国盛宏观：美国通胀即将迎来拐点

格隆汇2021-12-12

事件：北京时间12月10日21:30，美国公布11月CPI数据。核心结论： 1、美国11月未季调CPI同比6.8%，符合预期，高于前值6.2%；核心CPI同比4.9%，符合预期，高于前值4.6%。分项来看，能源和二手车依然是涨幅最大的两个分项，食品价格同比涨幅也有所扩大，服务分项价格上涨不明显。 2、美国CPI数据公布后，美元指数和美债收益率均快速下行，美联储加息预期小幅降温。背后的逻辑在于，...

网页链接

免责声明：本文观点仅代表作者个人观点，不构成本平台的投资建议，本平台不对文章信息准确性、完整性和及时性做出任何保证，亦不对因使用或信赖文章信息引发的任何损失承担责任。

精彩评论

thomaschai
2021-12-13
thomaschai
Yyy
AdelineLing
2021-12-13
AdelineLing
留意
E1
2021-12-13
E1
Yes
- thomaschai:
  yy
Youn7276
2021-12-13
Youn7276
阅
Tummy
2021-12-12
Tummy
赞👍
- Tummy:
  赞👍
- Tummy:
  赞👍
- Youn7276:
  好

发表看法

118

{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"isChannel":false,"data":{"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2190674948?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/627bc890436e46f74a0fe8143398a725","is_english":false,"pubTime":"2021-12-12 13:43","share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6b8fa6424aebe95f6781d04ef17a1852","id":"2190674948","market":"us","top_or_hot":-1,"title":"国盛宏观：美国通胀即将迎来拐点","media":"格隆汇","content":"<div>\n<p>事件：北京时间12月10日21:30，美国公布11月CPI数据。\n核心结论：\n1、美国11月未季调CPI同比6.8%，符合预期，高于前值6.2%；核心CPI同比4.9%，符合预期，高于前值4.6%。分项来看，能源和二手车依然是涨幅最大的两个分项，食品价格同比涨幅也有所扩大，服务分项价格上涨不明显。\n2、美国CPI数据公布后，美元指数和美债收益率均快速下行，美联储加息预期小幅降温。背后的逻辑在于，...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.gelonghui.com/p/500534\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"gelonghui_highlight","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>国盛宏观：美国通胀即将迎来拐点</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n国盛宏观：美国通胀即将迎来拐点\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-12-12 13:43 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://www.gelonghui.com/p/500534><strong>格隆汇</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>事件：北京时间12月10日21:30，美国公布11月CPI数据。\n核心结论：\n1、美国11月未季调CPI同比6.8%，符合预期，高于前值6.2%；核心CPI同比4.9%，符合预期，高于前值4.6%。分项来看，能源和二手车依然是涨幅最大的两个分项，食品价格同比涨幅也有所扩大，服务分项价格上涨不明显。\n2、美国CPI数据公布后，美元指数和美债收益率均快速下行，美联储加息预期小幅降温。背后的逻辑在于，...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.gelonghui.com/p/500534\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"FT_SY_UB","symbol_name":"超30年美债","start_time":0,"source_url":"http://www.gelonghui.com/p/500534","article_id":"2190674948","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":["https://static.tigerbbs.com/627bc890436e46f74a0fe8143398a725"],"rights":null,"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2190674948","pubTimestamp":1639287807,"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"gelonghui_highlight","name":"格隆汇"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"事件：北京时间12月10日21:30，美国公布11月CPI数据。\n核心结论：\n1、美国11月未季调CPI同比6.8%，符合预期，高于前值6.2%；核心CPI同比4.9%，符合预期，高于前值4.6%。分","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"gelonghui.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"zh","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF","IVV":"标普500指数ETF","DDM":"道指两倍做多ETF","DOG":"道指反向ETF","SPY":"标普500ETF","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","DXD":"道指两倍做空ETF","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF","PSQ":"纳指反向ETF","UDOW":"道指三倍做多ETF-ProShares","QID":"纳指两倍做空ETF","SDOW":"道指三倍做空ETF-ProShares","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","SDS":"两倍做空标普500ETF","BK4504":"桥水持仓","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","SH":"标普500反向ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯","QLD":"纳指两倍做多ETF","SSO":"两倍做多标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","QQQ":"纳指100ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","OEX":"标普100"},"translate_title":"Guosheng Macro: US inflation is about to usher in an inflection point","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1be609c8ad90452ec062eee8a8ff8549","symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.9,"513500":0.9,"SDOW":0.9,"ZNmain":0.9,"ZTmain":0.9,"IVV":0.9,"OEF":0.9,"OEX":0.9,"PSQ":0.9,"QID":0.9,"QLD":0.9,"QQQ":0.9,"ZFmain":0.9,"SDS":0.9,"SH":0.9,"SPXU":0.9,"SPY":0.9,"SQQQ":0.9,"SSO":0.9,"TQQQ":0.9,"UDOW":0.9,"UPRO":0.9,"DJX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"DDM":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"DOG":0.9,"DXD":0.9,"ESmain":0.9,"MNQmain":0.9,"NQmain":0.9,"TNmain":0.9,"UBmain":0.9,"ZBmain":0.9},"content_text":"事件：北京时间12月10日21:30，美国公布11月CPI数据。\n核心结论：\n1、美国11月未季调CPI同比6.8%，符合预期，高于前值6.2%；核心CPI同比4.9%，符合预期，高于前值4.6%。分项来看，能源和二手车依然是涨幅最大的两个分项，食品价格同比涨幅也有所扩大，服务分项价格上涨不明显。\n2、美国CPI数据公布后，美元指数和美债收益率均快速下行，美联储加息预期小幅降温。背后的逻辑在于，当前市场的通胀恐慌情绪已发酵得非常充分，在此背景下，“符合预期”即“不及预期”。\n3、要判断通胀的影响，需厘清实际通胀、通胀预期、加息预期之间的关系。概况而言，通胀预期和加息预期均跟随实际通胀变化，但二者均是只反映了即期通胀，没有包含对长期通胀走势的判断。这也意味着，一旦通胀数据开始回落，通胀预期和加息预期均会降温。\n4、美国通胀展望：美国CPI同比大概率在12月或1月出现拐点，随后持续回落，到2022年底有望降至2-3%。美联储货币政策方面：12/16的FOMC会议上可能宣布加速Taper，从而将于2022年3月结束购债。我们的中性预期仍是2022年加息1次，若通胀回落较为缓慢同时就业状况超预期改善，不排除可能加息2次，目前市场对加息超过2次的定价有些过高。\n5、大类资产展望：维持我们海外年度报告的观点：2022年美元指数大概率上涨，高点可能破100；美债名义利率更有可能温和下行，但实际利率可能上行；美国通胀出现拐点后，黄金大概率重回下跌通道；美股以震荡调整为主，难持续大幅上涨。\n\n正文如下：\n1、美国11月CPI同比继续上行，能源价格仍是最大的驱动因素\n>整体表现：美国11月未季调CPI同比6.8%，符合预期，高于前值6.2%，创1983年来最高；核心CPI同比4.9%，符合预期，高于前值4.6%，创1992年来最高。\n>分项来看：能源和二手车依然是涨幅最大的两个分项，分别同比上涨33.5%、31.4%，较前值分别提高3.5、5.0个百分点；食品分项同比上涨6.1%，较前值提高0.8个百分点；服务分项同比上涨3.4%，较前值提高0.1个百分点。\n\n2、为何通胀创新高，美元指数与美债收益率却在下行？\n自2021年初以来，几乎每个月的美国CPI同比都高于市场预期，且不断创下过去数十年新高，导致通胀恐慌情绪不断加剧。在此背景下，“符合预期”即“不及预期”，也就是说，即使通胀仍在上行，但只要没有超预期，市场就会认为通胀压力即将缓解。典型代表是今年7-9月，实际CPI数据与市场一致预期差别不大，通胀担忧暂时缓解，10Y美债收益率由1.5%降至1.2%。但自10月初以来，由于OPEC+不扩大增产和欧洲天然气危机，能源价格持续大幅上涨，导致通胀担忧再度加剧。\n本次美国CPI数据公布后，美元指数由96.4快速下跌至96.0左右；10Y美债收益率由1.52%一度下行至最低1.45%，最终收盘在1.49%；联邦基金利率期货隐含的2022年加息次数由2.9次回落至2.66次。资产价格和加息预期的这一表现，正是反映了“符合预期”即“不及预期”这一逻辑。\n\n\n\n\n3、要判断通胀的影响，需厘清实际通胀、通胀预期、加息预期之间的关系\n概况而言，通胀预期和加息预期均跟随实际通胀变化，但二者均是只反映了即期通胀，没有包含对长期通胀走势的判断。不论美债隐含的市场通胀预期（美债与TIPS利差），还是纽约联储调查的消费者通胀预期，均与美国CPI同比走势高度一致。同时，利率期货隐含的加息预期与美债隐含的通胀预期走势高度一致。\n实际上，彭博最新的一致预期显示，市场预计2022Q4美国CPI同比将降至2.6%，PCE通胀将降至2.3%，核心PCE通胀将降至2.5%，这与我们年度海外报告中的测算较为接近。若认为通胀会持续回落至仅略高于美联储的政策目标，则不应预期2022年会加息接近3次。这反映出，利率期货隐含的加息预期更多反映了即期通胀表现，一旦通胀开始回落，加息预期也将开始降温。\n\n\n\n\n4、美国通胀可能在12月或1月出现拐点，随后美联储加息预期将有所降温\n>美国通胀走势：在前期报告中我们曾多次指出，美国通胀是“能源分项决定方向，其他分项决定幅度”，此外，原油价格同比领先CPI能源分项同比1-2月。根据我们在海外年度报告《反转之年——2022年海外宏观展望》中的分析，2022年原油价格大概率下跌，实际上自11月初以来油价已经下跌了超过13%，以12月至今的价格计算，油价同比已由10月的101.7%回落至44.3%。因此，美国通胀可能在12月或明年1月出现拐点，随后持续回落，到2022年底预计将降至2-3%。\n\n\n>美联储货币政策：从近期鲍威尔和其他美联储官员表态来看，美联储很有可能会在12/16的FOMC会议上宣布加快Taper，从明年1月开始将缩债规模从150亿提高到300亿，从而将于2022年3月结束购债。但我们认为这并不意味着加息节奏会进一步加快，随着美国通胀见顶回落、经济持续放缓，叠加Omicron病毒的冲击，我们的中性预期仍是2022年加息1次，若通胀回落较为缓慢同时就业状况超预期改善，不排除可能加息2次，相比之下，目前市场对加息超过2次的定价有些过高。等到美国通胀出现拐点后，市场加息预期大概率会有所降温。\n>资产价格展望：维持我们海外年度报告的观点：2022年美元指数大概率上涨，高点可能破100；美债名义利率更有可能温和下行，但实际利率可能上行；美国通胀出现拐点后，黄金大概率重回下跌通道；美股以震荡调整为主，难持续大幅上涨。\n\n\n风险提示：\n美国通胀持续超预期，美联储政策立场超预期变化。","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":null,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":604343665,"gmtCreate":1639354628087,"gmtModify":1639354628198,"author":{"id":"4090730840029950","authorId":"4090730840029950","name":"thomaschai","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/60d0ea90d448581d311ba0fca8614ef4","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"Yyy","listText":"Yyy","text":"Yyy","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/604343665","repostId":2190674948,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":604320572,"gmtCreate":1639352364200,"gmtModify":1639352364320,"author":{"id":"3586607851629362","authorId":"3586607851629362","name":"AdelineLing","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"留意","listText":"留意","text":"留意","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/604320572","repostId":2190674948,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":604389107,"gmtCreate":1639350034458,"gmtModify":1639350034533,"author":{"id":"4096237348804660","authorId":"4096237348804660","name":"E1","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f887693ed3474f48db5ad78f0799734","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"Yes","listText":"Yes","text":"Yes","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/604389107","repostId":2190674948,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":6956417,"gmtCreate":1639354638341,"gmtModify":1639354638372,"authorId":4090730840029950,"author":{"id":4090730840029950,"authorId":4090730840029950,"name":"thomaschai","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/60d0ea90d448581d311ba0fca8614ef4","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":604389107,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"<u>yy</u>","text":"<u>yy</u>","html":"<u>yy</u>"}],"langContent":"CN"},{"id":604330846,"gmtCreate":1639344085783,"gmtModify":1639344108827,"author":{"id":"3577393549070429","authorId":"3577393549070429","name":"Youn7276","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/487c5c26a5e210d6b88adaeaba12329b","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"阅","listText":"阅","text":"阅","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/604330846","repostId":2190674948,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":604943158,"gmtCreate":1639320235174,"gmtModify":1639320235380,"author":{"id":"3564108727353086","authorId":"3564108727353086","name":"Tummy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2633c0a0e18cf8c352931eb48340a8fe","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"赞👍","listText":"赞👍","text":"赞👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/604943158","repostId":2190674948,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":6982709,"gmtCreate":1639521740670,"gmtModify":1639521740696,"authorId":3564108727353086,"author":{"id":3564108727353086,"authorId":3564108727353086,"name":"Tummy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2633c0a0e18cf8c352931eb48340a8fe","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":604943158,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"赞👍","text":"赞👍","html":"赞👍"},{"id":6975454,"gmtCreate":1639458359915,"gmtModify":1639458360003,"authorId":3564108727353086,"author":{"id":3564108727353086,"authorId":3564108727353086,"name":"Tummy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2633c0a0e18cf8c352931eb48340a8fe","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":604943158,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"赞👍","text":"赞👍","html":"赞👍"},{"id":6954142,"gmtCreate":1639344092860,"gmtModify":1639344092892,"authorId":3577393549070429,"author":{"id":3577393549070429,"authorId":3577393549070429,"name":"Youn7276","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/487c5c26a5e210d6b88adaeaba12329b","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":604943158,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"好","text":"好","html":"好"}],"langContent":"CN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":118,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.24.2","shortVersion":"4.24.2","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2190674948"}