台积电芯片代工涨价真相调查

芯东西2021-09-09

本周一，据日经亚洲报道，随着台积电宣布晶圆代工价格上涨，芯片及相应的终端设备价格或将在2022年继续上涨。自8月25日有媒体报道台积电代工涨价后，其具体的涨价幅度、从什么时候开始涨以及代工价格的上涨会不会向下游转移成为了行业内关心的话题。芯东西采访到了行业内的芯片设计厂商和后端企业，芯片设计厂商透露台积电已在8月25日通知全面涨价20%，而且此后上线生产的晶圆都会是涨价后的价格，设计厂商已经...

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精彩评论

神话者
2021-09-10
神话者
[微笑]
- 十八顺:
  调查什么呢 [笑哭] [笑哭]
要把梦藏在树叶里
2021-09-10
要把梦藏在树叶里
[微笑]
Youn7276
2021-09-10
Youn7276
阅
- jiann85:
  [微笑]
- Allyvic:
  Wow
Topher
2021-09-10
Topher
Let's see
- 神话者:
  [微笑]
Mingzu
2021-09-10
Mingzu
[微笑]
- Mingzu:
  [微笑]
liuxiangwei
2021-09-10
liuxiangwei
[微笑]
- liuxiangwei:
  [微笑]

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13的售价可能会因此而提高。根据拆解网站TechInsights对iPhone 12 Pro Max的数据，台积电代工的AP射频芯片占到了全机成本的19%。\n\n▲TechInsights给出的iPhone 12 Pro Max拆解图\n台积电涨价后，三星和韩国的晶圆代工厂Key Foundry也宣布在九月份会上调其芯片报价，针对不同合同额和客户，代工价格提升15%到20%不等。至此，晶圆代工价格的上涨基本已成定局。\n而据芯东西采访，受晶圆代工产能增加影响，封测厂产能将处于紧张态势，测试设备交付时间已经延长，封测厂商的报价同样存在上涨可能。\n在这样的趋势下，汽车、智能手机、可穿戴设备等市场都可能会受到一定的冲击，不过这并不意味着上述这些产品一定会涨价。\n接受芯东西采访的芯片设计厂商回应道，因为每个case的情况不同，芯片设计厂商的报价都有所不同，晶圆代工涨价对产业链下游的影响到底如何，还需要结合终端市场和供应链整体情况考虑。\n终端产品的价格是否上涨，仍取决于上下游厂商的议价能力。\n值得一提的是，尽管当前台积电有所涨价，但是很多客户都表示接受这样的价格调整。\n一方面，当前全球晶圆代工产能吃紧，对很多陷入困境的厂商来说，问题不是晶圆价格有多贵，而是能不能抢到足够的供应份额。\n另一方面，台积电的代工价格虽然单次上涨幅度较高，但仍处于一个可以接受的区间。全球第三大硅晶圆厂商环球尽管董事长兼首席执行官称，由于生产和物流成本的提升，硅晶圆和基板等芯片制造上游材料价格都在上涨。\n据悉，此前台积电代工价格普遍比联电等厂商高出15%-30%，其价格一般被视为行业标准。但在上游材料涨价、市场需求暴涨的情况下，联电的代工价格在今年已有多次上涨，其部分制程报价甚至高过台积电的报价。\n因此台积电的涨价比较符合行业趋势，对很多客户来说并不难接受。\n三、台积电先进制程投入影响收益，市场份额降低1.6%\n如果细究台积电的涨价原因，其在先进制程上的大笔投入是一个关键因素。不少分析师称，尽管台积电今年上半年的营收超过预期，但其资本支出的配置出现了错误。\n简单来说，就是成熟制程市场更加火热，但是台积电并没有投入相匹配的资金来顺应市场变化，反将各种资源投向了没那么短缺的先进制程，从而在当季的市场份额和毛利率等数据上表现平平。\n根据TrendForce的最新调查显示，台积电的市场份额由上个季度的54.5%下降到了52.9%。相比之下，联电、中芯国际、格芯等成熟制程玩家市场份额都有所增长。其中格芯和中芯国际的市场份额涨幅超过0.5%。\n而从营收增速来看，中芯国际2021年2季度营收环比增长21.8%、力积电营收环比增长18.3%、格芯营收环比增长17%。而台积电营收环比涨幅仅为3.1%，是前十大晶圆代工厂商中增速最慢的一个。\n\n▲全球十大晶圆厂排名、营收与市场份额变化\n同时，对先进制程的研发和建厂投入，也拖累了台积电的毛利率和现金流。在二季度的报告中，台积电的毛利率再次下降了2个百分点左右，其毛利率为50%。尽管台积电的净利润率较高，但是其现金流大部分都被投入到了新的工厂和设备中。\n联电等玩家的毛利率却一路走高，从去年年初的不到20%，如今已达31.25%。世界先进、力积电等厂商毛利率甚至接近40%。\n事实上，针对台积电毛利率、投资回报不断下降的趋势，摩根士丹利分析师在6月中旬就有过报告，认为其行业优势正在减弱，降低了台积电的投资评级。随后在诸多不利影响下，台积电股价一路下跌，21日市值蒸发近5000亿新台币（约合1000亿人民币）。\n国金证券的半导体分析师陆行之评论称，此前台积电在先进制程上花费了过多的资本预算，从而在成熟制程上失去了部分市场份额。台积电当前顺应大流的涨价，可以弥补自身的支出分配问题。\n陆行之认为，短期内，台积电的涨价将会压低市场需求，为那些短缺情况最严重且别无选择的客户保留一定产能供应。从长远来说，更高的收入将帮助台积电投资新的产能。而在涨价过后，台积电的毛利率目标也随之水涨船高。\n\n▲成熟制程涨幅对代工厂毛利率影响\n四、结语：台积电涨价引发行业新动作，成熟制程市场争夺战正在酝酿\n继台积电涨价之后，资本市场给出回应，其股价8月26日后出现了大幅回升。在当前产线满负荷运转之际，本次涨价可能会直拉动台积电的营收和毛利增长，助力其新厂投资与三星的制程竞争。\n但在台积电宣布涨价后，联电等晶圆代工厂商也希望与部分芯片设计客户签订2-3年的长约，以保证自己的盈利。未来，台积电为了保证自己的市场份额和话语权，可能也会有所动作，成熟制程市场或成角力场。","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":null,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":883169700,"gmtCreate":1631227473700,"gmtModify":1631892082047,"author":{"id":"4090235052856760","authorId":"4090235052856760","name":"神话者","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8b20ae15ae6c2600ed63bffb924fc3d1","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/622fc56f7e67b5729addb4e78a195511","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/883169700","repostId":2166034532,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5810807,"gmtCreate":1631228820704,"gmtModify":1631892082038,"authorId":3501998685270291,"author":{"id":3501998685270291,"authorId":3501998685270291,"name":"十八顺","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65272cb112539122118d0010eda02867","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":883169700,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"调查什么呢 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