美国财政大紧缩？市场准备好“秋季动荡”了吗？

华尔街见闻2021-09-06

在财政刺激见顶、美国政府债务上限即将到期之际，投资者需要为美股秋季的波动性下跌做好准备。 01 投资者需要为股市秋季波动做好准备在一系列货币和财政刺激、经济和盈利增长以及疫情消退刺激下，标普500指数今年以来已经上涨20%，连续7月上涨。这一上涨幅度还是在去年低位反弹68%的高基数基础上完成的。据美国银行统计，标准普尔500指数在2021年创下53个收盘记录新高，这在过去100年里排名第四，并...

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精彩评论

Peiji2082
2021-09-06
Peiji2082
该来的还是会来的[贱笑]
jeffpyl
2021-09-06
jeffpyl
好
中国ChinaATM
2021-09-06
中国ChinaATM
动次打次
kelvinlim
2021-09-06
kelvinlim
这篇文章不错，转发给大家看
Wishonest
2021-09-06
Wishonest
[惊吓]
- YourCFP:
  [难过]

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Is the market ready for \"autumn turmoil\"?","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/80dde94695ad87187ffb4e0366692596","symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9},"content_text":"在财政刺激见顶、美国政府债务上限即将到期之际，投资者需要为美股秋季的波动性下跌做好准备。\n01\n投资者需要为股市秋季波动做好准备\n在一系列货币和财政刺激、经济和盈利增长以及疫情消退刺激下，标普500指数今年以来已经上涨20%，连续7月上涨。这一上涨幅度还是在去年低位反弹68%的高基数基础上完成的。\n据美国银行统计，标准普尔500指数在2021年创下53个收盘记录新高，这在过去100年里排名第四，并有望超过1995年创下的77个纪录高点。\n但目前市场情况可能有所变化：美国政府刺激支出已见顶；经济和企业盈利增长可能会在年底前放缓；拜登政府已提议提高公司和个人税率；更重要的是，美联储此前暗示将在未来几个月内开始减少债券购买，所有这些似乎都将不利于股票持有者。\n02\n政策财政刺激或已见顶\n在政策财政刺激方面，目前每周300美元的联邦失业补助将于9月6日到期。\n尽管国会似乎有可能在今年秋季通过一项基础设施法案，但与2020年3月以来推出的多轮刺激计划相比，近期的刺激计划经济影响相对有限。\n新法案包括了大约5500亿美元的新支出——这只是以前批准的数万亿美元刺激计划的一小部分——而且将分摊至未来多年完成。新基础设施刺激计划对消费支出的短期提振，将无法与去年数百万美国人收到政府支票后的经济状况相比。消费支出占美国国内生产总值（GDP）增长的近70%。\n民主党通过的预算法案同时包括支持联邦医疗保险(Medicare)扩张、儿童保育基金、免费社区大学学费、公共住房和气候相关措施等党内优先事项。国会可能会投票决定提高对企业和高收入个人的税收，这将抵消支出带来的提振——这是市场面临的另一个短期风险。\n03\n民主党增税计划或对市场造成冲击\n一个潜在的阻力将是在2022年提高联邦企业税率。民主党的支出和税收计划的细节将在未来几周内浮出水面，投资者有望听到更多关于潜在增税的消息。\n主流市场观点认为，25%的联邦企业利润税率可能是一个折中方案，这高于2018年以来的21%，但低于拜登政府寻求的28%。\n这样的增幅将使标准普尔500指数成份股公司明年的收益减少约5%。随着民主党和解法案在今年秋季获得通过，该指数可能会出现类似幅度的下跌，但其影响应仅限于最初的调整。一些策略师预测，就像2017年12月的减税一样，这一变化对市场来说应该是一次性事件。\n除了财政刺激见顶、增税影响外，美股今秋还可能受到债务上限上调的影响。美国国会需要在本月晚些时候通过提高债务上限以筹集政府资金，以及一项临时开支法案，以避免华盛顿在10月份关闭。\n04\n做多防御性高质量资产\n在疫苗接种方面，美银分析师Michael Hartnett此前表示，尽管目前全球已经接种了53亿剂疫苗，但也未能够帮助经济重新开放，但社会和经济仍受制于疫情。Hartnett在分析中指出，全球宏观经济毫无疑问处于滞胀状态，但市场的交易逻辑却是，经济增长受Delta病毒影响暂缓，那么美联储就不会Taper，那么央行流动性无限的时代就将继续下去。\n真正的风险在于，如果美国月新增就业没有达到100万人，那么Taper可能暂缓，美联储引发的泡沫将继续增长。\n在这样的背景下，Hartnett建议做多股市和信贷高质量资产，尤其是防御性高质量资产，以对冲宏观滞胀，以及不断减弱的财政和货币政策刺激。美银同时建议做多大宗商品以对冲通胀风险。","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":817030286,"gmtCreate":1630889652245,"gmtModify":1631883781950,"author":{"id":"3558261805301994","authorId":"3558261805301994","name":"Peiji2082","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/343f304a5501207aa26984592a0c306b","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3558261805301994","authorIdStr":"3558261805301994"},"htmlText":"该来的还是会来的[贱笑]&nbsp;","listText":"该来的还是会来的[贱笑]&nbsp;","text":"该来的还是会来的[贱笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/817030286","repostId":2165096804,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":814777257,"gmtCreate":1630888273179,"gmtModify":1631889168571,"author":{"id":"3581990446454079","authorId":"3581990446454079","name":"jeffpyl","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1532460749723fcc82656a61fb30d4fa","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3581990446454079","authorIdStr":"3581990446454079"},"htmlText":"好","listText":"好","text":"好","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/814777257","repostId":2165096804,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":814742818,"gmtCreate":1630887655034,"gmtModify":1632905365657,"author":{"id":"3584867430360256","authorId":"3584867430360256","name":"中国ChinaATM","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd214125064b4d25501bb48cef2fb529","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3584867430360256","authorIdStr":"3584867430360256"},"htmlText":"动次打次","listText":"动次打次","text":"动次打次","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/814742818","repostId":2165096804,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":814752501,"gmtCreate":1630887267103,"gmtModify":1631890441526,"author":{"id":"3584162947321626","authorId":"3584162947321626","name":"kelvinlim","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/51f87487f40781fd53b7730ef96d02ea","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3584162947321626","authorIdStr":"3584162947321626"},"htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/814752501","repostId":2165096804,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":814752322,"gmtCreate":1630887244066,"gmtModify":1631889517843,"author":{"id":"3582234586447453","authorId":"3582234586447453","name":"Wishonest","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/172444fe348e722381bd6cf837b52614","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3582234586447453","authorIdStr":"3582234586447453"},"htmlText":"[惊吓]&nbsp;","listText":"[惊吓]&nbsp;","text":"[惊吓]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/814752322","repostId":2165096804,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5764777,"gmtCreate":1630887407703,"gmtModify":1631889517839,"authorId":3569263461157925,"author":{"id":3569263461157925,"idStr":"3569263461157925","authorId":3569263461157925,"name":"YourCFP","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a1f5e965075ba7b03f9c5aade30f04ed","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":814752322,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"[难过]","text":"[难过]","html":"[难过]"}],"langContent":"CN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":31,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 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