美联储taper后，美债、美股、美元将怎么走？

智通财经2021-11-04

策略师们表示，投资者预期美联储能够像宣布缩减购债规模一样平稳地把握加息路径，他们对未来几个月收益率、美元和股市将温和上涨持谨慎乐观态度。周四凌晨，鲍威尔宣布开始减少债券购买，但表示美联储可以耐心地等待提高利率。美股收于高位，美国国债回落，收益率曲线温和趋陡，扭转近期趋平趋势。鉴于利率交易员仍相对积极地认为美联储主席鲍威尔有必要避免对上调借贷成本以抑制通胀过于耐心，周五的非农就业报告被市场视为...

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精彩评论

hhyw
2021-11-05
hhyw
市场上便宜的热钱少了，股市不跌都难，就跌个70％吧，那才健康😁😁
- 滚股怪:
  King
Sen001
2021-11-05
Sen001
[财迷]
- 十八顺:
  越走越高 [微笑]
- Sen001:
  赚钱难
Youn7276
2021-11-05
Youn7276
阅
Tummy
2021-11-05
Tummy
赞赞
- hhyw:
  好
Tome
2021-11-05
Tome
赞👍
- Tome:
  赞👍
BabyShark222
2021-11-04
BabyShark222
Ok
- BabyShark222:
  ok

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dollars?","themeId":"75366c5aca5e41deb05c0a8f7974db47","isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/71439c914f375f802c6f099a83bfdb41","symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.9,"513500":0.9,"SH":0.9,"IEI":0.9,"IVV":0.9,"OEF":0.9,"OEX":0.9,"PSQ":0.9,"QID":0.9,"QLD":0.9,"QQQ":0.9,"SDOW":0.9,"SDS":0.9,"IEF":0.9,"SHY":0.9,"SPXU":0.9,"SPY":0.9,"SQQQ":0.9,"SSO":0.9,"TLT":0.9,"TQQQ":0.9,"UDOW":0.9,"UPRO":0.9,"ESmain":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"BND":0.9,"DDM":0.9,"DJX":0.9,"DOG":0.9,"DXD":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"MNQmain":0.9,"NQmain":0.9,"TNmain":0.9,"UBmain":0.9,"ZBmain":0.9,"ZFmain":0.9,"ZNmain":0.9,"ZTmain":0.9,"GOVT":0.9},"content_text":"策略师们表示，投资者预期美联储能够像宣布缩减购债规模一样平稳地把握加息路径，他们对未来几个月收益率、美元和股市将温和上涨持谨慎乐观态度。\n周四凌晨，鲍威尔宣布开始减少债券购买，但表示美联储可以耐心地等待提高利率。美股收于高位，美国国债回落，收益率曲线温和趋陡，扭转近期趋平趋势。\n鉴于利率交易员仍相对积极地认为美联储主席鲍威尔有必要避免对上调借贷成本以抑制通胀过于耐心，周五的非农就业报告被市场视为下个重要风向。押注加息面临的主要风险在于，市场的大幅波动可能引发债券市场的新一轮动荡。\n策略师预计，美联储taper后，美国国债收益率、股市和美元将小幅上涨。在加息方面，市场预期与决策者的言论仍存在分歧。\n美国国债收益率将上升，美元将小幅走高\n包括Mike Schumacher在内的富国银行策略师们表示:“对我们来说，关键的收获是，美联储已经提出了加速或可能放缓量化宽松的可能性。基于市场预期美国将更快加息，缩减量化宽松政策的灵活性使得经济数据，尤其是通胀和就业数据，更有可能刺激美元走强。减少资产购买应该会逐步推高收益率。我们维持10年期美国国债收益率在1.75-1.80%的年底目标。就未来加息而言，市场定价仍然过于激进。”\n道明证券策略师Jim O 'Sullivan表示:“国债收益率和收益率曲线应仍处于国债标售规模缩减、量化宽松缩减、未来几周可能出台的财政方案以及市场对前段国债的重新定价之间。这应该会使波动性保持在高位，但随着投资者消化taper和加息周期开始带来的流动效应，利率将面临一些上行压力。在净久期供应充足的情况下，taper应该会使曲线变陡，但加息周期的任何进一步推动都应该会使曲线变平。鉴于市场对2022年7月首次加息和2022年两次以上加息的积极定价，我们仍看涨前端利率。”\nIndependent Advisor Alliance首席投资官Chris Zaccarelli认为：“考虑到未来12个月通胀和利率路径的不确定性，我们认为，谨慎的做法是保持投资期限中性，甚至略低于预期。保持股票敞口也是谨慎的做法，但要继续将我们的投资组合重新配置到资产负债表更强健、定价能力更强的公司，而远离那些本质上更具投机性的公司。”\n\n加息与通货膨胀\n西太平洋银行的高级经济学家Elliot Clarke称：“今天的会后沟通不仅使我们保持对2022年12月首次加息的预测，而且也使我们有理由相信，与历史相比，随后的加息周期将是温和的。在此期间，这种温和的政策观点面临的主要风险将是工资上涨。如果事实证明供给不足以满足需求，那么工资增长可能会被推高到一个不仅能抵消当前通胀压力，还能增加可自由支配消费的水平。”\n渣打银行十国集团外汇研究全球主管Steven Englander指出：“我们认为，未来市场的反应将在很大程度上取决于推动政策利率上调的未公布经济数据。这些数据可能包括强劲的就业数据，这意味着美国将迅速实现充分就业;抑或可能出现持续的高通胀数据，这将表明鲍威尔的乐观情绪过头了。第四季度很有可能会出现这两种情况，所以今天的温和立场解读可能是暂时的。”\nCapital Economics的Paul Ashworth认为:“随着工资增长呈现出自1980年代初以来新高,通胀预期上升,周期性爆发的价格通胀迹象,尤其是房租飙升,联邦公开市场委员会坚持认为这仍只是一个由疫情引起的暂时冲击，但重新开放的经济似乎落后于收益率曲线。美联储可能还需要相当长的一段时间才愿意承认通胀可能会更加持续。”\n\n股市温和上涨\nUnited First Partners亚洲研究部主管Justin Tang认为：“我认为这将是一个水涨船高的情况，但与通胀主题密切相关的股票，如科技股，将被买入。”\nDailyFX大中华区主管Ilya Spivak表明:“风险情绪的反应应该是相当温和的，因为我认为美联储的表现符合市场的总体预期。我认为黄金的暴跌和石油的抛售尤其引人注目。黄金很有趣，因为其大部分下跌在美联储公布利率决议之前。”\nCEB International Inv Corp.研究主管Banny 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