重温巴菲特箴言：通胀无牛市

巴伦周刊2021-11-07

股市投资者已经从可怕的“ i”字头单词——通货膨胀（inflation）——中得到了大约30年的喘息之机。这种情况可能正在改变，投资者需要谨慎行事。目前的通货膨胀率是美联储所希望看到的两倍。问题在于，这一轮通胀只是暂时现象，还是长期趋势的早期阶段。联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）在最近的声明中指出，“部分板块价格大幅上涨”，并宣布计划从11月开始逐步减少购买资产。通货膨胀对于股市投资者的伤害方式...

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免责声明：本文观点仅代表作者个人观点，不构成本平台的投资建议，本平台不对文章信息准确性、完整性和及时性做出任何保证，亦不对因使用或信赖文章信息引发的任何损失承担责任。

精彩评论

Youn7276
2021-11-08
Youn7276
阅
钱包君你要振作起来
2021-11-07
钱包君你要振作起来
一切都是浮云
- 快乐玩美股:
  [财迷]
Fattkhong
2021-11-07
Fattkhong
继续上
- Fattkhong:
  [财迷]
河里的咸鱼
2021-11-07
河里的咸鱼
也不会崩盘
中国ChinaATM
2021-11-07
中国ChinaATM
会计报表都是造假的，看不看无所谓
- Youn7276:
  好
WinSum
2021-11-07
WinSum
Good read
- CMChai100:
  good

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i”字头单词——通货膨胀（inflation）——中得到了大约30年的喘息之机。这种情况可能正在改变，投资者需要谨慎行事。\n目前的通货膨胀率是美联储所希望看到的两倍。问题在于，这一轮通胀只是暂时现象，还是长期趋势的早期阶段。联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）在最近的声明中指出，“部分板块价格大幅上涨”，并宣布计划从11月开始逐步减少购买资产。\n通货膨胀对于股市投资者的伤害方式...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.huxiu.com/article/470341.html\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"BRK.A","symbol_name":"伯克希尔","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://www.huxiu.com/article/470341.html","article_id":"2181747735","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":["https://static.tigerbbs.com/214cd0deb7eafbf7180019e7ec0c752b"],"rights":null,"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2181747735","pubTimestamp":1636248246,"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"lsy1587985706210","name":"巴伦周刊"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"股市投资者已经从可怕的“ 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Buffett）知道如何发现这些扭曲现象，通过跟随他带领的投资，我们将更清楚地认识到，当通胀处于高位时企业的实际价值。\n作为伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司的董事长，巴菲特可能是有史以来最有影响力的投资者，他能够教会投资者如何冲破迷雾。在1986年写给伯克希尔股东的年度股东信中，他提出了一种识破通胀带来的虚假利润的方法，他称之为“所有者收益”（owner earnings），他将其定义为一家公司的现金流减去任何用来维持业务所花费的资金。这个数字代表了公司真正的经济收益。\n假设你拥有一家面包店。你从顾客那里得到现金，你付钱给供应商、雇员和房东等等，你每隔几年就要重新粉刷墙壁等来保持生意。假设你没有扩张业务，也没有榨干它，那么剩下的就是所有者收益。\n如果没有通货膨胀，就不会有问题：公司报告的收益是所有者收益的公正反映。\n然而，在高通胀环境下，大多数公司根据要求而高估了它们的收益。这背后主要有两个原因。虽然很复杂，但归根结底是看该公司如何计算折旧和存货。\n折旧是一种扣除，它允许公司将一项长期资产的成本分摊到其使用寿命（比如说20年）中，而不是在购买时全部计费。如果存在通货膨胀，那么公司在其寿命结束时更换资产的成本，将超过公司在收益报告中所计算的成本。其结果就是虚幻的利润。\n同样的观点也适用于库存：拥有大量库存的公司倾向于低估所销售商品的成本，因此高估所有者收益。这是因为企业可以选择使用哪种会计方法，而且很多企业决定采用它们购买原始存货所支出的费用，而不是当前的重置成本。\n20世纪70年代末和80年代初，通货膨胀的扭曲效应受到了密切关注。例如，1981年的一项研究发现，在对这些因素进行调整后，111家公司的收入比这些公司财务报表报告的数字低了53% 。当时，大型上市公司被要求提供一定的重置成本估算，作为收益报表的补充。但随着通胀率的下降，投资者变得不那么担心了，企业也不再需要提供这些估算数据。\n更令人困惑的是，无论是对债券持有人、银行、供应商，甚至是税务人员来说，通货膨胀都会对欠下巨额债务的公司财务状况产生积极影响。当需要偿还债务时，这些公司会使用经过通胀后的钱，从而降低债务的真实经济成本。当通货膨胀肆虐时，类似于贷款这样的负债，应付账款和税收的负担会变得更加好管理，所有者收益可能会高于公布的收益。\n对于投资者来说，现在的问题是双重的。\n首先，最近通货膨胀的上升使得确定单个公司的真实价值变得更加困难。\n其次，通胀使标普500指数等广泛的市场指标陷入混乱。奥纬咨询最近根据一直回溯到1871年通货膨胀的数据对通胀影响进行了调整。每次大通货膨胀时期之后，所有者收入和报告收入之间的差距都特别大，但直到今天仍然存在。例如，在10年滚动期的基础上，1992年的所有者收益比报告收益要低33% ，直到今天仍然低9% 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