美银长期通胀指标爆表，再次证明物价飙升非“暂时”

智通财经2021-10-26

今年早些时候，正当华尔街开始痴迷于区分短期通胀和非短期通胀(即永久性通胀)时，美国银行推出了两个追踪指标——短期通胀和非短期通胀指标。起初，虽然短期通胀指标为100，或可能的最高水平，但非短期通胀指标较为温和，5月份仅为37(指标达100即通胀达历史高点，-100即通胀为历史低点)。然而，一个月后，形势发生了改变，“临时”通胀指标可能处于最高水平，而且，“非临时”通胀指标在6月份翻了一番，达到...

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kianweiting
2021-10-26
kianweiting
I agree with Double Line Capital, increasing wages due to manpower shortage tends to be long lasting and difficult to reverse.

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href=http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/582327.html><strong>智通财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>今年早些时候，正当华尔街开始痴迷于区分短期通胀和非短期通胀(即永久性通胀)时，美国银行推出了两个追踪指标——短期通胀和非短期通胀指标。\n起初，虽然短期通胀指标为100，或可能的最高水平，但非短期通胀指标较为温和，5月份仅为37(指标达100即通胀达历史高点，-100即通胀为历史低点)。\n然而，一个月后，形势发生了改变，“临时”通胀指标可能处于最高水平，而且，“非临时”通胀指标在6月份翻了一番，达到...</p>\n\n<a 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\"temporary\"","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ee975f1dc54479074de2afbea419bba2","symbols_score_info":{"BAC":0.9},"content_text":"今年早些时候，正当华尔街开始痴迷于区分短期通胀和非短期通胀(即永久性通胀)时，美国银行推出了两个追踪指标——短期通胀和非短期通胀指标。\n起初，虽然短期通胀指标为100，或可能的最高水平，但非短期通胀指标较为温和，5月份仅为37(指标达100即通胀达历史高点，-100即通胀为历史低点)。\n然而，一个月后，形势发生了改变，“临时”通胀指标可能处于最高水平，而且，“非临时”通胀指标在6月份翻了一番，达到75。\n\n即使一些临时的部分价格因素有所回落，比如二手车价格和机票价格，但随着租金和买房等的物价大幅上涨，“通胀暂时论”开始站不住脚。\n美国9月份核心CPI环比上涨了0.24%，同比上涨4%;业主等价租金(OER)和主要住宅租金分别环比上涨0.43%和0.45%，远远高于之前环比上涨0.2-0.3%的趋势，这表明价格持续上涨的压力要大得多。\n与此同时，通胀的短期驱动因素则更为温和。一方面，与经济重新开放相关的部分商品类别价格下降，服装和二手车等一些商品也是如此。另一方面，新车价格和家居用品价格上涨。然而，追踪二手车价格的指标Manheim Used Car Index飙升至历史新高;这意味着接下来发布的CPI数据将会反映，短期和非短期的通胀因素部分大幅上升。\n与租金走势一致的是，美国银行的美国非短期通胀指标表明通胀不是“暂时的”，该指标从此前的80升至9月份的96，“表明周期性价格压力处于历史高位”。与此同时，尽管9月份短期通胀指标同比有所降温，但仍处于历史高位。因此，美国银行的美国短期通胀指标连续6个月为100。\n\n如下图所示，该数据在历史上(从1995年开始记录起)，从未出现过短期通胀和非短期通胀同时处于历史高位的情况。\n\n\n周一，前美联储主席格林斯潘(Alan Greenspan)表示，他认为通胀显著上升的威胁持续存在；格林斯潘表示，美国将出现远超2%的持续性通胀。\n上周五，美国5年期通胀保值债券(TIPS)损益平衡通胀率有史以来首次突破3%，这一数据表明了当前交易员们预计的消费者价格指数(CPI)上涨速度。这一比率攀升了足足9个多基点，达到3.007%，这是美国金融数据商统计的自2002年以来的最高记录。\n\n双线资本(DoubleLine Capital)创始人兼首席执行官冈拉克表示，美国消费者价格通胀可能会在2021年保持高位，并至少在2022年之前保持在4%以上。冈拉克援引来自住房成本和工资上涨的压力，他认为当前的高通胀并不是暂时性的，相反很可能会持续到未来很长时间。","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":852983481,"gmtCreate":1635234993754,"gmtModify":1635235070092,"author":{"id":"3563493568369289","authorId":"3563493568369289","name":"kianweiting","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"I agree with Double Line Capital, increasing wages due to manpower shortage tends to be long lasting and difficult to reverse.","listText":"I agree with Double Line Capital, increasing wages due to manpower shortage tends to be long lasting and difficult to reverse.","text":"I agree with Double Line Capital, increasing wages due to manpower shortage tends to be long lasting and difficult to reverse.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/852983481","repostId":2178472794,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; 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