马斯克：40年左右，将工厂建到外星球

腾讯新闻2021-10-09

再往后推40年的话，现如今已然50岁的马斯克，或许可以在有生之年，看到特斯拉将工厂建到外星球。记者丨张之栋国庆假期匆匆而过，迫切期望祖国母亲再过一下农历生日的人们，也不得不重新回归到各自的原先位置。而就当人们如梦初醒一般，正式开始假期后第一个工作日时，特斯拉2021股东大会，在加州召开了。虽然比不上前段时间“AI科技日”、“电池日”的科技含量与规模，但在本次正处于Q3季度节点的股东大会上，...

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Youn7276
2021-10-11
Youn7276
阅
虎虎虎20
2021-10-10
虎虎虎20
说说你对这篇新闻的看法...
Youn7276
2021-10-10
Youn7276
阅
WinSum
2021-10-09
WinSum
将 To the moon 实践到底 [你懂的]
Fattkhong
2021-10-09
Fattkhong
又说梦话[龇牙]
- Fattkhong:
  [冷漠]

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2······\n而当忽然听闻马斯克要去外星建工厂时，笔者亦是忍不住感叹：虽迟但到的“特儿味”，已经被马斯克和他的追随者们，游刃有余地掌握了！\n“特儿味”十足的背后\n众所周知，“放卫星”是特斯拉，以及马斯克的传统曲目。而在本次的股东大会的QA环节，出现马斯克与提问者煞有其事的讨论外星建厂，并定下40年期限的状况，似乎也是意料之外，情理之中。\n但“脚踏实地”地分析，这种“特儿味”十足的背后，也是存在着一些东西的支撑，就比如今年特斯拉Q3季度又创新高的交付量。\n作为全球新能源汽车龙头的特斯拉，今年的Q3季度可谓是交出了一份优秀的答卷——生产约23.8万辆车，共交付24.13万辆。\n再加上特斯拉今年Q1季度18.48万辆的交付，以及Q2季度的20.1万辆，累计交付62.71万辆的成绩，如果保持这种增长态势，特斯拉今年年交付量保守估计会超过85万。\n而对于正处于交付量持续增长状态中的特斯拉来说，“年破百万”也就自然而然地成为其下一个里程碑式的目标。\n不难预见的是，“年破百万”的目标并不遥远。甚至马斯克也在本次的股东大会上宣称：我们有信心保持50%交付量的增长率，到2030年可实现年销2000万辆。\n总而言之，马斯克所表现出来的“特儿味”也好，“放卫星”也罢，林林总总一系列强有力的销售数据便是其敢于“畅想”的原因之一。\n而另一方面，特斯拉陆续放出来的其他“新车型”，则可以算得上是其能够继续“畅想”下去的又一支撑点。\n“遥远且近”的新车型\n尽管在芯片荒、动力电池稀缺，以及供应链不完善等各种问题的影响下，Cybertruck、Roadster 以及 Semi的量产进程遭遇了搁置。但好消息是，那款售价2.5万美元（约合16万人民币）的新车虽然不会被叫作Model 2，但确实存在，且会如期上市。\n具体而言，从特斯拉的角度来看，Cybertruck、Roadster 和 Semi可能都分别承担着各自的使命，比如颠覆 F150，入局电动商用卡车赛道，以及瞄准超级跑车赛道等。但相对应的，想要去变革某些事物的同时，就必须做好承担风险准备。\n关于Cybertruck、Roadster、Semi三种不同车型的存在，长时间的“难产”便是人们可以看到的所谓“风险”的冰山一角。而根据本次股东大会上的披露， Cybertruck 预计会在2022年开始生产，2023 年大量生产。Semi 和 Roadster 则是在 2023 年才会开始生产。\n至于特斯拉之所以拖到明年甚至后年才开始生产3款新车型的真正原因，恐怕只有特斯拉的内部管理人员才知道。但有一点可以肯定：很缺电池。\n毕竟在本次的股东大会上，马斯克多次表示动力电池的稀缺，甚至宣称到，只要供应商的产品合格，有多少收多少。\n可能也正是出于这个原因，特斯拉才会义无反顾的研究起自家的4680动力电池起来。据悉，目前特斯拉4680动力电池正处于试产阶段。\n而在股东大会上，马斯克也声称：4680 的技术很高，现在仍然处于试生产测试阶段，特斯拉必须保证电池足够的安全和性能，才会进一步应用的车上。因此，德州的奥斯汀工厂虽然很快会投入使用，但不会参与 4680 的生产。\n至于为什么会出现“有工厂但不参与生产”的情况，则可能是与特斯拉工厂的全球布局有关。\n特斯拉工厂的全球布局\n马斯克在股东大会上确定，特斯拉总部将由加利福尼亚州迁至德克萨斯州的奥斯汀。关于总部迁移的真实原因，究竟是因为税太高，还是因为马斯克所说的“员工买不起房子”，一时很难说得清楚。\n但有一点可以确定：伴随着特斯拉总部的迁移，其全球工厂的布局也变得明朗起来，至少“新厂”奥斯汀工厂会因为总部的到来，变得更具效率。\n据了解，目前特斯拉已有4座工厂，分别是：加州弗里蒙特工厂、中国上海工厂、德州奥斯汀工厂，以及德国柏林工厂。\n与加州弗里蒙特工厂全产品线不同的是，现阶段“新三厂”中的中国上海工厂只负责生产 Model 3和Model Y，柏林工厂只负责生产 Model Y，而奥斯汀工厂则只负责生产 Cybertruck 和 Model Y。\n当被问及特斯拉会不会新建工厂时，马斯克表示：目前除特斯拉四座工厂之外并没有新建计划，但在接下来的时间，会对现有的工厂进行优化和扩建，比如弗里蒙特工厂和内华达电池工厂的产能后续会扩张 50%等。\n借助发展的眼光看问题，哪怕现阶段特斯拉不会建设新的工厂，但在未来，也是会在美国、欧洲、中国等各新能源汽车产业活跃的地区陆续大范围铺开。\n而关于将工厂建到外星球的事儿，虽然有些天方夜谭，但40年后的世界谁有说得准呢？\n假设，借助Space 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