“新茶饮第一股”奈雪の茶，为什么卖得贵又不赚钱？

爱范儿2021-07-01

得偿所愿，奈雪の茶昨日在港上市，正式成为“新茶饮第一股”。只是“第一股”的光鲜，远不如“开盘即破发”的热度。奈雪上市首日发行价 19.8 港元，报收 17.12 港元，下跌 13.54%，总市值约 300 亿港元。上市之前，“卖得贵又不赚钱”就一直困扰着奈雪，所以首日的狼狈也不让人意外。奈雪上市正是为了融资扩张茶饮店网络、推动运营数字化以及提升供应链水平。不同于首日表现，奈雪在招股期间由于认购...

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精彩评论

eito
2021-07-02
eito
上市敲钟这么重要的场合穿个百褶裙理解不能[喷血] [喷血] ，我还蛮喜欢他家的茶的[流泪] 👋
雅雅虎
2021-07-02
雅雅虎
口感不错，但还是贵
- 雅雅虎:
  哈哈哈，这么贵，肯定好喝
- 小小韭菜饺:
  好喝吗
- 雅雅虎:
  [开心] [开心]喝茶买股
XINYIYANG
2021-07-02
XINYIYANG
逊了
YourCFP
2021-07-02
YourCFP
为啥饮料都要学星巴克？
- Wishonest:
  那学谁
美股垃圾车
2021-07-02
美股垃圾车
反正觉得名字取得太过地鼠[捂脸] [捂脸]
llxs
2021-07-02
llxs
ok

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money?","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd2a8b219a840caf5ef4c5ef6f0bb874","symbols_score_info":{"02150":0.9},"content_text":"得偿所愿，奈雪の茶昨日在港上市，正式成为“新茶饮第一股”。\n只是“第一股”的光鲜，远不如“开盘即破发”的热度。奈雪上市首日发行价 19.8 港元，报收 17.12 港元，下跌 13.54%，总市值约 300 亿港元。上市之前，“卖得贵又不赚钱”就一直困扰着奈雪，所以首日的狼狈也不让人意外。奈雪上市正是为了融资扩张茶饮店网络、推动运营数字化以及提升供应链水平。\n不同于首日表现，奈雪在招股期间由于认购火爆，较原计划提前一天关簿结束招股。或许头部玩家奈雪的“流血上市”，可以给一路高歌猛进的新茶饮赛道去去泡沫。\n新茶饮就是贵？\n许多消费者对奈雪的第一印象是“贵”，事实也的确如此。奈雪招股书显示，2020 年前三季度的客单价为 43.3 元，在中国高端现制茶饮连锁店中排名第一，行业均值约为人民币 35 元。\n新茶饮行业均值 35 元，这个价格已经算很高了。2015 年前的茶饮，比如一点点、蜜雪冰城、CoCo 都可，往往使用茶末茶渣或普通茶叶制作基底茶，并用奶精粉勾兑制作；2015 年以来，茶饮届掀起了新茶饮风潮，使用优质茶叶萃取，加入新鲜水果或鲜奶等调味，喜茶、奈雪的茶、乐乐茶、茶颜悦色是代表品牌。\n所以，在选材上强调品质的新茶饮，比传统连锁茶饮价格高一些是有理由的。据奈雪招股书，材料成本和员工成本是奈雪的茶成本大头，2020 年两者占比总和为 68%，其中材料成本占到 37.9%。然而，成本高是一回事，当头部新茶饮品牌纷纷涨价突破 30 元，消费者们就觉得不合理了。同为新茶饮品牌，原材料成本大同小异，甚至有些十几元一杯的奶茶也能有三十元一杯的口感，为什么几个头部玩家这么贵？据“极客公园”，尽管原材料是奶茶成本的大头，但各家的成本差异不会太大，有的品牌定价高，额外成本还在于品牌营销和门店投入。\n显而易见，奈雪在门店投入比较多，主要以面积在 200-350 平米之间的大店为主，选址多在大型商场，平均开店成本为 185 万。2020 年 11 月奈雪推出 Pro 店，店铺面积有所减少，但还是在 80-200 平米之间。相比之下，蜜雪冰城和茶颜悦色的单店面积都不超过30 平方米。而奈雪直接的竞争对手喜茶，对场景没有太多执念。从 2018 年便开始以“大店+极简风的 GO 店”组合形式扩张，大店传递品牌理念，GO 店满足日常茶饮需求，同时单店盈利能力更强，加快扩张速度，喜茶也可以有更多的额外成本用于品牌营销，主推线上社交平台运营和跨界联名。此外，新茶饮定价高还有一个原因，就是新茶饮的生产流程较传统连锁茶饮更复杂。以奈雪为例，它的产品主要分为两大类，一个是现制茶饮，另一个是现烤面包和蛋糕。奈雪创始人彭心曾介绍，“除了外场看到有一群人，后厨还有两群人。他们有一群人和面、打粉、烘烤，另一群人洗水果、切水果、泡茶、打奶盖”。\n生产线复杂对一家连锁品牌则意味着标准化运营的难度增加，这是新茶饮品牌不得不面临的挑战。\n所以，在未来一段时间内，原材料、场地、人员成本高，很可能是奈雪以及其他高端新茶饮品牌的持续性现象。奈雪最贵的一款饮品是 88 元一杯的“霸气猫山王”，曾经在 2018 年 8 月上架，每天限量 30 杯，12 点开卖，只卖 30 天。定价看着高得离谱，但这同样符合市场规律，品牌也有定价自由，有人愿意买，那么新茶饮品牌就乐意卖。\n做奶茶届的星巴克，有可能吗？\n奈雪的茶在上市之前，就一直想要讲一个“茶饮界的星巴克”故事，意图打造“大而美”的“第三空间”。除了门店面积是普通奶茶店的三四倍，奈雪的茶还要求每家直营连锁门店只保留“40% 的相似性”，其他部分根据不同城市进行区分设计，星巴克也正是这个理念——哪家都一样，哪家都不一样。而且，奈雪的位置多在租金偏高的城市中心商圈或高档写字楼。\n但是“一杯好茶一口软欧包”，就足够打造社交场景吗？据沙利文 2020 新茶饮行业发展白皮书，下午茶、购物和遇到愉快的事是新茶饮消费的三大主要场景。不同于咖啡，奶茶的社交属性并没有这么突出，目前也没有真正适合办公的奶茶店。奶茶依旧是一种休闲的、伴随式的个人饮品，边走边喝、公司办公喝、在家喝的场景更为常见。与此同时，据一份消费者洞察，新茶饮的目标群体年龄在 25岁-35 岁之间，对新鲜事物接受程度较高，社交需求强烈，对品质生活有一定要求，但也兼顾便利性和性价比。\n奈雪自身定位的客群是 20-35 岁的年轻女性，这是包含在整个新茶饮市场目标群体内的。就像我的两位同事，一位一个月买一到两次奈雪，另一位去奈雪门店还是两年前。她们都有一两款钟意的果茶和欧包，但对奈雪的价格都不太接受。况且，奈雪门店的面积虽大，环境还谈不上友好。不仅做不成星巴克，大店模式还在继续拖垮奈雪。目前，奈雪已经开出了 422 家门店，在一线城市、新一线城市和二线城市的分布数量分别为 155 家、148 家和 98 家，所创造的营收分别为 8.2 亿元、6.6 亿元和 4.2 亿元。做个除法可以发现，从一线、新一线再到二线，单店所创造的营收是逐渐下降的。这两年在二三线城市开店数量越多，利润率下滑越快。值得一提的是，奈雪也有子品牌“台盖”，台盖是奈雪 2015 年成立的子品牌，主要提供奶茶及柠檬茶饮料，平均价格为 16 元，面向对价格更为敏感的学生及年轻上班族。然而，台盖的平均单店日销售额由 2018 年的 7537 元，减少至 2019 年的 6387 元，奈雪管理层也做了战略性决定，于短期内不推进台盖增长。因此，奈雪的定位在新茶饮市场里多少有点狭窄。大多数消费者愿意在奈雪消费，但消费频次不会太高，也没有特别的奶茶社交需求；奈雪的子品牌“台盖”则规模不大、表现不佳。\n不过，奈雪的 Pro 店才刚刚开始布局，于 2020 年 11 月推出首店，计划布局一线城市商务办公区、高密度社区，较之前的大店模式有所“收敛”，所以后续还有待观察。\n疯狂上新、创意联名、流血上市，新茶饮还有多少解法？\n“一杯好茶，一口软欧包，在奈雪遇见两种美好”，是奈雪的品牌文化。\n奈雪自称创新打造的“茶+软欧包”的形式，现在看也不太有创意了，喜茶也有“喜茶热麦”这一品牌。此外，奈雪有奈雪气泡水，喜茶也有喜小瓶；同样盯着下沉市场，奈雪有台盖，喜茶也有喜小茶。\n\n\n茶饮市场从来不缺创意，也从来不缺后来者。新茶饮品牌们在走得越来越细化的同时，对新品也越来越焦虑。茶饮这一赛道，还有多少想象力？\n据奈雪招股书，截至 2020 年 9 月，奈雪的茶核心菜单有 25 种以上经典茶饮和 25种以上经典烘焙产品。为了保持产品的新鲜度，奈雪围绕核心菜单不断创新，平均每周推出大约一种新饮品，自 2018 年以来，奈雪推出了约 60 种季节性产品，其中不乏桑葚、龙眼这样较为小众的水果口味茶饮被研发。\n今年 3 月，奈雪上新“霸气玉油柑”，宣称用 66 颗油柑榨一杯，“3 秒微涩，5 秒回甘”，正式进入油柑饮品这条极细赛道。霸气玉油柑在上架后销量速度上涨成为爆款，在奈雪茶饮产品中的销量占比已经超过 20%，甚至超出常年榜首的霸气芝士草莓。但后来者众，当油柑这款小众水果被各个新式茶饮品牌纷纷盯上，它也就不再稀奇了，它们对外密集推出与油柑有关的新品，并企图以“量”取胜，口味越浓越好，而承受这些营销宣传和加糖油柑的是对身材和身体焦虑的消费者们。\n同样地，在众多行业之中，茶饮绝对是跨界狂魔，不是比谁有创意，就怕有谁没跟上。仅 2019 一年，喜茶就有 26 个联名。奈雪虽然联名数量上不及喜茶，但联名活动也颇有特色，大致可以分为三类：与文艺 IP 的联名、与其他快消品牌的联名，以及奈雪的茶的自建 IP“CUP 美术馆”。而其中最特别的，是和“好欢螺”联名推出了螺蛳粉软欧包，看着有些黑暗，但的确十分吸睛。在融资这条路上，新茶饮也是争先恐后。2018 年，是中国新茶饮市场发展的关键时间点，许多茶饮品牌开始走上了融资扩张的路径。\n成立于 2015 年的奈雪，至今已经完成了 7 轮融资。沪上阿姨、7 分甜、乐乐茶、奈雪的茶、喜茶等奶茶品牌均在 2020 年获得融资，喜茶的估值可能已达到600 亿元。2020 年底，中国新茶饮的市场规模既已突破千亿大关，到 2021 年，中国奶茶门店的数量将增至 55 万家。中国新茶饮赛道中百余个品牌已经产生了超 200 起融资事件，2021 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