外媒头条：美国CPI恐再“爆表”！是时候对冲通胀了

新浪财经2021-12-10

全球财经媒体昨夜今晨共同关注的头条新闻主要有： 1、IMF首席经济学家：全球面临通胀压力和奥密克戎带来的风险 2、美国商务部长称若不能解决芯片危机会造成毁灭性影响 3、美国家庭净资产创疫后复苏以来最低增幅 4、美国CPI数据恐进一步攀升贝莱德：现在是时候对冲通胀了 5、美国上周首次申请失业救济人数降至52年最低受季节性因素影响 6、尽管面临疫情挑战标普仍预计明年石油需求...

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2021-12-10
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2021-12-10
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Gopinath表示，除了目前预计的12.5万亿美元损失之外，像奥密克戎（Omicron）这样更易传播的新冠变体可能会使全球经济再损失5.3万亿美元。\n“我们现在处于这样一个阶段，全球各国根本没有空间保持非常宽松的货币政策，将利率维持在极低的水平。我们看到全球各地的通胀压力都在积聚，”她说。\nGopinath补充说：“因此，想想这样一种情况，疫情可能会持续更长时间，供应中断时间会更长，从而带来通胀压力，然后我们面临着真正风险，即滞胀担忧。”\n\n美国商务部长称若不能解决芯片危机会造成毁灭性影响\n美国商务部长雷蒙多表示，如果国会不马上通过拜登政府旨在缓解芯片短缺问题的法案，对美国经济将产生“毁灭性”影响。\n“延后通过的后果再怎么说都不夸张，”雷蒙多周四接受采访时称。“如果不能在圣诞节前完成，就必须在1月完成，因为长期回避这个问题的后果对我们的经济和国家安全来说确实是毁灭性的，”她说道。\n雷蒙多一直在敦促国会通过《芯片法案》以提供520亿美元帮助计算机芯片制造商，缓解供应短缺局面。\n德克萨斯州共和党参议员John Cornyn周三表示，《芯片法案》可能要到2月才能通过。\n\n美国家庭净资产创疫后复苏以来最低增幅\n美国家庭净资产增速在第三季度降温，股市的暂时回撤抵消了房价上涨的财富效应。\n美联储周四发布的数据显示，在第二季度增加6.14万亿美元之后，家庭净资产在第三季度增加近2.4万亿美元，增幅为1.7%。虽然季度增量是疫情复苏中最小的一次。\n第三季度增长包括家庭房地产增值1.4万亿美元，但股票价值减少近3200亿美元。\n不过，并非所有人都从大流行期间的股价飙升和房地产热潮中受益。调查数据表明，仅有略多于一半的美国人持有股票。而对于租房居住的大约三分之一家庭来说，租金正在迅速上升。\n较高的储蓄水平仍然是家庭支出的一个重要来源，不过随着联邦政府刺激措施的减弱，储蓄有所下降。第三季度私人储蓄净额折年率增长2.84万亿美元，为2020年初以来最慢增速。\n\n美国CPI数据恐进一步攀升 贝莱德：现在是时候对冲通胀了\n贝莱德的Gargi Chaudhuri预计周五的通胀数据将超过华尔街的预期，并建议投资者对冲更高的通胀。\n“我们可能会得到比市场定价略强一些的东西，”这位贝莱德iShares安硕美洲投资策略主管周四接受采访时表示。“我预计市场中的部分商品门类以及服务领域会更强劲，例如住房通胀。”\n通胀处于数十年来的最高水平。根据经济学家预测，周五的数据显示11月份通胀率达到6.8%，将是里根时代以来的最高水平，也是许多美国人有生以来遇到的最高通胀。\nChaudhuri表示，她预计2022年晚些时候通胀将放缓，而商品和服务价格将保持在疫情前水平之上。为了保护自己，投资者应该关注那些能够抵御通胀侵蚀回报的资产，例如“能够转嫁价格上涨的公司的股票”。\n\n美国上周首次申请失业救济人数降至52年最低 受季节性因素影响\n美国上周首次申请失业救济人数降至1969年以来最低水平，凸显出对数据进行季节性调整的难度。\n美国劳工部周四发布的数据显示，截至12月4日的一周，首次申领失业救济人数比前一周减少4.3万，至18.4万人。经济学家中值预期为22万人。\n此前两周该数据已经出现大幅下降，许多经济学家将其归因于假期前后季节性波动因素导致数据调整难度较大。未经调整的首次申领失业救济人数增加约64000人。\n随着美国人重返工作岗位，加之雇主努力留住员工，今年以来，失业救济申请人数呈下降趋势。\n物价上涨和新冠疫情继续加大企业经营及招聘活动难度。上月非农就业人数创下今年以来最小增幅，普遍出现劳动力短缺情况。\n\n尽管面临疫情挑战 标普仍预计明年石油需求将增长\n标普全球普氏称，尽管全球仍在继续应对冠状病毒新变种，但明年石油需求仍将增长。\n标普全球普氏的供应和生产主管Shin Kim在该公司2022年能源展望报告中表示，2022年消费增长的很大一部分将来自航油，以及市场对汽车燃料等其他石油产品的需求上升。\n“石油需求增长的基础稳固，”她说，预计明年的日需求量增幅在300万至640万桶之间。\n不过，能源市场的基调将取决于供应增长的步伐，经过两年的库存萎缩后，生产需要反弹才能满足需求。伊朗恢复供应将产生最大的影响。\n“如果我们不考虑伊朗，而且在其他地方发生重大供应中断，那就意味着真正的问题将是我们是否将试探100美元/桶的油价，” 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