华尔街大行：美国滞胀=市场泡沫

华尔街见闻2021-09-05

滞胀对于美国经济来说事件坏事，但对于美国金融市场来说，却是一件好事。一向悲观的美国银行分析师Michael Hartnett在近日一份报告中表示，全球宏观经济毫无疑问处于滞胀状态，但市场的交易逻辑却是，经济增长受Delta病毒影响暂缓，那么美联储就不会Taper，那么央行流动性无限的时代就将继续下去。在这样的“阿Q精神”引领下，资本市场一派欣欣向荣。据美国银行统计，标准普尔500指数在...

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kanli94
2021-09-05
kanli94
再创新高
亿兆富翁
2021-09-05
亿兆富翁
[微笑] [微笑] [微笑]
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糟糕的财政状况，加上Delta变异病毒肆虐，以及飙升的通胀，是导致美国消费者信心和支出疲软的罪魁祸首。近几个月实际零售销售为负，而汽车销售同比下降了14%。\n\n\n\n\n此外，周五公布的美国就业数据也再度让市场大跌眼镜。美国劳工部公布数据显示，美国8月非农就业人口增加23.5万人，大幅不及市场预期的73.3万人，创2021年1月以来最小增幅。\n在疫苗接种方面，美银预计，到11月1日，全球接种规模将达到78亿剂，相当于地球上的每个人接种一剂。但美银也指出一个遗憾的事实，那就是尽管目前全球已经接种了53亿剂疫苗，但也未能够帮助经济重新开放，但社会和经济仍受制于疫情。\n\nHartnett指出，真正的风险在于，如果美国月新增就业没有达到100万人，那么Taper可能暂缓，美联储引发的泡沫将继续增长。\n在这样的背景下，美银建议做多股市和信贷高质量资产，尤其是防御性高质量资产，以对冲宏观滞胀，以及不断减弱的财政和货币政策刺激。美银同时建议做多大宗商品以对冲通胀风险。","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":814616824,"gmtCreate":1630811958068,"gmtModify":1632905760613,"author":{"id":"4088200389009690","authorId":"4088200389009690","name":"kanli94","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/752526a04e86b68ceab5aa718426c9aa","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4088200389009690","authorIdStr":"4088200389009690"},"htmlText":"再创新高","listText":"再创新高","text":"再创新高","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/814616824","repostId":2164809525,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":814836588,"gmtCreate":1630804742844,"gmtModify":1631890855330,"author":{"id":"3575451819389849","authorId":"3575451819389849","name":"亿兆富翁","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d688c91a5f00d7bc768bc23b304da0a2","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3575451819389849","authorIdStr":"3575451819389849"},"htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;[微笑]&nbsp;[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;[微笑]&nbsp;[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑] 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