美股涨势靠低利率成就？看看这两个市场就懂了

金十数据2021-09-21

过去十八个月，美股涨势惊人，很多投资者将之归因于低利率，因低利率使得股市相对更吸引人。于是，一些人认为，如果利率维持低位，那么市场就会安然无恙。但情况可能并非如此。全球有多个地区利率甚至更低，但股市却没有美股一样的回报。以德国和日本为例，这两个国家的利率都低于美国，多年来不是接近零就是比零还低。有些人可能觉得这两个国家的股市估值表现可能会跟我们看到的美股一样。但是很遗憾，日本和德国股市的估值...

网页链接

免责声明：本文观点仅代表作者个人观点，不构成本平台的投资建议，本平台不对文章信息准确性、完整性和及时性做出任何保证，亦不对因使用或信赖文章信息引发的任何损失承担责任。

精彩评论

haiwei183
2021-09-22
haiwei183
看
60fe72a9
2021-09-22
60fe72a9
Zan
香泉
2021-09-22
香泉
在理，但有非经济的因素，而且可能是起决定性作用的，美国在语言，市场规模，自由度，资金周转，政治法律等方面是全世界任何市场所不具备的，如果有那就是伦敦，而其它国家市场世界其他投资客的参与受到太多不便和限制，都是孤岛型经济，美国只要做好她已有的并不断提高，加强科技和服务，坚定做好世界公仆，并向每个经济体扩张，他们的公司都可以做到全球化，重回全球化的路子，那么美国根本没有挑战者，中国经济也基本是孤岛型经济，仍在很低水平发展，个别行业有所突破，人多规模效应，很难走出国门，外面的世界也很难自由参与中国经济。美国就像钱的海洋，世界各地的财富很容易汇聚于此。
Sinlin
2021-09-21
Sinlin
从历史来看，那两个国家不值得长期信任
- 60fe72a9:
  Zan
高明兴_8399
2021-09-21
高明兴_8399
理解就好
- 高明兴_8399:
  ok
- Savage_Never:
  做任务嘿嘿嘿求赞求评论蟹蟹

发表看法

{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"isChannel":false,"data":{"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2169687116?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f85d50c879b7062b6633dd9d7004fbdb","is_english":false,"pubTime":"2021-09-21 13:43","share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","id":"2169687116","market":"hk","top_or_hot":-1,"title":"美股涨势靠低利率成就？看看这两个市场就懂了","media":"金十数据","content":"<div>\n<p>过去十八个月，美股涨势惊人，很多投资者将之归因于低利率，因低利率使得股市相对更吸引人。\n于是，一些人认为，如果利率维持低位，那么市场就会安然无恙。但情况可能并非如此。全球有多个地区利率甚至更低，但股市却没有美股一样的回报。\n以德国和日本为例，这两个国家的利率都低于美国，多年来不是接近零就是比零还低。有些人可能觉得这两个国家的股市估值表现可能会跟我们看到的美股一样。\n但是很遗憾，日本和德国股市的估值...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=82416&type=news\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"xnew_highlight","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>美股涨势靠低利率成就？看看这两个市场就懂了</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美股涨势靠低利率成就？看看这两个市场就懂了\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-09-21 13:43 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=82416&type=news><strong>金十数据</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>过去十八个月，美股涨势惊人，很多投资者将之归因于低利率，因低利率使得股市相对更吸引人。\n于是，一些人认为，如果利率维持低位，那么市场就会安然无恙。但情况可能并非如此。全球有多个地区利率甚至更低，但股市却没有美股一样的回报。\n以德国和日本为例，这两个国家的利率都低于美国，多年来不是接近零就是比零还低。有些人可能觉得这两个国家的股市估值表现可能会跟我们看到的美股一样。\n但是很遗憾，日本和德国股市的估值...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=82416&type=news\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"OEF","symbol_name":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=82416&type=news","article_id":"2169687116","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":["https://static.tigerbbs.com/f85d50c879b7062b6633dd9d7004fbdb"],"rights":null,"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2169687116","pubTimestamp":1632203000,"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"xnew_highlight","name":"金十要闻"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"同样低利率环境下的德日股市，为什么表现不如美股？","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"jin10.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"zh","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","SPY":"标普500ETF","IVV":"标普500指数ETF","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF","SDS":"两倍做空标普500ETF","SH":"标普500反向ETF","SSO":"两倍做多标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","OEX":"标普100","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF"},"translate_title":"The rise of US stocks is achieved by low interest rates? Just look at these two markets","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/010241c1bc1d3ccf24dedf20e26fd4ce","symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.9,"513500":0.9,"ZNmain":0.9,"UPRO":0.9,"SSO":0.9,"SPY":0.9,"SPXU":0.9,"SH":0.9,"SDS":0.9,"OEX":0.9,"OEF":0.9,"IVV":0.9,"ZTmain":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"ZFmain":0.9,"ZBmain":0.9,"UBmain":0.9,"TNmain":0.9,"JTMmain":0.9,"JTImain":0.9,"ESmain":0.9},"content_text":"过去十八个月，美股涨势惊人，很多投资者将之归因于低利率，因低利率使得股市相对更吸引人。\n于是，一些人认为，如果利率维持低位，那么市场就会安然无恙。但情况可能并非如此。全球有多个地区利率甚至更低，但股市却没有美股一样的回报。\n以德国和日本为例，这两个国家的利率都低于美国，多年来不是接近零就是比零还低。有些人可能觉得这两个国家的股市估值表现可能会跟我们看到的美股一样。\n但是很遗憾，日本和德国股市的估值都大幅低于美国。\n美股溢价很高 标普500指数、德国DAX30指数、东证500指数市盈率比较图\n截至9月16日，标普500指数未来十二个月的预期市盈率约21.2倍，远远高于德国DAX指数的13.5倍，日本东证指数的15.1倍。虽然日本和德国十年期国债的收益率分别为0.04%和-0.31%，大幅均低于美国十年期国债的1.31%，但德日股市估值更低。美国、德国、日本十年期国债收益率比较图\n显然，德日两国的低利率对其股市市盈率的影响不像美股。历史上，美股一直对德国和日本股市有溢价。但有意思的是，这种溢价在过去几年其实越来越高。所以，低利率对于德日股市绝对没有效果。\n差距日益扩大 \n2014年到2019年，标普500指数的市盈率相对德国DAX指数和日本东证指数分别高3.8和2.8，而现在差距扩大到7.7和6.1。显然，低利率环境在过去一年没有提高所有市场的估值。标普500指数与日本东证指数和德国DAX指数市盈率之差的变动图 \n原因也不在于市盈率增速预期\n甚至，美国市盈率的增速预期也不是最快的。日本东证指数未来十二个月的市盈率增速预计更快，为18.5%，而标普500指数为15%，德国DAX指数为11.8%。标普500指数与日本东证指数和德国DAX指数预示市盈率增速\n也许是因为在不确定时期，投资者转而追求质量，纷纷涌向美国，寻找最知名、最安全的公司。\n然而，这也可能意味着，一旦市场意识到这一点，世界就已经迎来黎明。资金配置可能开始远离美国的避险资产。那么，美股市盈率可能在一定程度上大幅压缩，而估值差距将回落到历史趋势水平。\n人们可能永远不会知道到底发生了什么。不过，似乎很明显，较低的利率未必提高股市估值，因为如果是必然的，那么美股估值就不会是最高的。\n但现在情况确实说明了一件事：目前的估值表明，要么是美股估值过高，要么是德国和日本股市的估值非常便宜。","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":null,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":869158265,"gmtCreate":1632268805457,"gmtModify":1632801659834,"author":{"id":"3572683426659077","authorId":"3572683426659077","name":"haiwei183","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1cae291bddff5a30eeb96060074d8531","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"看","listText":"看","text":"看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/869158265","repostId":2169687116,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":869184351,"gmtCreate":1632267307373,"gmtModify":1632801685343,"author":{"id":"3575508103712478","authorId":"3575508103712478","name":"60fe72a9","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"Zan","listText":"Zan","text":"Zan","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/869184351","repostId":2169687116,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":869119474,"gmtCreate":1632266454898,"gmtModify":1632266454898,"author":{"id":"3584681683305990","authorId":"3584681683305990","name":"香泉","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8d912b8b0e4d3b81943f12bb0dc672f5","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"在理，但有非经济的因素，而且可能是起决定性作用的，美国在语言，市场规模，自由度，资金周转，政治法律等方面是全世界任何市场所不具备的，如果有那就是伦敦，而其它国家市场世界其他投资客的参与受到太多不便和限制，都是孤岛型经济，美国只要做好她已有的并不断提高，加强科技和服务，坚定做好世界公仆，并向每个经济体扩张，他们的公司都可以做到全球化，重回全球化的路子，那么美国根本没有挑战者，中国经济也基本是孤岛型经济，仍在很低水平发展，个别行业有所突破，人多规模效应，很难走出国门，外面的世界也很难自由参与中国经济。美国就像钱的海洋，世界各地的财富很容易汇聚于此。","listText":"在理，但有非经济的因素，而且可能是起决定性作用的，美国在语言，市场规模，自由度，资金周转，政治法律等方面是全世界任何市场所不具备的，如果有那就是伦敦，而其它国家市场世界其他投资客的参与受到太多不便和限制，都是孤岛型经济，美国只要做好她已有的并不断提高，加强科技和服务，坚定做好世界公仆，并向每个经济体扩张，他们的公司都可以做到全球化，重回全球化的路子，那么美国根本没有挑战者，中国经济也基本是孤岛型经济，仍在很低水平发展，个别行业有所突破，人多规模效应，很难走出国门，外面的世界也很难自由参与中国经济。美国就像钱的海洋，世界各地的财富很容易汇聚于此。","text":"在理，但有非经济的因素，而且可能是起决定性作用的，美国在语言，市场规模，自由度，资金周转，政治法律等方面是全世界任何市场所不具备的，如果有那就是伦敦，而其它国家市场世界其他投资客的参与受到太多不便和限制，都是孤岛型经济，美国只要做好她已有的并不断提高，加强科技和服务，坚定做好世界公仆，并向每个经济体扩张，他们的公司都可以做到全球化，重回全球化的路子，那么美国根本没有挑战者，中国经济也基本是孤岛型经济，仍在很低水平发展，个别行业有所突破，人多规模效应，很难走出国门，外面的世界也很难自由参与中国经济。美国就像钱的海洋，世界各地的财富很容易汇聚于此。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/869119474","repostId":2169687116,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":869961405,"gmtCreate":1632236037507,"gmtModify":1632801861358,"author":{"id":"3578273090742274","authorId":"3578273090742274","name":"Sinlin","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e26a5aacb13f0157a96e28fd565c12e5","vip":1,"crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"从历史来看，那两个国家不值得长期信任","listText":"从历史来看，那两个国家不值得长期信任","text":"从历史来看，那两个国家不值得长期信任","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/869961405","repostId":2169687116,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5951544,"gmtCreate":1632267314853,"gmtModify":1634789783129,"authorId":3575508103712478,"author":{"id":3575508103712478,"authorId":3575508103712478,"name":"60fe72a9","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":869961405,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"<u>Zan</u>","text":"<u>Zan</u>","html":"<u>Zan</u>"}],"langContent":"CN"},{"id":860724454,"gmtCreate":1632217579778,"gmtModify":1632802014169,"author":{"id":"3557375403451824","authorId":"3557375403451824","name":"高明兴_8399","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c106c9c1b7bec94cd1fcd8a7834344f2","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"理解就好","listText":"理解就好","text":"理解就好","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/860724454","repostId":2169687116,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5945029,"gmtCreate":1632217586955,"gmtModify":1634790328418,"authorId":3557375403451824,"author":{"id":3557375403451824,"authorId":3557375403451824,"name":"高明兴_8399","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c106c9c1b7bec94cd1fcd8a7834344f2","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":860724454,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"ok","text":"ok","html":"ok"},{"id":5946041,"gmtCreate":1632225901520,"gmtModify":1634790246130,"authorId":3572046493348009,"author":{"id":3572046493348009,"authorId":3572046493348009,"name":"Savage_Never","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e8c5d3c6800ec12c32423a3100658845","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":860724454,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"做任务嘿嘿嘿求赞求评论蟹蟹","text":"做任务嘿嘿嘿求赞求评论蟹蟹","html":"做任务嘿嘿嘿求赞求评论蟹蟹"}],"langContent":"CN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":87,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.25.1","shortVersion":"4.25.1","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2169687116"}