰派言论令市场意外，人们普遍认为鲍威尔会在新变种病毒面前维持鸽派立场。当时，美股、黄金、美债价格急跌，市场加息预期急剧升温，美债收益率曲线迅速趋平。\n另一方面，对于新变种奥密克戎的未知也增加了市场的不确定性。新变种毒性如何，疫苗和特效药是否依然有效，这些未解的问题都将影响经济形势以及政策路径。\n彭博援引经纪商TD Prime Services董事Joshua Leonardi表示:\n\n 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