通胀爆表！摩根大通上调美联储首次加息的预期时间

华尔街见闻2021-12-11

随着周五公布的美国11月CPI迎来近40年来高位，加上周二公布的10月美国出口的急剧增加导致当月贸易逆差大降等多重因素作用，美联储或将在明年1月起将taper速度翻倍已成华尔街共识，对于美联储何时加息的押注再成焦点。美东时间周五，摩根大通 JPMorgan Chase & Co.将其对美联储首次加息的预测从明年9月上调至6月，其首席美国经济学家Michael Feroli称，预计首次加息之后“将...

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SDLiuSG
2021-12-12
SDLiuSG
666
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whalePower
2021-12-11
whalePower
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  好
Sen001
2021-12-11
Sen001
阅
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  [财迷]
yoyo6969
2021-12-11
yoyo6969
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JPMorgan Chase raised the expected time for the Fed to raise interest rates for the first time","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/590ab151ed7378da0777dd659adbf0b7","symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.9,"513500":0.9,"SH":0.9,"OEF":0.9,"OEX":0.9,"PSQ":0.9,"QID":0.9,"QLD":0.9,"QQQ":0.9,"SDOW":0.9,"SDS":0.9,"IVV":0.9,"SPXU":0.9,"SPY":0.9,"SQQQ":0.9,"SSO":0.9,"TQQQ":0.9,"UDOW":0.9,"UPRO":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"NQmain":0.9,"MNQmain":0.9,"ESmain":0.9,"DXD":0.9,"DOG":0.9,"DJX":0.9,"DDM":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9},"content_text":"随着周五公布的美国11月CPI迎来近40年来高位，加上周二公布的10月美国出口的急剧增加导致当月贸易逆差大降等多重因素作用，美联储或将在明年1月起将taper速度翻倍已成华尔街共识，对于美联储何时加息的押注再成焦点。\n美东时间周五，摩根大通 JPMorgan Chase & Co.将其对美联储首次加息的预测从明年9月上调至6月，其首席美国经济学家Michael Feroli称，预计首次加息之后“将以季度性的速度加息\"。\n在下周美联储公开市场委员会会议FOMC之前，摩根大通预计美联储将加快缩减资产购买的步伐，达到 \"每月300亿美元\"，并在 \"3月中旬 \"结束这一进程。\n同日发布的美国11月消费者物价指数CPI同比大涨6.8%，创1982年6月以来的39年最高，也是连续第六个月超过5%。排除食品和能源的核心CPI同比增4.9%，创1991年以来最大涨幅。\n虽然美国总统拜登表示，CPI据并未能完全体现能源价格的大幅下降，而且他还预计美国的物价上涨已经达到顶峰，并将比美国人预期的更快减速；但是市场上调联储加息时间可能是对通胀的进一步担忧，如摩根大通所称：\n\n （美联储）加快缩减（资产购债）的动机将反映出对经济预测的修订，我们预计这将普遍显示对失业率的预测降低，对通货膨胀的预测提高。\n\n同时，该行预计美联储将在2022年寻求两次或三次加息：\n\n 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