中美股市估值数据对比：谁的泡沫大，哪些行业机会多

格隆汇2021-08-11

今天我们用中美两个市场的估值数据做个对比，看看两个市场的泡沫谁更大？最后也补充了一下A股各行业的估值对比，通过对比金融地产、煤炭有色，及科技新兴产业、白酒消费行业的估值水平，有些行业甚至已经达到了前无古人、后无来者的阶段。 1、首先从市盈率PE、PB、股息率、风险溢价等指标来判断中美两个市场的系统性风险大小。美国三大指数（道琼斯、标准普尔500、纳斯达克）的估值水平道琼斯工业指数PE 、PB ...

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精彩评论

杨定
2021-08-12
杨定
前无古人可以说，后无来者不能乱说，说不定锂电板块马上刷新记录。
Youn7276
2021-08-12
Youn7276
阅！

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href=http://www.gelonghui.com/p/480392><strong>格隆汇</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>今天我们用中美两个市场的估值数据做个对比，看看两个市场的泡沫谁更大？最后也补充了一下A股各行业的估值对比，通过对比金融地产、煤炭有色，及科技新兴产业、白酒消费行业的估值水平，有些行业甚至已经达到了前无古人、后无来者的阶段。\n1、首先从市盈率PE、PB、股息率、风险溢价等指标来判断中美两个市场的系统性风险大小。\n美国三大指数（道琼斯、标准普尔500、纳斯达克）的估值水平\n道琼斯工业指数PE 、PB ...</p>\n\n<a 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Bands\n\n标准普尔500指数PE Bands\n\n标准普尔500指数PB Bands\n\n美股股息率处于2000年以来的最低位\n\n\n2、我们再来看看A股各指数的估值及风险溢价水平\n上证指数当前3500点的风险溢价水平仍然适中，处于均值和中位数的位置。\n\n我们从指数估值百分位的位置可以发现收益率分布的规律\n\n上图表明：风险溢价的水平越高，收益率分布在正收益区间的概率也就越大，所以，不要害怕股市下跌，股市下跌才会提升风险溢价水平，提供的风险补偿才会越大。\n中证500的估值（PE、PB）具有吸引力\n\n\n科创50市净率、市盈率均已突破或接近危险值\n\n\n创业板指数估值（市净率、市盈率）已经突破或处于危险值附近，相比2015年的极端值而言仍有一定距离。\n\n\n从收益分布的角度来看，创业板指数市净率在9倍以上，未来一年收益率为负的概率非常大。\n\n对比各指数估值水平可见，科创50和创业板指数的估值风险比上证指数和中证500要高。\n3、再通过各行业的历史估值对比，看看目前A股哪些行业存在低估的机会和高估的风险。\n保险指数的风险溢价水平已经到了20年以来的最高水平，反映了投资者过度悲观的预期。\n\n房地产行业的风险溢价水平也到了历史最高的水平附近。\n\n银行业的风险溢价水平达到了最近5年的最高值，说明投资者的情绪相对悲观。或许凸显银行股的阶段性投资价值。\n\n煤炭行业虽然自今年以来涨幅超过35%，但估值仍然比较安全，风险溢价仍处于机会值位置，表明风险补偿仍然较高。\n\n白酒行业的风险溢价水平仍处于危险值附近\n\n半导体行业的估值水平（由于企业盈利不佳，用PB来替代PE效果会更好）已经突破2015年股灾前7倍PB的水平，正逐步接近2000年科技网络股泡沫破灭前夕的最高值。说明了投资者情绪的高潮已经到了。\n\n最后看一下锂电池的疯狂，各项估值水平都已经突破了历史最高纪录，这个行业乐观情绪已经到了前无古人、后无来者的阶段。\n\n以上数据来源：wind","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":895342167,"gmtCreate":1628726412959,"gmtModify":1628726412959,"author":{"id":"300359662539952","authorId":"300359662539952","name":"杨定","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"300359662539952","authorIdStr":"300359662539952"},"htmlText":"前无古人可以说，后无来者不能乱说，说不定锂电板块马上刷新记录。","listText":"前无古人可以说，后无来者不能乱说，说不定锂电板块马上刷新记录。","text":"前无古人可以说，后无来者不能乱说，说不定锂电板块马上刷新记录。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/895342167","repostId":2158400606,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":895967173,"gmtCreate":1628716901392,"gmtModify":1633744975382,"author":{"id":"3577393549070429","authorId":"3577393549070429","name":"Youn7276","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/487c5c26a5e210d6b88adaeaba12329b","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3577393549070429","authorIdStr":"3577393549070429"},"htmlText":"阅！","listText":"阅！","text":"阅！","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/895967173","repostId":2158400606,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":25,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 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