中信证券：战略看好2022年国内互联网龙头投资机会

中信证券研究2021-10-26

文丨许英博陈俊云王冠然杨清朴年初至今，中概互联网企业大幅回撤近50%，主要反映政策监管带来的预期波动、短期基本面较美股可比公司相对疲软等。源于政策监管框架不断清晰、2022年基本面大概率改善等，我们看好中概互联网板块2022年的投资机会。 4月10日，阿里巴巴被罚款182.28亿元。10月8日，美团被罚款34.42亿元并退还12.89亿元独家保证金。10月18日，中共中央政治局就推动我国...

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免责声明：本文观点仅代表作者个人观点，不构成本平台的投资建议，本平台不对文章信息准确性、完整性和及时性做出任何保证，亦不对因使用或信赖文章信息引发的任何损失承担责任。

精彩评论

有冇有冇
2021-10-26
有冇有冇
打趴股市抬升房价才能带来最大利益
天罡金斗
2021-10-26
天罡金斗
以财报为准，别吹牛！
- 滚股怪:
  Sch ool
NeoWitch
2021-10-26
NeoWitch
战略看好翻译成大白话就是只吹不买
星宿小小仙
2021-10-26
星宿小小仙
严重没有信心了！如果非要买超级平台型公司股票还是买亚马逊、脸书、微软吧！如果非要买国内科技股就买一些小而美的专精科技股吧。
- Stelle:
  是的资金都出来了当然要买美股国内的拿中概互联弄弄就行了
MG黄
2021-10-26
MG黄
没事按规矩，过个5年10年，信心就能回来了。

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杨清朴\n年初至今，中概互联网企业大幅回撤近50%，主要反映政策监管带来的预期波动、短期基本面较美股可比公司相对疲软等。源于政策监管框架不断清晰、2022年基本面大概率改善等，我们看好中概互联网板块2022年的投资机会。\n4月10日，阿里巴巴被罚款182.28亿元。10月8日，美团被罚款34.42亿元并退还12.89亿元独家保证金。10月18日，中共中央政治局就推动我国数字经济健康发展进行集体学习。政策监管框架正不断清晰、可预期性不断增强，市场对政策的反应亦边际钝化。经历2021年的大幅投入，叠加宏观经济有望在2021H2触底，我们判断国内互联网板块业绩明年将同比改善。经过前期大幅调整，头部互联网公司的估值已回落至历史低位，风险大幅释放，借鉴美股市场经验，业绩增速中枢下移+业绩高确定性改善的组合，料将推动中概互联网龙头估值水平与海外公司差距不断收窄。此外，国内云计算、海外网络游戏等亦将是国内互联网龙头实现中长期成长性、估值提升的重要支撑。长期维度，我们持续推荐行业竞争地位稳固、新业务&新市场具有拓展空间的龙头厂商。\n▍报告缘起：2021年中概互联网板块股价大幅回撤，市场聚焦政策进展、基本面拐点等。\n2021年，中概互联网板块明显回撤。截至目前，主要中概互联网公司的最大回撤普遍在40%以上，其中百度、拼多多、哔哩哔哩、快手的最大回撤幅度超过60%，美团最大回撤59%，腾讯、阿里、京东、网易等回撤幅度均超过40%，而同期业绩相对占优、监管压力相对较小的美股互联网板块大幅上行，并创出历史新高。基于最近和投资者的广泛交流，我们总结认为，针对国内互联网板块，当前需要回答主要问题包括：1)短期：国内互联网企业股价调整是否已经结束，板块布局窗口大概在什么时候，主要的前瞻性指标是什么？2)中长期：基于互联网产业内在逻辑、宏观政策监管等因素的考量，国内互联网产业中长期的竞争格局、成长中枢、估值中枢如何看待？\n▍短期分析：政策监管框架逐步清晰，板块基本面大概率在2021年触底。\n基于政策、基本面、估值、资金等层面因素综合考量，我们看好中概互联网板块2022年度的投资机会：\n1)政策面，阿里巴巴、美团等反垄断调查最终以罚款形式落地，中央定调数字经济健康发展。我们认为政策将更为聚焦落地执行，能见度逐步提高。同时，我们判断市场对后续政策涉及的领域、影响范围料将有所预期，对后续政策出台的反应将逐步钝化。\n2)基本面，受经济周期、战略性投入等因素影响，2021年大概率为国内互联网板块业绩低点，同时受经济周期，线下成本&费用、人员招聘缓慢恢复等驱动，2021H1基本为美股互联网板块业绩增速高点，自Q3开始料将进入逐步下行通道，中美互联网板块业绩增速差有望在2022年明显收敛；\n3)估值，按照当前市场一致预期(暂不考虑后续业绩预期调整)，现行股价水平下，相较于美股互联网巨头，国内互联网巨头的PE(2022E)具有明显吸引力，从而助力推动全球资金的再平衡过程；\n4)资金，中概互联网经历6月以来的快速抛售、做空之后，近期各项资金指标逐步趋稳，同时进入9月后，卖空资金的比例逐步下调，未平仓的股数出现回落。同时今年以来，阿里、腾讯、百度等企业不断加强回购力度和提高期间内回购上限。\n▍长期展望：监管将带来更为规范的市场+龙头效应持续凸显。\n伴随近期一系列监管政策的落地，我们认为当前的政策监管将是长周期、系统性的过程，同时结合当前主要监管部门的公开发言和表态，我们尝试总结国内互联网行业的系统性监管框架，判断主要包括：反垄断、数据隐私保护、互联网金融、劳动者权益、青少年保护、歧视性定价等诸多层面。结合已有处罚落地案例、互联网行业内在特性、欧美市场历史参考等，我们判断政策监管带来的长周期影响主要包括：\n1)主旨在于维护行业的长周期健康、稳定发展。既有处罚并未对业务的核心竞争力、运营模式等带来实质性影响；\n2)监管带来行业整体运行成本系统性抬升，并考虑到国内互联网已进入发展成熟阶段，我们判断，龙头公司长期竞争地位有望持续稳固，而短期内在行业缺乏革新性变化的背景下，中长尾互联网企业料将加速出清。\n▍估值判断：传统业务增长中枢下移，但源于业绩高确定性改善，长期估值中枢伴随预期改善，与海外公司的差距有望持续收窄。\n1)成长性，基于对产业发展阶段、政策监管框架、新兴业务&海外市场等关键维度的分析，我们认为，国内互联网巨头传统消费互联网业务的增长中枢长期料将不断下移，并最终大概率回到略高于同期GDP增速的水平，同时国内云计算、海外网络游戏&短视频等正在成为其中期成长性、估值提升的重要支撑，值得持续跟踪和关注；\n2)估值中枢，伴随国内宏观经济增速的持续下移，国内市场长端利率也有望跟随下移，叠加中概互联网全球化定价的背景，我们判断，业绩增速的下移+业绩高确定性的改善的组合，叠加海外市场2-3倍的PEG，我们判断中概互联网龙头的中长期估值中枢与海外公司的差距有望持续收窄，而新兴业务成长、海外市场拓展带来的业绩端贡献，亦有望构成重要的股指上行催化剂。\n▍风险因素：\n国内及全球互联网行业监管超预期风险；国内宏观经济不及预期风险；全球地缘政治冲突超预期风险；互联网企业关键运营事故风险；互联网企业在新业务、海外市场发展不及预期风险等。\n▍投资策略：\n经历2021年的回调后，国内互联网板块估值性价比亦相对突出，叠加基本面触底、中美互联网业绩增速差收敛、全球资金再平衡等系列因素的综合考虑，我们看好中概互联网板块2022年的系统性布局机会。我们判断国内互联网企业传统业务长期增长中枢有望保持略高于同期GDP的水平，头部公司的龙头效应料将持续凸显，从而推动业绩确定性的持续改善，同时国内云计算、海外网络游戏等将是国内互联网企业实现中长期成长性、估值提升的重要支撑。\n长期维度，我们认为国内互联网板块理想的投资标的应同时具备如下两项特质：1)各领域龙头公司，且财务稳健，能够支撑新业务、新市场的持续拓展；2)新业务、新市场的布局具有可观的空间，并有望成为中期业绩的重要支撑。持续推荐：阿里巴巴、腾讯控股、百度、美团、京东、拼多多等。","kind":null,"is_publish_news":false,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":null,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":852970534,"gmtCreate":1635237377356,"gmtModify":1635237377356,"author":{"id":"3578953928426025","authorId":"3578953928426025","name":"有冇有冇","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd7dd70cb2cff32777bf0fbf0413cf5a","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"打趴股市抬升房价才能带来最大利益","listText":"打趴股市抬升房价才能带来最大利益","text":"打趴股市抬升房价才能带来最大利益","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/852970534","repostId":2178926476,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":852931515,"gmtCreate":1635232823882,"gmtModify":1635232823882,"author":{"id":"3531263342349168","authorId":"3531263342349168","name":"天罡金斗","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/020b341bbbd12c250acf2c37c08b7450","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/717a877921e5ed88700305c37737450d","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"htmlText":"以财报为准，别吹牛！","listText":"以财报为准，别吹牛！","text":"以财报为准，别吹牛！","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/852931515","repostId":2178926476,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":6332345,"gmtCreate":1635251064006,"gmtModify":1635251064112,"authorId":4091089381144950,"author":{"id":4091089381144950,"authorId":4091089381144950,"name":"滚股怪","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b67621b4133ca0db91bff9766152a448","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":852931515,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Sch 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