美联储为何突然“转鹰”？这三张图告诉你答案

智通财经2021-12-02

美联储主席鲍威尔终于含蓄地承认，全球经济存在太多的刺激需求，美联储将不得不加快缩减购债步伐。财经博客Zerohedge指出，美国经济过热是导致通货膨胀的主要因素。如下图所示，美国名义零售额和核心资本货物订单量仍比疫情前趋势水平高出15%，实际零售额较疫情前趋势水平高出8.6%。图一显示：美国零售额比疫情前趋势水平高出15.5%，提前63个月达到疫情前趋势水平；图二显示：美国实际零售额比...

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Youn7276
2021-12-03
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RomySKT
2021-12-02
RomySKT
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These three pictures tell you the answer","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0f468528e180342798f4d15b81b60d08","symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.9,"513500":0.9,"SH":0.9,"OEF":0.9,"OEX":0.9,"PSQ":0.9,"QID":0.9,"QLD":0.9,"QQQ":0.9,"SDOW":0.9,"SDS":0.9,"IVV":0.9,"SPXU":0.9,"SPY":0.9,"SQQQ":0.9,"SSO":0.9,"TQQQ":0.9,"UDOW":0.9,"UPRO":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"NQmain":0.9,"MNQmain":0.9,"ESmain":0.9,"DXD":0.9,"DOG":0.9,"DJX":0.9,"DDM":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9},"content_text":"美联储主席鲍威尔终于含蓄地承认，全球经济存在太多的刺激需求，美联储将不得不加快缩减购债步伐。\n财经博客Zerohedge指出，美国经济过热是导致通货膨胀的主要因素。 如下图所示，美国名义零售额和核心资本货物订单量仍比疫情前趋势水平高出15%，实际零售额较疫情前趋势水平高出8.6%。\n图一显示：美国零售额比疫情前趋势水平高出15.5%，提前63个月达到疫情前趋势水平；\n\n图二显示：美国实际零售额比疫情前趋势水平高出8.6%，提前54个月达到疫情前趋势水平；\n\n图三显示：核心资本货物订单量比疫情前趋势水平高出14.6%；\nZerohedge表示，事后看来，全球政策制定者推出太多刺激措施了，但这肯定比经济萧条要好。\nZerohedge认为，现在是联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)终于开始关注由“货币供应链”引起的问题的时候了，而不是将经济失衡归咎于“供应链问题”，而且他们似乎已经做到了。 \n如果需求不是那么强劲，供应链问题早就解决了，洛杉矶港和长滩港也不会长时间拥堵。\n如上图所示，在大流行期间，供应链很早就断裂了，因为上游供应商受到终端需求剧烈波动的打击。\nZerohedge预计，美联储将继续缩减，直到出现问题，从而导致逆转和出现新的货币制度。不过，这个拐点还很遥远。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":601910801,"gmtCreate":1638480038925,"gmtModify":1638480048621,"author":{"id":"3577393549070429","authorId":"3577393549070429","name":"Youn7276","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/487c5c26a5e210d6b88adaeaba12329b","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3577393549070429","authorIdStr":"3577393549070429"},"htmlText":"阅","listText":"阅","text":"阅","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/601910801","repostId":2188591312,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":603719329,"gmtCreate":1638451693071,"gmtModify":1638451693071,"author":{"id":"3579783453007050","authorId":"3579783453007050","name":"RomySKT","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3579783453007050","authorIdStr":"3579783453007050"},"htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/603719329","repostId":2188591312,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":6815546,"gmtCreate":1638451706275,"gmtModify":1638451706350,"authorId":3579783453007050,"author":{"id":3579783453007050,"idStr":"3579783453007050","authorId":3579783453007050,"name":"RomySKT","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":603719329,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"[微笑]","text":"[微笑]","html":"[微笑]"}],"langContent":"CN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":26,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.29.3","shortVersion":"4.29.3","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2188591312"}