年内跌幅近40%，木头姐的“股神”人设是怎么崩塌的

格隆汇2021-12-10

一副标志性的黑框眼镜、一头及肩的灰褐色长发，对于许多投资人而言，始终追踪快速增长的“颠覆性”公司的木头姐，其投资理念就与其日常打扮一样个性鲜明。这位过去数年资管业横空出世的颠覆者，早已在美国散户中积累了大量的粉丝。然而随着多只方舟基金今年的业绩持续表现惨淡，一改去年业绩辉煌的局面，围绕木头姐颠覆性创新投资理念的争议也日益多了起来。其中，方舟创新ETF（ARKK）今年迄今累计跌幅为23.11%...

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BabyShark222
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UltraPro S&P500，在今年取得了翻倍的好成绩。\n尽管这只基金采取的是追踪标准普尔500指数，其中不乏金融公司，但其前十大重仓股，大部分都是美国市值最高的几家科技巨头——苹果、微软、特斯拉、亚马逊。\n\n还有Direxion Daily Technology Bull 3X Shares，今年也获得了将近翻倍的收益，其前十大重仓股同样是同样是美国纳斯达克市值最高的几家科技公司，苹果、微软、英伟达、思科。\n\n可以看出，这几家科技巨头在美股中拥有超然地位，它们的上涨带动了纳指、道指等指数上涨。\n今年但凡投资这些公司的，都获益不少。\n以纳斯达克100成分股今年的业绩来看，年内涨幅最大的分别是莫德纳、英伟达、迈威尔科技，充分展现了今年全球市场表现最好的三个主题，疫苗、元宇宙概念和芯片。\n\n表现最差的则是派乐腾、拼多多和Zoom视频。\n\n也就是说，并不是美国投资者不看好科技股，而是木头姐的策略在2021年确实失去了效果。\n2\n方舟or“两面神”\n目前，大多数流入ARKK的资金，都是在2020年其大涨后才入场的。这也就意味着，很多盲目跟风的散户，眼下已经被深度套牢。\n在推特上，不少人甚至把ARKK的大幅回调与世纪初的互联网泡沫放在一起比较。\n上个月，首只专门做空方舟创新ETF的基金SARK正式上市，由于恰逢ARKK的业绩惨淡期，SARK在短短不到一个月时间里便强势上涨了约30%。\n不过，对于市场的质疑，木头姐却强调，现在实际上反而是她策略的最佳买入时机之一。\n“我很担心投资者们因为近来的下跌势头而慌忙撤出，从而错过颠覆性创新股票未来几年强劲的增长潜力。”\n而从上周以来的一系列持仓变动看，她确实正用实际行动来证明，自己并未因“颠覆性”公司的持续下跌而气馁，反而在越跌越买。\n过去几天，木头姐数笔操作惊动了市场：11月30日，大举抄底推特；12月2日，斥资5400万美元买入北美第二大移动支付公司Square；先后在12月2日和6日买入小鹏汽车。\n不过，即便最近的抄底行动能够取得成功，但方舟基金是否真的能就此度过本轮危机，依然存在着一些无法回避的艰巨挑战。\n首先是规模。\n在新冠疫情爆发之前，ARKK的资金规模从未超过20亿美元，能够低调而自由地买卖几乎任何类型的小型股，而不会对价格产生太大影响，也不会遭遇流动性问题。但现在，木头姐的基金规模已经过于庞大，并开始对其所持股票的价格和交易行为产生影响。\n\n在今年一季度的鼎盛时期，ARKK的规模一度高达250亿美元，并在29家上市公司持有10%乃至更多股份。\n在行情大好的时候，这当然没什么问题。但暴跌走势一旦发生，就会演变成一场灾难。\n比如世纪初的共同基金公司Janus，短短十年间将资管规模从30亿美元扩张到3000亿，就连美国前任总统克林顿都曾把个人账户交托给该机构打理。但随着互联网泡沫破裂，其部分基金产品净值骤然暴跌三分之二，“两面神”的神话也就此湮灭在了历史长河中。\n此外，2020-2021年的利率是超低的，但未来几年这种情况可能将不复存在。\n美联储已经暗示明年至少将两次加息，未来几年还将多次加息。昂贵的成长型股票们的融资环境，可能会变得更加艰难。\n这对整个市场来说都是一大风险因素。\n眼下的木头姐，是真的搭上了通往新纪元的“诺亚方舟”，还是重蹈昔日的“两面神”，只有时间才能给出答案。","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":null,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":605155195,"gmtCreate":1639134053722,"gmtModify":1639134053831,"author":{"id":"3571552996196002","authorId":"3571552996196002","name":"BabyShark222","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"羡慕","listText":"羡慕","text":"羡慕","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/605155195","repostId":2190625956,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":605155929,"gmtCreate":1639134046730,"gmtModify":1639134046825,"author":{"id":"3571552996196002","authorId":"3571552996196002","name":"BabyShark222","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"羡慕","listText":"羡慕","text":"羡慕","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/605155929","repostId":2190625956,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":605120514,"gmtCreate":1639131601880,"gmtModify":1639131601979,"author":{"id":"4093490089881430","authorId":"4093490089881430","name":"JD107","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/22a629f35cd0dfcde86bdc9469d484ed","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"666","listText":"666","text":"666","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/605120514","repostId":2190625956,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":6926617,"gmtCreate":1639132261010,"gmtModify":1639132261040,"authorId":3568626352541392,"author":{"id":3568626352541392,"authorId":3568626352541392,"name":"LawrenceCW","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/962262e528e64dff78a74edaba2a5aac","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":605120514,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"666","text":"666","html":"666"}],"langContent":"CN"},{"id":605166799,"gmtCreate":1639130924074,"gmtModify":1639130924318,"author":{"id":"3558139965187172","authorId":"3558139965187172","name":"博雅1594","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc68284671614f4cbf654cf0268d859e","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"牛","listText":"牛","text":"牛","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/605166799","repostId":2190625956,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":6926619,"gmtCreate":1639132263848,"gmtModify":1639132263881,"authorId":3582212677594923,"author":{"id":3582212677594923,"authorId":3582212677594923,"name":"Diaschy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/023e36d76d8f4434c4ca55ea9d316933","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":605166799,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"666","text":"666","html":"666"},{"id":6926466,"gmtCreate":1639130931745,"gmtModify":1639130931772,"authorId":3558139965187172,"author":{"id":3558139965187172,"authorId":3558139965187172,"name":"博雅1594","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc68284671614f4cbf654cf0268d859e","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLev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