为什么这回美国通胀爆表，市场却很淡定？

华尔街见闻2021-12-11

周五美国11月CPI同比创下近40年最高涨幅，但并没有影响华尔街股市继续走高，本周美股迎来了自2月以来表现最强劲的一周，标普500指数以创纪录高点收盘。标普500指数周五上涨1%，周涨幅为3.8%，超过三周前创下的收盘纪录。以科技股为主的纳斯达克综合指数上涨0.7%，周涨幅达到3.6%。通胀虽高但没预期严重美债收益率掉头下挫加息押注不升反降市场因此得到提振尽管通胀爆表，但同比上涨...

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Liaw_0430
2021-12-13
Liaw_0430
阅
mjng
2021-12-13
mjng
学习
yong168
2021-12-12
yong168
[无语]
天下事
2021-12-12
天下事
目前影响美国股市的三大主要因素是缩表规模、加息程度、泡沫大小。
嘞撸虎7
2021-12-12
嘞撸虎7
阅
Sam Ang
2021-12-12
Sam Ang
阅

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市场因此得到提振\n尽管通胀爆表，但同比上涨6.8%的这一数字还是让投资者松了一口气，他们本已准备好迎接可能出现7%或更大增幅的数据。\n许多投资者还预计，随着供应链瓶颈的缓解，价格上涨将很快见顶。\n英国金融时报援引投资集团Sanders Morris Harris董事长George Ball表示：“市场预期通胀数据将达到这一水平，而高通胀已在市场中消化了好几个月。”\n而此前加拿大皇家银行资本市场（RBC Capital Market）的美国利率策略主管 Blake Gwinn 也表示，11月CPI确实是一个非常高的通胀数据，但高通胀早被预料到，数据发布前应该已经被市场定价。\n此前华尔街分析师就普遍认为，下周美联储“官宣”将缩减购债速度从每个月150亿美元翻倍至300亿美元，这属于板上钉钉，而且包括鲍威尔在内的众多央行官员都提前充分放风了。\n这导致在数据发布后，各期限美债收益率最终回落：\n\n 10年期基准美债收益率在升至1.52%后掉头转跌，一度下行3.6个基点，日低至1.451%，收盘小幅下降1个基点，至1.49%。对货币政策更敏感的两年期美债收益率一度下行5个基点，收盘下跌3个基点，至0.66%。\n\n而衡量较长期价格上涨预期的五年期通胀掉期利率，小幅下降至2.15%。分析称，这表明投资者并未立即认为CPI数据会对美联储利率政策产生重大影响。\n此前英国《金融时报》对48位著名的经济学家进行了一项调查，超过10%的经济学家预计美联储会加快Taper步伐，并在明年第一季度加息；半数以上经济学家预计首次加息可能会在第二季度，而在上次调查时，只有不到20%的经济学家认为，明年上半年可能加息。\n但通胀数据公布后，利率期货显示美联储设定的基准利率明年将上涨67个基点，比之前减少了约5个基点。\n彭博社分析称，这表明交易员减少了对美联储加息的押注。市场因此得到提振，此前市场一直担心通胀数据上升将迫使美联储更早、更快地加息，从而损及股市。\n后续市场怎么看？美国通胀即将见顶？\n摩根大通资产管理公司的首席全球策略师David Kelly指出，美联储可能明年加息三次、2023年加息四次：\n“这意味着到2023 年底，联邦基金利率将在1.75%至2%，仍低于通胀率。所以我们要说的是，美联储在这方面变得不那么鸽派了，但整体环境中根本没有‘鹰’的身影。”\n但科技基金经理Dan Niles称，随着美联储（开始）加息，标普500指数恐将在2022年下跌20%。\n这显然是美联储不愿看到的。穆迪分析（Moody’s Analytics）的货币政策研究主管Ryan Sweet认为，尽管通胀持续高企令美联储可能明年加息，这不代表美联储会变得过于激进，“鲍威尔想要长期的经济扩张，为此美联储需要有点耐心。”\n瑞银此前认为，比起加息，明年美联储进一步缩表更有可能： “如果加息不够条件，那么和加息一样，缩表也是一种标准化的货币政策工具。”并预计美联储会在明年3月结束taper、6月缩表、9月加息，此后保持耐心的加息步伐，每隔一个季度加息一次。\n基金管理公司景顺(Invesco)资产配置研究主管Paul Jackson表示:\n\n 如果美联储现在不撤出部分支持措施，并开始使货币政策正常化，那么当我们真的陷入下一场衰退时，他们就没有多少弹药了。 \n 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