料杰克逊霍尔年会难言紧缩，分析师继续看涨美股

第一财经2021-08-26

一年一度的杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会即将在本周四开幕，不过这场被众所期待的会议很有可能以“雷声大雨点小”的结局收尾。太多的顾虑和不确定性，让美联储还是看起来像被市场“拽着走”，而不是保持本应有的姿态。美国投行与机构证券公司Piper Sandler的首席市场技术分析师克雷格·约翰逊（Craig Johnson）在接受第一财经记者专访时表示，尽管这会是一场观看率很高的会议，但相比此前公布的7月货币政策...

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精彩评论

RomySKT
2021-08-26
RomySKT
[微笑]
- ccssyy:
  好
富發
2021-08-26
富發
先买中概股等爆发
kiore
2021-08-26
kiore
赌一把了，我赌大！
- HY1986:
  [财迷]

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Bernanke）面临过相同问题。但伯南克当时认为，超预期时长的维持超低利率或者提高美联储通胀目标都不是好的选择。他在2010年8月27日央行年会的演讲中，谈到了美联储有哪些政策工具可以应对经济放缓，比如提高持有长期证券的规模，通过调整声明措辞向投资者传递信息，以及降低美联储支付给超额准备金的利率。但是，对于提高美联储中期通胀目标的方法，伯南克表达了反对态度。他认为这样的策略并不适合美国。通胀率很可能会更高且更为波动，从而破坏市场信心和家庭做长期规划的能力，亦会损害美联储有能力战胜通胀的信誉。随着通胀预期变得不稳定，资产市场风险溢价也会上升，弊大于利。\n当然，11年前的美国乃至全球经济状况和现在截然不同，纯粹地比较政策选择亦不太合适。只是，当前美国的通胀状况依旧没有得到大幅缓解。与民众生活密切相关的日常消费品和食品都在继续上涨。举个数字不太严谨的例子，一个月前花20多美元就可以在超市买到的生牛尾，现在已经涨到30美元。\n或许，这与美联储的通胀暂时论并无矛盾。在去年的全球央行会议上，鲍威尔宣布货币政策框架改革，将2%的通胀目标变为长期平均2%的目标，同时将重点放在就业最大化方面。这意味着美联储更加着重如何促进就业，并会在一定程度上容忍高通胀。本周五，伴随鲍威尔讲话的还有美国7月核心个人消费支出（PCE）价格指数的发布，这是美联储最关注的通胀指标。剔除波动较大的食品及能源价格后，该指标在6月份同比涨幅3.5%创20年以来新高。\nPiper Sandler重申标普500年底目标位4625点\n诚然，虽然与去年央行年会时一样，美国仍困于疫情危机，但经济却似乎呈现截然不同的景象。伴随着拜登政府大规模经济刺激计划，不少美国企业竟深陷招聘难的问题。与此同时，美股还在不断创新高。约翰逊指出，标普500指数在本周二创下了今年来的第50次新高。而在今年，市场基本每3.3个交易日就会创新高，这与1995年的节奏非常像，那年市场涨了30%。所以他认为对于投资者来说，没有理由改变路线，可以继续看涨股市。Piper Sandler预计标普500指数会在今年升至4625点。\n面对即将来临的9月，从历史上来看，9月通常是股市回报率最差的月份。回调风险有所提高。从技术角度来看，美股在今年2月大跌之后接连上涨。如果留意那些创了26周新高或新低的股票的高低点，现在创新低的数量高于创新高的数量。从上周到本周，罗素2000指数在2130支撑点位反弹，接近50日均线水平。但如果最终未能回到50日均线上方，将令人开始担忧。\n\n基于当前市场的趋势和强度，约翰逊建议投资者增持金融板块，基础材料板块和消费者周期性板块，回避必需消费品板块、公用事业板块，以及尤其是中小型的健保板块。因为包括强生、辉瑞等大型制药公司在内的大型健保板块走势不错，但小型公司的表现不尽人意。比如SPDR生物科技股指数ETF（SPDR S&P Biotech 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