“木头姐”发声：称油价见顶将会面临下跌！

华尔街见闻2021-10-02

在布伦特原油升至2018年10月以来最高点后，受到结构性需求影响，多家机构继续看多油价未来的走高趋势，摩根大通将布伦特原油价格目标从每桶78美元上调至84美元；而高盛则上调对布伦特原油年底预测价格至90美元/桶。木头姐则在推特上发声，称当前的原油市场就如 1900 年代初鲸油到达顶峰后遭遇衰弱一样，并预测它将遭遇同样的命运。 “今年油价上涨更多是供大于求的结果。 20世纪之交，鲸油也面临...

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精彩评论

Youn7276
2021-10-04
Youn7276
阅
Sen001
2021-10-03
Sen001
[财迷]
- Sen001:
  [财迷]
- 十八顺:
  能准吗 [笑哭]
龙腾虎跃168
2021-10-02
龙腾虎跃168
哦
Jason1205
2021-10-02
Jason1205
拿石油和鲸鱼油比？
Fattkhong
2021-10-02
Fattkhong
那么快？
- Fattkhong:
  [流泪]

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年发现石油和后来的电力，它开始走向衰落，鲸油贸易再也没有恢复，到 20 世纪初完全结束。\n研究咨询公司 Thunder Said Energy 的这张图表显示了该交易的兴衰：\n\n虽然许多分析师和经济学家将油价上涨视为需求增加的函数，但“木头姐”则认为这是由于供应中断所致。ARK预计石油价格会像 1900 年代初鲸油的下跌一样，当时鲸油价格就是随着其他燃料来源的替代而大幅贬值。\nARK曾预测，电动汽车销量将从 2020 年的约 220 万辆增长约 20 倍，到 2025 年达到 4000 万辆。“木头姐”看好的电动汽车和电池相关公司都不以原油作为能源，即使在近期猛抛特斯拉超过34万股（价值约2.7亿美元）这顿操作之后，特斯拉仍是“木头姐”的单一最大持仓，在其三只ETF中的占比均超过10%。\n据美国能源信息署的数据，全球石油需求在 2019 年达到每天 1.01 亿桶 (mbd) 的峰值，在 2020 年冠状病毒期间降至 92 mbd，此后在 2021 年反弹至 97 mbd。木头姐表示，“基于在我们对电动汽车销量的预测，@ARKInvest 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