美联储暂缓Taper稳了？9月数据大概也不好看

华尔街见闻2021-09-05

上个月，美国的就业市场遭受了新冠病毒的重大打击。华尔街日报表示，预计9月份的就业情况也不会好转，而这可能会使美联储暂缓taper。美国劳工部周五公布数据显示，美国8月份新增就业岗位23.5万个，远低于经济学家预期的72万个。在今年截至7月的半年时间里，酒店和其他住宿行业平均每月增加5.67万名员工，但环比仅增加了6600名。 8月份，餐馆、酒吧和其他食品服务和饮酒场所相反减少了4.15万个...

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王柏荣
2021-09-06
王柏荣
美国必败
张士华
2021-09-05
张士华
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The September data is probably not good-looking either","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b469f93c868380318647c0b7b690836f","symbols_score_info":{"159934":0.9,"161125":0.9,"513500":0.9,"518880":0.9,"SDOW":0.9,"GLD":0.9,"IAU":0.9,"IVV":0.9,"NUGT":0.9,"OEF":0.9,"OEX":0.9,"PSQ":0.9,"QID":0.9,"QLD":0.9,"QQQ":0.9,"GDX":0.9,"SDS":0.9,"SH":0.9,"SPXU":0.9,"SPY":0.9,"SQQQ":0.9,"SSO":0.9,"TQQQ":0.9,"UDOW":0.9,"UPRO":0.9,"DUST":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"DDM":0.9,"DJX":0.9,"DOG":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"DXD":0.9,"ESmain":0.9,"GCmain":0.9,"MGCmain":0.9,"MNQmain":0.9,"NQmain":0.9,"SGCmain":0.9,"SGUmain":0.9,"SImain":0.9},"content_text":"上个月，美国的就业市场遭受了新冠病毒的重大打击。\n华尔街日报表示，预计9月份的就业情况也不会好转，而这可能会使美联储暂缓taper。\n美国劳工部周五公布数据显示，美国8月份新增就业岗位23.5万个，远低于经济学家预期的72万个。\n在今年截至7月的半年时间里，酒店和其他住宿行业平均每月增加5.67万名员工，但环比仅增加了6600名。\n8月份，餐馆、酒吧和其他食品服务和饮酒场所相反减少了4.15万个工作岗位；而在之前六个月里，这些行业平均增加了22.74万个工作岗位。\n华尔街日报认为，在某种程度上，这些数据的疲软可能是由于需求的疲软。\nDelta病毒的传播使人们对外出就餐等活动更加谨慎。随着这类消费业务受到打击，一些雇主就暂停了招聘员工。\n同时，越来越多的人对回办公室工作感到紧张。美国劳工部表示，没有工作、也不积极寻找工作但希望有工作的人数比7月份减少了83.5万人，为570万人。\n此外，上个月，25岁至54岁的在职或正在找工作的女性人数有所减少。\n这可能表明，由于Delta病毒的传播和新学年的开始，女性在照顾孩子方面的考虑产生了越来越大的影响。\n如果疫情的传播态势有所减缓，工人的需求和供应都应该会增加，但9月份的就业报告暂时应该不会反映出这一点。\n如今美国每日的新增新冠病例数、住院人数和死亡人数都高于8月中旬的水平。\n越来越多的学校开始了新的学期，越来越多的学校也正因为新冠病毒而停课。就业方面的复苏前景仍需等待。\n此次就业数据大幅不及预期，可能会使美联储放缓taper的步伐。\n鲍威尔在此前的全球央行年会上表示，年内可能Taper，但距离加息遥远。事实上，美国远未满足加息条件，“距离充分就业还有很长的路要走”。\n鲍威尔明确指出，美联储朝着其通胀目标已经实现了“实质性的进一步进展”，在实现最大化就业方面也取得了“明显进展”但还不够。如果经济持续发展符合预期，“在7月FOMC会上，我和大多数参与者都认为，今年开始放缓资产购买步伐可能是合适的。”\n摩根士丹利高级美国经济学家Robert Rosener表示，8月数据大失所望后，9月和10月的就业数据将非常关键。\n尤其是在美联储11月FOMC会议前，就只能看到9月非农就业报告，这份报告需要足够强劲，来证明劳动力市场达到了“实质性的进一步进展”（substantial further progress）。","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":null,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":814785348,"gmtCreate":1630885832584,"gmtModify":1630885832584,"author":{"id":"3578104932361224","authorId":"3578104932361224","name":"王柏荣","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9c209ad32660e8e8088a7a75d197dcc5","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"美国必败","listText":"美国必败","text":"美国必败","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/814785348","repostId":2164280671,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":814202758,"gmtCreate":1630819143974,"gmtModify":1630819143974,"author":{"id":"3564022627540469","authorId":"3564022627540469","name":"张士华","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/104a77b1d056c10c9290ca75c4558697","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"阅","listText":"阅","text":"阅","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/814202758","repostId":2164280671,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":27,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.25.1","shortVersion":"4.25.1","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2164280671"}