美联储已经将其2021年减码流程安排得井井有条

新浪财经2021-08-05

尽管德尔塔病毒变种引发的疫情让美国经济存在不确定性，但所有迹象都表明美联储希望在2022年之前缩减其资产购买计划。虽然减码可能早于市场预期，但不会导致2013年减码风暴的重演，因为鲍威尔治下的美联储专注于避免利率突然飙升。这一次，美国国债收益率将保持低位，直到美联储与外界沟通其加息时间表。　　旧金山联储行长Mary Daly是最新明确表示希望尽快减码的美联储官员。她说，虽然美联储依赖数据做决策，...

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makr
2021-08-06
makr
天天喊狼来了

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Daly是最新明确表示希望尽快减码的美联储官员。她说，虽然美联储依赖数据做决策，但她预计今年或明年年初将实施减码。她的评论与我们听到的副主席Clarida、圣路易斯联储行长Bullard甚至鸽派芝加哥联储行长Evans等人的观点一致。他们都表示，美联储希望尽快缩减其资产购买计划。\n　　这意味着我们可以预期美联储最早将在9月份宣布如何减码，并会给出一个时间表。到那时，德尔塔变种的影响、暂停租客驱逐和重返校园的进程都将变得更加清晰。而美联储将感到能放心概述相关机制和时间表。\n　　2013年5月，当美联储上一次考虑缩减大规模资产购买计划时，市场对当时美联储主席伯南克的讲话作出了激烈反应，从而引发一场“减码风暴”。美联储内部由此吸取的教训就是想要避免市场反应不佳，就得避免“令人意外的美联储资产购买方面的声明”。这就是为什么大量美联储官员正在和外界沟通即将到来的减码。而且鉴于国债收益率并未上升，我们也不应期望当美联储真正宣布减码消息时会有强烈的市场反应。\n　　美联储“让市场无反应”工作手册的另一个做法是常备回购工具（SRF）。在2019年初，美联储研究人员Jane Ihrig和David Andolfatto带头呼吁这是一种防止美联储缩减资产负债表时引发危机的机制。当2019年出现回购危机时，Ihrig和Andolfatto被证明是正确的。因此，在7月的FOMC会议上，美联储宣布了10月1日开始的SRF，正好赶上9月份预期中的FOMC宣布减码。\n　　有了这两个手段，美联储将尽快宣布减码。而这一次，市场的反应将变得平淡。只有在美联储明确公布加息时间表--而且该时间表与市场预期不同时--我们才会看到更明显的市场反应。\n\n\n\n\n海量资讯、精准解读，尽在新浪财经APP","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":899620544,"gmtCreate":1628179499788,"gmtModify":1628179499788,"author":{"id":"3466482543984704","authorId":"3466482543984704","name":"makr","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dde00aae191eb7246f32a852b7b1b215","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3466482543984704","idStr":"3466482543984704"},"htmlText":"天天喊 狼来了","listText":"天天喊 狼来了","text":"天天喊 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