以史为鉴，此前两次美国债务上限危机的发酵与影响

川阅全球宏观2021-09-29

本周随着美国两党在债务上限谈判陷入僵局，金融市场开始担心美国债务违约的风险。正如美国财政部长耶伦在9月28日的参议院听证会上所述“如果在10月18日触及债务上限之前不采取行动提高或暂停债务上限，将带来灾难性的后果，包括金融危机和经济衰退”。显然隔夜美股的大跌已经反映出这种担忧，并且随着10月18日的临近，这种担忧很可能国庆期间在海外市场进一步蔓延。历史来看，美国债务在飙升后都引发了债务上限的...

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精彩评论

中国ChinaATM
2021-09-30
中国ChinaATM
不要危言耸听
hhyw
2021-09-30
hhyw
请点赞和回复
- 滚股怪:
  Ok
CKWAI
2021-09-30
CKWAI
来，回复和点赞，谢谢
- CKWAI:
  谢谢
华尔街小街
2021-09-30
华尔街小街
影响个球，发帖骗稿费
- 神话者:
  [微笑]
SDLiuSG
2021-09-30
SDLiuSG
Good
- SDLiuSG:
  sharing
EricBong
2021-09-30
EricBong
好

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0.25%，并减少10月就业人数12万。\n从金融市场的角度，如表1和表2所示，2011年债务危机引发的波动比2013年要大的多。2011年7月22日-8月10日间，标普500指数跌幅近17%，10年期美债收益率下行82bps（图3），避险情绪下黄金飙升近13%（表1）。大类资产中，债务危机对于美债影响的持续性尤为显著，持续了三个多月。\n\n\n\n本次债务上限的问题被卷入两党关于拜登基建计划的博弈中，有持续发酵的风险，后续发展有两种可能性：\n情景一：债务上限谈判继续与政府停摆问题绑定。由于共和党已经明确反对在政府短期拨款协议（CR）中纳入暂停债务上限的讨论，因此如果两者继续绑定，短期内美国政府关门的风险加大，甚至可能在十一期间关门，部分经济数据也可能被推迟发布（如月初的非农就业数据）。\n情景二：债务上限谈判与政府停摆问题分开。优先处理政府关门问题，后续风险的持续性取决于债务上限谈判的持续时间，最终解决方式包括预算决议或者两党达成一致协议。这种情景下，风险将延后至10月中下旬。\n尽管我们认为两党最终会达成协议，但在该时点前后，可能与2011年类似，对市场产生较大影响，甚至可能影响到当前市场已经price in的taper。如果美国政府在十一期间停摆，金融市场有陷入避险模式的可能，而后续10月中下旬债务危机可能引发金融市场的波动。\n风险提示：病毒变异导致局部疫情控制难度加大，政策变化超出预期","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":null,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":865181683,"gmtCreate":1632961077987,"gmtModify":1632961078319,"author":{"id":"3584867430360256","authorId":"3584867430360256","name":"中国ChinaATM","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd214125064b4d25501bb48cef2fb529","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"不要危言耸听","listText":"不要危言耸听","text":"不要危言耸听","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/865181683","repostId":2171989449,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":865192937,"gmtCreate":1632959798062,"gmtModify":1632959800387,"author":{"id":"3561544476596136","authorId":"3561544476596136","name":"hhyw","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62f8a12108672917c80685184f331b6f","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"请点赞和回复","listText":"请点赞和回复","text":"请点赞和回复","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/865192937","repostId":2171989449,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":6044905,"gmtCreate":1632967515185,"gmtModify":1634726021578,"authorId":4091089381144950,"author":{"id":4091089381144950,"authorId":4091089381144950,"name":"滚股怪","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b67621b4133ca0db91bff9766152a448","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":865192937,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Ok","text":"Ok","html":"Ok"}],"langContent":"CN"},{"id":865109508,"gmtCreate":1632959104208,"gmtModify":1632959110953,"author":{"id":"3576460381606543","authorId":"3576460381606543","name":"CKWAI","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/114d4a21d215b59ce4a06920df73aed5","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"来，回复和点赞，谢谢","listText":"来，回复和点赞，谢谢","text":"来，回复和点赞，谢谢","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/865109508","repostId":2171989449,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":6042525,"gmtCreate":1632959110744,"gmtModify":1634726244128,"authorId":3576460381606543,"author":{"id":3576460381606543,"authorId":3576460381606543,"name":"CKWAI","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/114d4a21d215b59ce4a06920df73aed5","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":865109508,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"谢谢","text":"谢谢","html":"谢谢"}],"langContent":"CN"},{"id":865352190,"gmtCreate":1632957229015,"gmtModify":1632957229015,"author":{"id":"3548833144199437","authorId":"3548833144199437","name":"华尔街小街","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/21c453aa154a0385dea9bd3e2202b604","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"影响个球，发帖骗稿费","listText":"影响个球，发帖骗稿费","text":"影响个球，发帖骗稿费","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/865352190","repostId":2171989449,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":6042078,"gmtCreate":1632957559454,"gmtModify":1634726287625,"authorId":4090235052856760,"author":{"id":4090235052856760,"authorId":4090235052856760,"name":"神话者","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8b20ae15ae6c2600ed63bffb924fc3d1","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":865352190,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"[微笑]","text":"[微笑]","html":"[微笑]"}],"langContent":"CN"},{"id":865325439,"gmtCreate":1632956350043,"gmtModify":1632956350270,"author":{"id":"3575949053778392","authorId":"3575949053778392","name":"SDLiuSG","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00bc0903e8bbdc107f07a92f947eccbe","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/865325439","repostId":2171989449,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":6041829,"gmtCreate":1632956357562,"gmtModify":1634726308865,"authorId":3575949053778392,"author":{"id":3575949053778392,"authorId":3575949053778392,"name":"SDLiuSG","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00bc0903e8bbdc107f07a92f947eccbe","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]}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