美联储紧缩！债市已经准备好了，美股还没有

华尔街见闻2021-12-12

面对39年来最高的通胀数据水平，美联储不得不加快收紧货币政策，正在准备新一轮的加息周期。与此同时，债市交易员押注加快加息将抑制经济增长，美债收益率曲线趋平。然而，股市无惧通胀延续爆表态势，周五三大股指结束三连阴，标普500指数收于纪录高位。分析人士表示不太认同美联储和其他央行过于激进的措施会扼杀复苏的观点。警钟敲响！美债收益率曲线趋平本季度5年期和30年期美债收益率之间的利差不断缩小，...

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JackJiang
2021-12-13
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Youn7276
2021-12-13
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莫小七
2021-12-13
莫小七
时刻准备着
Tome
2021-12-12
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The bond market is ready, but the US stock market is not yet","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/666f6947551f01f9f8bde6d5fc78c2f0","symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.9,"513500":0.9,"SDS":0.9,"IVV":0.9,"OEF":0.9,"OEX":0.9,"PSQ":0.9,"QID":0.9,"QLD":0.9,"QQQ":0.9,"SDOW":0.9,"NQmain":0.9,"SH":0.9,"SPXU":0.9,"SPY":0.9,"SQQQ":0.9,"SSO":0.9,"TQQQ":0.9,"UDOW":0.9,"UPRO":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"03141":0.9,"09141":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"DDM":0.9,"DJX":0.9,"DOG":0.9,"DXD":0.9,"ESmain":0.9,"MNQmain":0.9},"content_text":"面对39年来最高的通胀数据水平，美联储不得不加快收紧货币政策，正在准备新一轮的加息周期。\n与此同时，债市交易员押注加快加息将抑制经济增长，美债收益率曲线趋平。\n然而，股市无惧通胀延续爆表态势，周五三大股指结束三连阴，标普500指数收于纪录高位。分析人士表示不太认同美联储和其他央行过于激进的措施会扼杀复苏的观点。\n警钟敲响！美债收益率曲线趋平 \n本季度5年期和30年期美债收益率之间的利差不断缩小，目前该曲线接近2020年3月以来的最平水平，这表明债市交易员押注加快加息将抑制经济增长。截至周五收盘，5年期美债收益率为1.253%，30年期美债收益率为1.882%。\n\n\n彭博社指出，市场预测如果美联储在2022年中期开始加息，那么美债收益率曲线在美联储紧缩开始时将处于这一代人以来最平坦的水平。目前两年期、10 年期美债利差约为83个基点。\n美债收益率趋平和长期收益率水平都表明，投资者认为央行在停止宽松政策之前无法做太多事情，此外，如果供应链危机仍未解除、奥密克戎蔓延等因素继续威胁复苏，经济很可能出现衰退。\n整个曲线的收益率远低于美联储2.5%的长期政策利率预测，甚至低于2024年的1.8%的预测，下周三，美联储将更新预测。\n据彭博社文章，研究机构MacroPolicy Perspectives总裁Julia Coronado表示，收益率曲线将成为美联储考虑的一个因素。她说：\n\n “这是经济的领先指标。它并没有让一切都正确，但你也不会想要完全忽略它。”\n\n另外，周五，美国五年期盈亏平衡利率为 2.80%，表明未来几年的通胀率高于政策制定者2%的目标。这样的结果将使投资者降低常规美债的折扣，目前10年期美债收益率低于1.5%。\n仍在上行的股市\n在债市对美联储收紧政策、供应链危机仍未解除、奥密克戎蔓延感到焦虑的同时，股市却在上演新一轮的狂欢。\n周五，三大股指结束三连阴，标普500指数收于纪录高位。截至收盘，道指上涨0.6%，报35971.0点；标普500指数上涨1%，报4712.0点；纳指上涨0.7%，收于15630.6点。\n许多人表示股票交易活力旺盛，在一定程度上与经济复苏强劲有关。\n据彭博社，基金公司Mediolanum International Funds市场策略主管Brian O'Reilly表示：“这（债市）是对短期利率将上升的预测，以及美联储和其他央行过于激进的举动可能会扼杀复苏的风险预测。” “这是债券市场所说的。我不一定同意。”\n此外，量化分析研究机构Ned Davis Research的策略师称，随着经济增长放缓，收益率曲线趋于平缓是有充分理由的。这表明大盘股将击败较小的同行，稳定增长的股票将在2022年跑赢周期性价值股。\nO'Reilly还指出，美联储收紧政策可能会抑制对投机性技术大风险投资。但是，经济数据表明美联储的决定可能并不会阻止经济复苏。\n\n 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