特斯拉一周两涨，配置升级还是提前应对电池涨价？

华尔街见闻2021-11-25

今年以来由于上游原材料的持续大涨，给中下游端尤其是动力电池厂商带来不小的成本压力，结果近期市场没有等来预期中动力电池价格的上涨，反而终端新能源汽车龙头特斯拉先进行了几波涨价。11月24日特斯拉中国官网显示，特斯拉Model 3和Model Y后轮驱动普通版从此前25.09万元和27.6万元的定价上涨至25.5652万元和27.6万元，都上调了5千元人民币左右。而仅在5天前，特斯拉的Model 3...

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Motors rises twice a week, upgrade the configuration or deal with the battery price increase in advance?","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c8d3538bcc5f40f245cfa1408617e358","symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9},"content_text":"今年以来由于上游原材料的持续大涨，给中下游端尤其是动力电池厂商带来不小的成本压力，结果近期市场没有等来预期中动力电池价格的上涨，反而终端新能源汽车龙头特斯拉先进行了几波涨价。11月24日特斯拉中国官网显示，特斯拉Model 3和Model Y后轮驱动普通版从此前25.09万元和27.6万元的定价上涨至25.5652万元和27.6万元，都上调了5千元人民币左右。而仅在5天前，特斯拉的Model 3后轮驱动版才刚刚进行了1.5万元的提价。\n涨价并非因为配置升级\n特斯拉中国官网上显示，Model 3后轮驱动版的续航从原先的468公里（NEDC工况）提高至556公里（CLTC工况），但是这大部分原因仅仅是因为标准的转换，并非配置更新升级。目前国际上比较主流的工况标准分别是NEDC和WLTC，而CLTC是由我国中汽研牵头，组织行业专家展开了为期三年的中国工况调研开发工作得到的结果。\n其中标准更为严格，会使电动车续航里程更低的WLTC暂且不谈， NEDC工况是欧洲续航测试标准循环工况，主要在欧洲、澳大利亚使用，我国此前主要使用的也正是这个标准，但由于NEDC一直没有进行更新，已经不太适合目前的情况；目前特斯拉改用的CLTC标准由于偏向于中低速（最高测试车速为114km/h，平均车速为28.96/h），所以导致了CLTC工况续航标准下的新能源汽车续航里程比NEDC工况续航标准下的数值更高。\n10月12日，工业和信息化部发布《关于2021年度双积分核算有关事项的通知》，表示纯电动乘用车可选择按NEDC工况或CLTC工况确定车型电能消耗量和续驶里程。此后不少车企都将原先普遍使用的NEDC工况续航标准替换成了CLTC工况续航标准，因为从直观的数值上来看，的确增加了不少续航里程，但是考虑到此前NEDC续航里程尚且由于冬季温度等方面影响会有不少缩水，CLTC续航标准究竟如何还需要时间和实证来进行验证。\n涨价并非应对电池未来提价\n同样，特斯拉这波在我国乃至美国市场，这近一个月内连续涨价也并非是因为核心部件动力电池的涨价。作为新能源汽车成本中占比30%左右的重要组成部分动力电池，其价格其实长期处于下跌状态，以动力电池龙头企业宁德时代为例，其动力电池价格从2014年的2.89元/Wh一路下滑至2020年破1元大关到0.89元/WH。而2021年以来由于各大原材料持续涨价，虽然整个上半年动力电池价格却没有任何涨价的趋势，但是展望未来，电池价格似乎迎来转机，市场也都持续关注并认为涨价即将到来，但是这个转机其实并不容易。\n华尔街见闻·见智研究认为原因如下：\n1）首先，由于动力电池的竞争和规模化起来后整体成本一直在下降，所以电池降价才是长期趋势。而且动力电池并不是标准品，每家主机厂的要求都不一样，比如不同车型对产品定位、性能需求、应用场景都不一样，所以每家主机厂都想把自己的电池自主化。宁德时代由于市占率大，合作的主机厂又多，所以产业链地位较高，但是相对一些二线电池厂商，主机厂话语权还是相对来说很大。更不用说，主机厂和电池厂商签订合约一般都是以几年一次性签订，短时间加价不易。\n2）然后，从终端车企来看，今年同样也有不小的成本压力，除了动力电池以外，汽车本身需要的各类金属远材料如钢铁等也在涨价，同时持续的缺芯状态也使得芯片价格大增。同时，正如中国汽车动力电池产业创新联盟副秘书长王子冬所说，对于整车来说，一个汽车零部件如果占到整车采购成本的10%以上，整车就会关注和控制，而目前动力电池占据了主机厂30%左右的采购成本。\n而且，虽然动力电池厂商今年有一定的承压但是毛利率来说还是在20%以上，相比起来主机厂来说还是不错的，所以主机厂肯定不愿意进一步承担压力的。如果动力电池在进行涨价，车企可能也会对汽车售价进行向下挑战，传导给消费者，将有可能使得电动车相较燃油车的优势不在，拖慢电动化的进程。\n3）其次，现在已经接近2021年年末，到了明年新的一年新能源汽车补贴将进一步退坡，2022年补贴标准原则上会在2021年的基础上退坡30%，换而言之，纯电里程在400km以上的EV（Model 3和Model Y均是）退坡后补贴额将减少5400元，特斯拉或也是提前涨价进行准备，因为根据特斯拉的交车周期，现在下订单的车主也需到2022年一季度左右才能提车。\n4）最后，今年以来，锂电原材料的确大涨不少，但是真正的需求可能不见得有那么高，一方面不少企业由于看到原材料的涨幅会出现购买、囤积锂电材料的情况；另一方面，下游主机厂也会夸大需求和囤货，其实下游企业目前没有做这么大的量，但是在和电池厂商、材料供应商沟通时却表示要的量大，甚至和多个材料商都作出类似表述，使得中上游都认为订单会很大，需求很旺盛，开始加价购买原材料，造成了一种恐慌，这种情况必然不可持续。\n而且由于动力电池厂商多会和上游厂商签订长协价格等因素，目前电池涨价幅度其实也是远不如原材料涨价幅度，涨幅慢于原料价格的涨幅，即使要涨价，电池厂商也不可能完全把成本压力转嫁给下游车企。","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":null,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":874593996,"gmtCreate":1637799029664,"gmtModify":1637799029664,"author":{"id":"3585632669728370","authorId":"3585632669728370","name":"eeth","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/735082c961a6f88b2636be009adbfc68","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"👍👍","listText":"👍👍","text":"👍👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/874593996","repostId":2186669213,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":874505997,"gmtCreate":1637798671519,"gmtModify":1637798671519,"author":{"id":"4088125554959510","authorId":"4088125554959510","name":"Vicholes","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"[开心]&nbsp;[开心]&nbsp;","listText":"[开心]&nbsp;[开心]&nbsp;","text":"[开心] 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