美股五大科技巨头的光环正在褪去

市场资讯2021-11-11

虽然美股五大科技巨头--微软、苹果、Alphabet、Meta、亚马逊（合称MAGMA）的市值仍居高不下，但已出现一定分化，这表明随着疫后复苏的巩固，这些公司的光环正逐渐褪去。MAGMA的估值倍数已跌离峰值水平，但仍需下跌35%，才能回到2020年前的平均水平。市值份额与相关系数的表现也是一样：依旧高企，但已开始回落。 1．科技巨头的溢价逐渐消退剔除MAGMA后的标普500预期市盈率美国...

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科技巨头的溢价逐渐消退\n剔除MAGMA后的标普500预期市盈率\n美国科技巨头（MAGMA）与标普500指数中其余公司的估值之差较峰值水平略有所收窄，考虑到未来一年左右五大科技巨头的每股盈利（EPS）增速可能放缓，这种差距有望进一步缩小。MAGMA的加权平均市值是预期EPS的28.6倍，较峰值下降19.4%，而同期标普500的市盈率下降了9.2%。两者的差距已从12.3收窄至7.5。尽管如此，MAGMA按中值计算的股价仍比标普500其他成分股贵37%。\n五大科技巨头大部分现已掉出标普500成分股中最昂贵的前20%。除亚马逊外，另外四只股票的绝对估值倍数都位于第二到第三个五分位区间。五巨头按预期市盈率排名，微软和苹果相较于平均水平的溢价最高，而亚马逊相对于其五年平均值的折价最大。\n2． 从盈利来看，科技巨头的估值差距应会缩窄\n\n标普500科技巨头的巨大估值溢价可能源于MAGMA前几年的相对增长。但从现在到2022年上半年结束前，这些公司的EPS增速应会持续低于该指数的平均水平，从而令MAGMA的吸引力有所削弱。由于MAGMA的总收入增长速度比标普500指数快4.2倍，五巨头的预期市盈率较指数的其余部分高35.3%，高于五年前的19%。而同期的净收入增速则超过指数的两倍。市场一致预期MAGMA明年的总收入增速为15.3%，净收入增速为9.5%，前者较指数高531个基点，而后者则较指数低588个基点。\n标普500科技板块（其中微软和苹果占到其总市值的44.5%）2021年下半年的增速有望超过MAGMA。市场预期科技板块的平均净收入增速为22.4%，而MAGMA为19.3%。\n3． 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