市场在下注：美联储已经犯错

华尔街见闻2021-11-16

最近市场传达了一个信号：美联储将会比它自己认为的更早、更快地加息，但同时，美联储会犯一个错误，即过快地加息。从过去几周到近几日，无论是美债收益率曲线迅速平坦化（加息预期升温推动短期利率上行）：还是在10月CPI数据显示美国通胀飙升后，“空头”激情再次高涨，市场对于美联储明年7月前加息的预期飙升：以及市场对于明年底前加息次数的预期大涨（2022年将不止加息一次，7月之后的加息轨迹将加速，...

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果冻ss
2021-11-17
果冻ss
分析师全部，都是扯，全部都是
蓝白红黑的间条衫
2021-11-16
蓝白红黑的间条衫
华尔街见闻也已经一再证明其美股闹餐黑子的本色……😂😂😂

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href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3645032><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>最近市场传达了一个信号：美联储将会比它自己认为的更早、更快地加息，但同时，美联储会犯一个错误，即过快地加息。\n从过去几周到近几日，无论是美债收益率曲线迅速平坦化（加息预期升温推动短期利率上行）：\n\n还是在10月CPI数据显示美国通胀飙升后，“空头”激情再次高涨，市场对于美联储明年7月前加息的预期飙升：\n\n以及市场对于明年底前加息次数的预期大涨（2022年将不止加息一次，7月之后的加息轨迹将加速，...</p>\n\n<a 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term）来看，这一比例将升至2.5%。\n\n对此的一种解释是，市场认为美联储将加息以应对通胀持续上升，但结果拖累经济，美联储将达不到就业和长期通胀目标。\n换句话说，市场认为，美联储政策制定者应该坚持自己的预测，缓慢加息。但美联储会犯一个错误，即过快地加息。\n同时，市场似乎暗示美联储将在2024年至2026年之间的某个时间重新实施量化宽松政策——毕竟2024年是选举年。\n如果这看起来有些牵强，那么值得注意的是，美联储政策预期对利率市场的影响并不是绝对的。\n正如华尔街日报所指出的：\n\n在利率走向方面，市场可能比任何一位预测者或美联储都更聪明。不幸的是，要弄清楚市场想说什么并不容易。\n\n话说回来，在民主党即将迎来一个非常不乐观的中期选举之前，美联储是否真的会像市场预期的那样在明年7月及之后持续加息？\n分析人士怀疑，市场本身低估了美联储对于市场恶化的恐慌程度，即如果市场恶化过快，将出现一个更为鸽派的美联储。","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":null,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":871525252,"gmtCreate":1637095724079,"gmtModify":1637095724079,"author":{"id":"3470974584712861","authorId":"3470974584712861","name":"果冻ss","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"分析师全部，都是扯，全部都是","listText":"分析师全部，都是扯，全部都是","text":"分析师全部，都是扯，全部都是","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/871525252","repostId":2183066180,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":871875539,"gmtCreate":1637057508627,"gmtModify":1637057508627,"author":{"id":"3546057439648684","authorId":"3546057439648684","name":"蓝白红黑的间条衫","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/64ded5db61c69b7abc937bc62d16afdd","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"htmlText":"华尔街见闻也已经一再证明其美股闹餐黑子的本色……😂😂😂","listText":"华尔街见闻也已经一再证明其美股闹餐黑子的本色……😂😂😂","text":"华尔街见闻也已经一再证明其美股闹餐黑子的本色……😂😂😂","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/871875539","repostId":2183066180,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":5,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":3,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 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