天风证券：维持快手-W(01024)“买入”评级目标价212.19港元

智通财经2021-08-06

智通财经APP获悉，天风证券发布研究报告称，快手-W(01024)是短视频核心赛道的核心平台，需拥有清晰的战略和产品定力，坚守快手独特内容社区特点和私域属性、稳固“老铁”基本盘，中长期才能在面临不断挑战和机遇的核心短视频赛道差异化发展壮大，建议关注。基于最新SOTP估值，目标价降至212.19港元，维持“买入”评级。天风证券主要观点如下：21Q2前瞻：短期业绩或承压，毛利率环比有望提升该行预计快手...

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天罡金斗
2021-08-06
天罡金斗
短期炒作或许还有机会，长期看没有盈利点不看好，就问达到一个什么样的程度才能盈利？
Mark特别帅
2021-08-06
Mark特别帅
维持快手-W(01024)“买入”评级目标价1000000000000000港元.赶紧买买买[捂脸] [捂脸] [捂脸]

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href=http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/528469.html><strong>智通财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>智通财经APP获悉，天风证券发布研究报告称，快手-W(01024)是短视频核心赛道的核心平台，需拥有清晰的战略和产品定力，坚守快手独特内容社区特点和私域属性、稳固“老铁”基本盘，中长期才能在面临不断挑战和机遇的核心短视频赛道差异化发展壮大，建议关注。基于最新SOTP估值，目标价降至212.19港元，维持“买入”评级。天风证券主要观点如下：21Q2前瞻：短期业绩或承压，毛利率环比有望提升该行预计快手...</p>\n\n<a 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$212.19","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"90022":1,"601162":1,"01024":1},"content_text":"智通财经APP获悉，天风证券发布研究报告称，快手-W(01024)是短视频核心赛道的核心平台，需拥有清晰的战略和产品定力，坚守快手独特内容社区特点和私域属性、稳固“老铁”基本盘，中长期才能在面临不断挑战和机遇的核心短视频赛道差异化发展壮大，建议关注。基于最新SOTP估值，目标价降至212.19港元，维持“买入”评级。天风证券主要观点如下：21Q2前瞻：短期业绩或承压，毛利率环比有望提升该行预计快手2021Q2收入约187亿元，同比增45%，环比增10%;对于市场比较关注的销售费用，该行认为Q2虽刨除春节一次性销售费用影响，公司在海外目前处于极速扩张时期，预计公司未来仍会继续加大海外投入，该行预计整体销售费用将在未来持续维持Q1水平，短期利润或承压。该行认为随着公司广告及电商高毛利率业务占收入比重逐渐提升，公司毛利率有望提升。用户：预计高基数下2021Q2用户或小幅下降，重点关注奥运期间用户增长进程该行预计，2021Q2快手用户数环比Q1或有小幅下降，用户黏性稳步提升。用户增长方面，根据Questmobile数据，2021Q2快手+快手极速版DAU(未去重)同比增长19%，环比下降5%，基于快手Q1春节用户高基数叠加季节性因素，该行预计快手用户数较2021Q1环比或有小幅下降。考虑到快手为2020年东京奥运会持权转播商，叠加暑期互联网高峰因素，该行认为可以关注Q3用户增长情况。时长方面，根据Questmobile数据，2021Q2快手人均单日使用时长同比增长18%至近100分钟，快手极速版人均单日使用时长同比增长11%至93.4分钟，用户黏性持续增强。海外方面，2021年4月，快手海外市场月用户均值超过1.5亿，据媒体报道，宿华表示今年海外MAU目标达2.5亿。该行认为公司海外业务发展仍处于初级阶段，未来会继续深耕南美、东南亚和中东地区，建议关注海外用户增长情况。线上营销业务：预计2021Q2延续高速增长趋势，全年收入有望翻倍该行预计，21Q2广告业务有望延续Q1的高速增长态势，收入同比增长158%至100亿元。供给端来看，公司持续加强公域流量运营，流量占比或有所提升;需求端来看，品牌广告主填充及CPM价格或有提升。全年来看，该行认为CPM价格和adload水平有望双提升叠加去年低基数因素，预计公司线上营销业务收入有望实现翻倍增长。电商业务：预计2021Q2GMV增速或略低于预期，关注下半年电商品牌化受公域流量扩容影响，该行预计2021Q2电商业务同比增136%至15亿元，增速略低于预期，但考虑到推出“造风者计划”叠加电商旺季(双十一、双十二)，建议关注下半年电商表现。7月22日，快手电商负责人笑古在服务商大会中提出下半年电商的主要发展方向分别是信任电商、品牌及服务商。该行认为品牌的引入有望满足平台用户多样化的购物需求，同时吸引品牌主在平台上投入更多预算，从而提高广告与电商双收入。直播打赏业务：高基数叠加政策监管影响，预计直播打赏业务收入或承压受去年疫情高基数影响，该行预计公司Q2直播收入同比降15%至71亿元，考虑到直播运营逐步规范及MCN的引入，跌幅环比Q1有所收窄。投资建议：该行下调公司2021-23年收入至833/1126/1417亿元(原为881/1253/1610亿元)，同比增42%/35%/26%，对应预测PS估值4.5/3.3/2.6倍。国内短视频行业整体用户增长放缓，快手Q2国内用户增速有压力或小幅下降，海外市场有更大潜力但需要持续关注海外投放效率的提升及是否可对更多市场进行开拓;公域流量的不断开拓带来线上营销业务或延续高速增长，而私域侧流量比例降低，电商业务上半年GMV增速略低于预期，下半年需关注私域流量的提升及电商旺季表现;此外，预计Q2直播打赏业务收入或承压，由于行业增长缓慢、监管叠加去年收入高基数下呈下降趋势;受市场情绪及解禁期来临影响，近期公司股价大幅调整，目前处于超跌状态。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":893150982,"gmtCreate":1628248886946,"gmtModify":1628248886946,"author":{"id":"3531263342349168","authorId":"3531263342349168","name":"天罡金斗","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4524b08c65a05c8fcd92c2e46a702f51","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/717a877921e5ed88700305c37737450d","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3531263342349168","authorIdStr":"3531263342349168"},"htmlText":"短期炒作或许还有机会，长期看没有盈利点不看好，就问达到一个什么样的程度才能盈利？","listText":"短期炒作或许还有机会，长期看没有盈利点不看好，就问达到一个什么样的程度才能盈利？","text":"短期炒作或许还有机会，长期看没有盈利点不看好，就问达到一个什么样的程度才能盈利？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/893150982","repostId":2157504124,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":893018684,"gmtCreate":1628220491748,"gmtModify":1628220491748,"author":{"id":"3545868972583636","authorId":"3545868972583636","name":"Mark特别帅","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d16819f4fbf94cbbf4371c8646a68992","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b073a07f77dbe6b3bec6b12311fde6bd","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3545868972583636","authorIdStr":"3545868972583636"},"htmlText":"维持快手-W(01024)“买入”评级 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天风证券：维持快手-W(01024)“买入”评级 目标价212.19港元

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天风证券：维持快手-W(01024)“买入”评级目标价212.19港元