市场在下注：美联储已经犯错

华尔街见闻2021-11-16

最近市场传达了一个信号：美联储将会比它自己认为的更早、更快地加息，但同时，美联储会犯一个错误，即过快地加息。从过去几周到近几日，无论是美债收益率曲线迅速平坦化（加息预期升温推动短期利率上行）：还是在10月CPI数据显示美国通胀飙升后，“空头”激情再次高涨，市场对于美联储明年7月前加息的预期飙升：以及市场对于明年底前加息次数的预期大涨（2022年将不止加息一次，7月之后的加息轨迹将加速，...

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果冻ss
2021-11-17
果冻ss
分析师全部，都是扯，全部都是
蓝白红黑的间条衫
2021-11-16
蓝白红黑的间条衫
华尔街见闻也已经一再证明其美股闹餐黑子的本色……😂😂😂

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href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3645032><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>最近市场传达了一个信号：美联储将会比它自己认为的更早、更快地加息，但同时，美联储会犯一个错误，即过快地加息。\n从过去几周到近几日，无论是美债收益率曲线迅速平坦化（加息预期升温推动短期利率上行）：\n\n还是在10月CPI数据显示美国通胀飙升后，“空头”激情再次高涨，市场对于美联储明年7月前加息的预期飙升：\n\n以及市场对于明年底前加息次数的预期大涨（2022年将不止加息一次，7月之后的加息轨迹将加速，...</p>\n\n<a 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mistakes","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/010bd28f718ad8da3a8b124717d9979f","symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.9,"513500":0.9,"OEX":0.9,"UPRO":0.9,"UDOW":0.9,"TQQQ":0.9,"SSO":0.9,"SQQQ":0.9,"SPY":0.9,"SPXU":0.9,"SH":0.9,"SDS":0.9,"SDOW":0.9,"QQQ":0.9,"QLD":0.9,"QID":0.9,"PSQ":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"OEF":0.9,"IVV":0.9,"NQmain":0.9,"MNQmain":0.9,"ESmain":0.9,"DXD":0.9,"DOG":0.9,"DJX":0.9,"DDM":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9},"content_text":"最近市场传达了一个信号：美联储将会比它自己认为的更早、更快地加息，但同时，美联储会犯一个错误，即过快地加息。\n从过去几周到近几日，无论是美债收益率曲线迅速平坦化（加息预期升温推动短期利率上行）：\n\n还是在10月CPI数据显示美国通胀飙升后，“空头”激情再次高涨，市场对于美联储明年7月前加息的预期飙升：\n\n以及市场对于明年底前加息次数的预期大涨（2022年将不止加息一次，7月之后的加息轨迹将加速，预计到2022年底将加息2.5次）：\n\n都在表明，市场认为美联储未来加息的时间和速度会远快于美联储自己的说法。\n今年9月，美联储政策制定者对利率走势做出预测时，他们对明年的走势产生了分歧：一半成员认为他们会将隔夜利率的目标区间维持在接近零的水平，其余大多数成员认为他们会将目标提高0.25个百分点。\n而从美联储主席鲍威尔在11月会议后的讲话来看，现在可能有更多决策者倾向于加息25个基点。\n此外，芝商所“美联储观察”工具显示，美联储在明年年底前将目标区间至少上调50个基点的可能性为83%。而在美联储9月份的会议之后，这个概率只有22%。\n亚特兰大联储银行的一个模型也显示，到2023年最后一个季度，市场预计美联储隔夜利率的平均水平将在1.4%左右，而9月公布的显示委员会成员预期的点阵图显示，美联储2023年底的预测中值为1%。\n利率期货显示美联储2023年之后会加息过快\n但在2023年之后，利率期货的情况则有所不同。长期利率维持在低位，10年期美债最近的收益率为1.58%。长期利率本应反映投资者对未来几年平均隔夜利率的预期。\n旧金山联储银行基于美债收益率和“期限溢价”估计的模型，将隔夜利率在2024年底设定在1.4%左右，并一直维持到2031年。\n相比之下，到2024年底，美联储点阵图显示的隔夜利率目标将升至1.75%。从更长期（longer term）来看，这一比例将升至2.5%。\n\n对此的一种解释是，市场认为美联储将加息以应对通胀持续上升，但结果拖累经济，美联储将达不到就业和长期通胀目标。\n换句话说，市场认为，美联储政策制定者应该坚持自己的预测，缓慢加息。但美联储会犯一个错误，即过快地加息。\n同时，市场似乎暗示美联储将在2024年至2026年之间的某个时间重新实施量化宽松政策——毕竟2024年是选举年。\n如果这看起来有些牵强，那么值得注意的是，美联储政策预期对利率市场的影响并不是绝对的。\n正如华尔街日报所指出的：\n\n在利率走向方面，市场可能比任何一位预测者或美联储都更聪明。不幸的是，要弄清楚市场想说什么并不容易。\n\n话说回来，在民主党即将迎来一个非常不乐观的中期选举之前，美联储是否真的会像市场预期的那样在明年7月及之后持续加息？\n分析人士怀疑，市场本身低估了美联储对于市场恶化的恐慌程度，即如果市场恶化过快，将出现一个更为鸽派的美联储。","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":871525252,"gmtCreate":1637095724079,"gmtModify":1637095724079,"author":{"id":"3470974584712861","authorId":"3470974584712861","name":"果冻ss","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3470974584712861","authorIdStr":"3470974584712861"},"htmlText":"分析师全部，都是扯，全部都是","listText":"分析师全部，都是扯，全部都是","text":"分析师全部，都是扯，全部都是","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/871525252","repostId":2183066180,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":871875539,"gmtCreate":1637057508627,"gmtModify":1637057508627,"author":{"id":"3546057439648684","authorId":"3546057439648684","name":"蓝白红黑的间条衫","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/64ded5db61c69b7abc937bc62d16afdd","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3546057439648684","authorIdStr":"3546057439648684"},"htmlText":"华尔街见闻也已经一再证明其美股闹餐黑子的本色……😂😂😂","listText":"华尔街见闻也已经一再证明其美股闹餐黑子的本色……😂😂😂","text":"华尔街见闻也已经一再证明其美股闹餐黑子的本色……😂😂😂","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/871875539","repostId":2183066180,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":5,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":3,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 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