美国非农“爆冷”！美联储Taper又悬了？

华尔街见闻2021-09-04

继美联储主席鲍威尔杰克逊霍尔讲话后，市场对Taper时间表预期基本上达成了一致，但最新公布的非农就业数据大跌眼镜，或再次打乱美联储的Taper节奏。周五（9月3日），美国劳工部公布数据显示，美国8月非农就业人口增加23.5万人，大幅不及市场预期的73.3万人，创2021年1月以来最小增幅。失业率方面，美国8月失业率5.2%，符合市场预期，较前值的5.4%略微改善。8月平均时薪继续改善，环比上涨...

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精彩评论

Youn7276
2021-09-06
Youn7276
阅！
LittleGuiLin
2021-09-05
LittleGuiLin
不太冷
Youn7276
2021-09-05
Youn7276
阅！
- LittleGuiLin:
  [开心]
富發
2021-09-04
富發
牛市剛開始
中国ChinaATM
2021-09-04
中国ChinaATM
冷砂
- jiann85:
  [微笑]
Fredwkh
2021-09-04
Fredwkh
Like and comment pls

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Financial 首席执行官Jay Pestrichelli 称，美联储将不用急着taper，至少在短期内，这可以被视为对金融市场的利好消息。\n但也有不少人预言，由于薪资数据颇为亮眼，且放缓可能是由一些暂时性因素造成，因此不会改变美联储年内宣布Taper的时间表。\n摩根士丹利高级美国经济学家Robert Rosener称，这份数据消除了9月宣布Taper的紧迫性，但年内仍可能宣布缩减QE，只不过随着Delta毒株正在抑制经济活动，时间点变得非常不确定。\nRosener在报告中表示，虽然8月非农就业人数意外下降，但几乎所有降幅都能归因于教育和休闲&酒店行业的暂时放缓，这表明，就业增长仍有可能在未来几个月反弹。\n他认为，8月数据大失所望后，9月和10月的就业数据将非常关键。尤其是在美联储11月FOMC会议前，就只能看到9月非农就业报告，这份报告需要足够强劲，来证明劳动力市场达到了“实质性的进一步进展”（substantial further progress）。\n高盛表示，尽管数据逊于预期，但还没有弱到扰乱美联储正式宣布缩减购债规模的时间表。\n高盛策略师在最新研报中称，由于7月非农就业增加了超百万人，8月新增就业只要达到50万或更少，都将与美联储在11月宣布Taper相一致。他们依旧认为，随着延长的失业福利在下周全面到期，将在年底前增加150万的就业人数，符合美联储年内宣布Taper的条件。\n高盛保持了对美联储缩减购债规模可能性预测，依然相信美联储11月开启Taper的可能性是45%，推迟到12月的可能性是35%，推迟到2022年的可能性是20%。鉴于Delta病毒带来的风险，高盛预计，FOMC将以每次会议150亿美元的速度缩减购债规模，其中100亿美元是国债， 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