暂时通胀论 VS 持续通胀论，美国物价将怎么走？

智通财经2021-08-13

美国本周公布的CPI数据略低于预期，但PPI意外跃升，引发了市场对投入成本的担忧。这些好坏参半的数据并没有帮助调和暂时通胀还是持续通胀的争论，也同样并没有阻止标普500指数创下历史新高。暂时通胀派：通胀已可控智通财经APP了解到，瑞银在一份报告中指出，暂时通胀论阵营具有优势，有以下三个原因：与疫情相关的通胀驱动因素正在消退瑞银首席投资官Mark Haefele领导的策略师团在一份报告中写道...

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富發
2021-08-13
富發
涨
程军霞
2021-08-13
程军霞
👍
Aprilneo
2021-08-13
Aprilneo
有点担心美国通货膨胀

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油价上涨放缓，将消除总体通胀背后的一个主要推动力。”\n持续通胀派：房租价格或成为通胀下降拦路虎\n另一方面，经济学家预计，7月份的通胀数据依然高涨，但可能已经见顶。尽管通胀已预期见顶，但关于通胀是否只是暂时上升的争论将不会结束，其中一个重要关注点是，经济学家预计房租将继续上涨。\n美国银行对业主等价租金迅速反弹的影响表示担忧。美银分析师Michelle Meyer在报告中称：\"中期而言，劳动力市场回归至传统的紧缺水平，以及随之而来的工资上涨，将支撑业主等价租金的轨迹。我们认为，到2022年，业主等价租金将达到每年4.5%，这将是自2002年初以来最强劲的增速。这将使得更广泛的核心通胀保持在目标值上方，即使短期通胀消退。”\n房租价格明年可能会继续上涨。NatWest Markets首席美国经济学家Kevin Cummins表示：“很多因为经济的重新开放和需求上升而暂时飙升的价格都将在明年放缓，但租金成本例外。”\nCummins指出，去年的租金上涨了2.3%，今年预计上涨2.4%。但到了2022年，涨幅会更大，CPI中的租金可能会上涨3.2%。\n穆迪分析公司的首席经济学家Mark 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