美联储的缩债时间表会推迟吗？

格隆汇2021-09-08

圣路易斯联储主席布拉德周三表示，尽管上月美国就业增长疲弱，但美联储应继续推进缩减购债规模。布拉德反驳了人们对劳动力市场复苏乏力的担忧。他表示： “对员工的需求很大，职位空缺比失业员工还多。如果员工能够与雇主匹配，并且疫情得到控制，那么2022年的劳动力市场将会非常强劲。” 布拉德称他对就业市场的判断并未基于一份就业报告的强弱，而是基于今年每月平均新增的就业岗位，这一数字约为50万人/月，与8...

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2021-09-09
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“当身处危机时，我们就必须准备好迎接一些曲折。这些就业数据不可能保持稳定。”\n\n在8月之前，劳动力市场已经取得了一系列令人印象深刻的增长，6月和7月都新增了大约100万个工作岗位。\n随着失业率的下降，美联储官员已经准备好今年开始缩减购债规模。促使他们达成这一共识的条件为：在实现就业最大化和2%的平均通胀率目标上取得“实质性进展”。\n不过，美联储缩债时间表的变数却不断涌现。德尔塔病毒引起的新冠肺炎病例持续激增，且有新的证据表明，休闲和酒店等许多服务型行业的招聘已经放缓。\n周二，布拉德承认，对德尔塔变种毒株的担忧确实对就业市场产生了影响，但他强调，其他供应方面的问题也阻碍了人们重返工作岗位，包括本周到期的关乎750多万美国人的失业救济。他说:\n\n “工作还在，只是工人们现在可能不想接受这些工作。”\n\n他补充道，疫情期间个人储蓄大幅增加，加上政府向大批成年人发放的1400美元经济刺激支票，美国人的“家庭收入充足”。因此，他们有能力在选择工作时更加谨慎，亦或他们觉得，通过继续等待或寻找，可以找到一份更好的工作。\n为了吸引新员工，雇主们被迫争相加薪——这一现象在上个月尤其明显，推动平均时薪较7月份上涨了0.6%。\n但布拉德表示，随着更多工人返回劳动力，他预计到今年年底，失业率将降至5%以下。\n布拉德是联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）任职时间最长的成员之一，明年将成为票委。他是美联储中较为“鹰派”的成员之一。\n长期以来，他一直敦促美联储尽快退出经济刺激措施，以确保在通货膨胀比预期更持久的情况下，提高明年加息的灵活性。布拉德表示：\n\n “许多人说，到2022年通胀将会缓和，这是有可能的。但鉴于德尔塔病毒的传播对全球供应链的冲击，我们也有理由认为，通胀不会缓和，并且还有可能继朝另一个方向发展。”\n\n布拉德提出迅速缩减购债规模的原因还在于“房地产泡沫雏形”的显现，这在一定程度上是由美联储的超宽松货币政策推动的。近几个月房价飙升，标普CoreLogic Case-Shiller最新的全国住房数据显示，房价较2020年6月上涨了18.6%。\n布拉德认为，总体而言，缩债将于今年开始，并于2022年上半年某个时候结束。\n2022年第一季度末完成缩债将为美联储加息提供了选择。\n财经网站Forexlive分析师Justin表示，不要指望只有布拉德一人持有这种观点。正如本周早些时候所提到的，尽管上周五公布的就业报告数据表现疲软可能缓解了市场投资者对美联储缩减购债规模的预期，但这不会推迟其在年底前缩债的时间表。","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":889542074,"gmtCreate":1631162738398,"gmtModify":1631162738398,"author":{"id":"3549068387556952","authorId":"3549068387556952","name":"吐达洪","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/818ebe89e7f9d9e64309e7c750c03522","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75944ad144f2566ba526ce9b292d3cd2","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3549068387556952","authorIdStr":"3549068387556952"},"htmlText":"🌹","listText":"🌹","text":"🌹","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/889542074","repostId":2165236751,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":889825790,"gmtCreate":1631141879810,"gmtModify":1632884437678,"author":{"id":"3584652354468235","authorId":"3584652354468235","name":"moon88","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1fd191b51024ac1ae2bdcf80d743ab78","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3584652354468235","authorIdStr":"3584652354468235"},"htmlText":"赞","listText":"赞","text":"赞","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/889825790","repostId":2165236751,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5797856,"gmtCreate":1631141959446,"gmtModify":1634805044401,"authorId":3584652354468235,"author":{"id":3584652354468235,"idStr":"3584652354468235","authorId":3584652354468235,"name":"moon88","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1fd191b51024ac1ae2bdcf80d743ab78","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":889825790,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"赞","text":"赞","html":"赞"}],"langContent":"CN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":19,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 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