薪资在增长，但并未推升美国通胀

智通财经2021-11-10

在经历了数十年的低工资增长后，美国工人终于获得了加薪。智通财经APP获悉，美国10月份时薪较上年同期增长了5.8%，为上世纪80年代初以来第三高的同比涨幅;衡量工资和福利的就业成本指数在第三季度上涨了1.3%，这是该指数自2001年创立以来最大的单季涨幅。这对工人们而言无疑是好消息。但通胀观察人士担心，工资上涨也会推高物价。他们表示，通胀率是2000年代中期以来的最高水平，是美联储设定的2%通胀...

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精彩评论

Youn7276
2021-11-11
Youn7276
阅
- jiann85:
  [微笑]
mudou
2021-11-11
mudou
加速印钱
瀚妈
2021-11-10
瀚妈
好
- Paulyang:
  好
健安_1832
2021-11-10
健安_1832
好
- 瀚妈:
  ok
Linda2240
2021-11-10
Linda2240
[微笑]
- Linda2240:
  [微笑]
hangyuliang
2021-11-10
hangyuliang
[微笑]
- theng:
  好
- hangyuliang:
  [微笑]

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\nAnalysis)汇编的数据，自上世纪60年代以来，工资、个人消费和通货膨胀几乎是同步的。这三者都在20世纪60年代和70年代大幅增长，此后一直在下滑。\n\n在过去的四十年里，工资、消费和通货膨胀的增长同步下降\n但最近的工资上涨并没有明显扭转这一趋势。从1959年到1990年，工资每年增长7.8%(平均每季度增长2%左右)，与同期消费年增长8.2%密切相关。然而自1991年以来，工资每年上涨4.4%，同样与每年4.7%的消费增长密切相关。即使是在今年第三季度之后，就业成本指数也仅比去年上涨了3.7%，仍远低于近几十年来缓慢的工资增长。\n工资是增长了，但不足以推高物价\n低工资增长削弱了工人的消费能力，要想赶上还需要更大幅度的加薪。例如，休闲和酒店业工人的时薪在10月份比上一年增长了12.4%，然而，他们的平均每周收入仅为417美元，按照一年工作50周计算，每年约为2.1万美元。\n\n工资正在以上世纪80年代初以来最快的速度增长\n在美国劳工部(Labor \nDepartment)追踪的大多数行业中，平均年薪大约为5万美元或更少，这几乎无法养活一个住在生活成本最低地方的人，更不用说住在大城市的家庭或工人了。没有持续和强劲的工资增长，消费就不太可能以能够推动物价持续上涨的水平增长。简单地说，“工人不能花他们赚不到的钱”。\n而这或许可以解释为什么债券市场和美联储似乎并不担心通胀。债券市场显示，未来10年物价将每年上涨2.6%，与过去100年的通胀水平大致相当。尽管美联储主席鲍威尔上周在新闻发布会上承认通胀比美联储预期的要高，但他同时补充称，美联储认为“几乎没有证据表明工资增长可能会威胁到过度通胀。”\n事实上，通货紧缩或者通胀率低于美联储的目标，可能才是更大的担忧。消费支出约占美国经济的三分之二，因此工资、消费、通胀和更广泛的经济在过去20年的大部分时间里都在努力增长，这可能并非巧合。最终，随着疫情期间积累的储蓄被花掉、疫情期间的财政和货币刺激措施也将走到终点，这样一来，经济增长的重任就落在消费者的肩上，而他们对此却无能为力。\n没有人真正知道通胀将走向何方，许多因素都可能推高物价，比如能源短缺、全球供应链的持续紧缩、甚至是投资加密货币的富有阶层的兴起。但是，工资增长目前还不足以成为推高物价的因素之一，除非加薪幅度比目前工人们获得的加薪幅度要大得多。","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":870984458,"gmtCreate":1636579615375,"gmtModify":1636579624842,"author":{"id":"3577393549070429","authorId":"3577393549070429","authorIdStr":"3577393549070429","name":"Youn7276","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/487c5c26a5e210d6b88adaeaba12329b","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3577393549070429"},"htmlText":"阅","listText":"阅","text":"阅","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/870984458","repostId":2182349370,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":6529071,"gmtCreate":1636581156896,"gmtModify":1636581156931,"authorId":3517706790212686,"author":{"id":3517706790212686,"authorId":3517706790212686,"name":"jiann85","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":870984458,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"[微笑]","text":"[微笑]","html":"[微笑]"}],"langContent":"CN"},{"id":870059604,"gmtCreate":1636560274418,"gmtModify":1636560274418,"author":{"id":"3443997331423448","authorId":"3443997331423448","authorIdStr":"3443997331423448","name":"mudou","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b769fef2af6a63bf235619883905dadd","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0a2963eb37c60c5d6d4a8dbcd266952","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3443997331423448"},"htmlText":"加速印钱","listText":"加速印钱","text":"加速印钱","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/870059604","repostId":2182349370,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":870065796,"gmtCreate":1636559341418,"gmtModify":1636559341538,"author":{"id":"3575347610709013","authorId":"3575347610709013","authorIdStr":"3575347610709013","name":"瀚妈","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc130c80435a1df7ae157dd6764e34e0","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3575347610709013"},"htmlText":"好","listText":"好","text":"好","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/870065796","repostId":2182349370,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":6528320,"gmtCreate":1636564098072,"gmtModify":1636564098175,"authorId":3573356109011085,"author":{"id":3573356109011085,"authorId":3573356109011085,"name":"Paulyang","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":870065796,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"好","text":"好","html":"好"}],"langContent":"CN"},{"id":870066604,"gmtCreate":1636559176810,"gmtModify":1636559176932,"author":{"id":"3553346853986978","authorId":"3553346853986978","authorIdStr":"3553346853986978","name":"健安_1832","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1a310972d59b708bb82abef5c003c84e","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3553346853986978"},"htmlText":"好","listText":"好","text":"好","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/870066604","repostId":2182349370,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":6527795,"gmtCreate":1636559338757,"gmtModify":1636559338822,"authorId":3575347610709013,"author":{"id":3575347610709013,"authorId":3575347610709013,"name":"瀚妈","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc130c80435a1df7ae157dd6764e34e0","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":870066604,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"ok","text":"ok","html":"ok"}],"langContent":"CN"},{"id":870016984,"gmtCreate":1636557941507,"gmtModify":1636559008400,"author":{"id":"3581665781703479","authorId":"3581665781703479","authorIdStr":"3581665781703479","name":"Linda2240","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f18a9b60dbd0321aa6fc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