阿里被近70%外资机构“看多”，抄底机会来了？

证券市场红周刊2021-08-23

受监管阴影等因素影响的互联网电商巨头——阿里巴巴，股价不断创下年内新低，市值大幅缩水。但据阿里的美股二季度机构持仓来看，在1757家持仓机构中，约7成机构给予了阿里“赞成票”，对于阿里的未来预期，机构的态度远未“如此悲观。” 在机构来看，受“监管导致的偏好下降”已获充分反映，另有观点认为，阿里“目前估值已经颇具吸引力”，但“抄底时机”还为时尚早。二季度外资机构近7成“看多”阿里高盛、施罗德、...

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精彩评论

Woshidui
2021-08-23
Woshidui
看来骗来不少散户
Lhop
2021-08-23
Lhop
叫人抄底阿里巴巴的，蠢且坏[真香]
Kianyong
2021-08-23
Kianyong
阿里巴巴真的那么不堪吗？
美美滴玩
2021-08-23
美美滴玩
可以买了
新加坡小飞侠
2021-08-23
新加坡小飞侠
哈哈哈哈，看到这么多人看空，是时候买入了
_无解_
2021-08-23
_无解_
赶紧跑

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href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN202108221643477c31a0c8&s=b><strong>证券市场红周刊</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>受监管阴影等因素影响的互联网电商巨头——阿里巴巴，股价不断创下年内新低，市值大幅缩水。但据阿里的美股二季度机构持仓来看，在1757家持仓机构中，约7成机构给予了阿里“赞成票”，对于阿里的未来预期，机构的态度远未“如此悲观。” 在机构来看，受“监管导致的偏好下降”已获充分反映，另有观点认为，阿里“目前估值已经颇具吸引力”，但“抄底时机”还为时尚早。\n二季度外资机构近7成“看多”阿里\n高盛、施罗德、...</p>\n\n<a 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机构近五个季度持仓阿里\n\n数据来源：Wind\n从增持名单来看，高盛（GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INC）目前持仓阿里市值最高，达69亿美元，二季度，高盛增仓阿里23.86%，目前，为高盛二季度第五大重仓股。（注：高盛二季度总持仓市值为4463亿美元）\n值得一提的是，高盛对阿里的增持并非短期动作，而是“长情行为”。据Wind数据显示，曾在2014年3季度，高盛即建仓阿里，当时持仓仅23,032.2万美元，截至今年2季度末，已连续持仓达25个季度，且在其间不断增仓。\n图2 高盛持仓阿里巴巴\n\n数据来源：Wind\n另外，二季度对阿里进行增持且持仓市值居前的公司还包括SCHRODER INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT GROUP（施罗德投资管理集团）、MORGAN STANLEY（摩根士丹利）、PRIMECAP管理公司等。\n表1 二季度主要增仓阿里机构（部分）\n\n数据来源：Wind\n与之相对，二季度，共有561家机构对阿里进行了减仓。统计显示，减仓幅度＜20%的公司332家，减仓幅度在20%~50%的公司有136家。减仓幅度＞50%的机构有93家，其中有39家机构减仓超过80%，如BLACKROCK INC.（贝莱德）减仓达88.28 %，持仓市值由今年一季度末的190.1亿美元降至22.3亿美元。此外，STATE STREET CORP（美国道富银行）减仓幅度同样高达86.23 %；\n表2 二季度主要减仓阿里机构（部分）\n\n数据来源：Wind\n股价“腰斩”市值缩水超4000亿美元\n“监管”充分反映估值已具“吸引力\n截至美东时间8月19日收盘，阿里巴巴(BABA.US)当日重挫6.85%，刷新年内新低，今年以来，阿里累计跌幅已经达到了31%。而自去年10月27日高点至今，累计跌幅已近50%，几近“腰斩”。\n图3 阿里股价表现\n\n数据来源：Wind\n伴随股价下跌，阿里市值大幅缩水。目前来看，阿里最新市值为约4364亿美元，相较于年初6243亿美元缩水1879亿美元，相较于去年10月27日高点8507亿美元市值缩水4143亿美元。\n图4 阿里市值变化（亿美元）\n\n数据来源：Wind\n进一步来看，阿里估值水平也出现进一步下降。今年以来，阿里估值多保持在20倍~30倍之间，最新估值仅在20倍左右。\n图5 阿里估值水平变化\n\n数据来源：Wind\n阿里长线投资价值逐步凸显\n但不建议贸然“抄底”\n与二季度多数投资机构对阿里持有“积极态度”相通，券商也同样给予阿里“乐观预判”。\n如中信证券，据其8月上旬发布的研究报告指出，阿里巴巴发布FY2022Q1业绩，核心商业稳健增长，其认为，股价经过持续调整，已反映公司新业务投入对业绩增长影响的悲观预期，及监管风险带来的估值偏好下降。而伴随着阿里巴巴新业务的不断推进，公司的技术和服务能力呈现明显提升态势，公司依然具有较好的相对竞争优势，维持对公司中长期发展的乐观判断。\n招商证券(香港) 认为，由于监管机构禁止通过价格倾销来促销，竞争环境变得更加公平，而阿里的优势如充足的现金储备，以及强大的供应链能力（如高鑫零售在生鲜、快消品类的供给）则更能被凸显。此外，阿里承诺将着眼于长期价值，并将加大在供应链、履约能力和基础设施上的投入。\n有观点认为，阿里“目前估值已经颇具吸引力”，但“抄底时机”还为时尚早。如雪球大V@陈达美股投资表示，阿里的估值创新低，“但不会贸然抄底...”。\n而从《红周刊》采访的多位投资人反馈来看，对于阿里的长期投资价值 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