央行召开重磅会议，六大定调出现调整！释放什么信号？

券商中国2021-06-29

6月28日，据中国人民银行官网消息，人民银行货币政策委员会近日召开2021年第二季度例会。会议分析了国内外经济金融形势，并再次强调要灵活精准实施货币政策，处理好恢复经济与防范风险的关系，保持经济运行在合理区间。外界通常会将上述会议看作是央行下阶段货币政策的“风向标”，并会通过比较本季度例会与上季度例会内容的差异来预测货币政策的变化。相较于一季度例会，本次会议在对国内外经济金融形势和货币政策...

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精彩评论

greedycat
2021-06-29
greedycat
中国一定强
tiongjlam
2021-06-29
tiongjlam
[开心] [开心]
Yongda413
2021-06-29
Yongda413
[微笑]
新手520
2021-06-29
新手520
[开心]
鸟语花香在坡县
2021-06-29
鸟语花香在坡县
[微笑]
Kevin29
2021-06-29
Kevin29
有调才有整

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删除此前多次季度例会表态的“围绕创新链和产业链打造资金链，形成金融、科技和产业良性循环和三角互动”。\n\n为何提出要“防范外部冲击”\n会议分析了国内外经济金融形势。会议认为，今年以来我国统筹推进疫情防控和经济社会发展工作，有力实施宏观政策，国民经济总体延续稳定恢复态势。稳健的货币政策保持连续性、稳定性、可持续性，科学管理市场预期，大力服务实体经济，有效防控金融风险。\n贷款市场报价利率改革红利持续释放，货币政策传导效率增强，贷款利率稳中有降，人民币汇率预期平稳，双向浮动弹性增强，发挥了宏观经济稳定器功能。\n会议指出，当前我国经济运行稳中加固、稳中向好，但国内外环境依然复杂严峻。要加强国内外经济形势的研判分析，加强国际宏观经济政策协调，防范外部冲击，集中精力办好自己的事，搞好跨周期政策设计，支持经济高质量发展。\n本次会议新增“防范外部冲击”的表述，或与美联储开始着手逐步退出量化宽松有关。民生银行首席研究员温彬表示，从国际方面看，全球经济虽处于加快复苏阶段，但不同经济体之间的分化明显加剧，或对全球经济复苏增添新的不确定性。\n随着美国通胀预期升温，其经济走势和货币政策的变化方向仍需进一步观察，特别是要警惕美联储货币政策提前转向风险。\n因此，会议强调，要按照党中央、国务院的决策部署，坚持稳中求进工作总基调，稳字当头，立足新发展阶段，贯彻新发展理念，构建新发展格局，以推动高质量发展为主题，以深化供给侧结构性改革为主线，坚持扩大内需战略，巩固拓展疫情防控和经济社会发展成果，扎实做好“六稳”工作，全面落实“六保”任务，灵活精准实施货币政策，处理好恢复经济与防范风险的关系，保持经济运行在合理区间，推动经济在恢复中达到更高水平均衡。\n推动实际贷款利率进一步降低\n在针对下阶段的政策部署安排方面，货币政策并无大调整。\n会议表示，稳健的货币政策要灵活精准、合理适度，把握好政策时度效，保持流动性合理充裕，保持货币供应量和社会融资规模增速同名义经济增速基本匹配，保持宏观杠杆率基本稳定，维护经济大局总体平稳，增强经济发展韧性。\n健全市场化利率形成和传导机制，完善央行政策利率体系，优化存款利率监管，调整存款利率自律上限确定方式，继续释放贷款市场报价利率改革潜力，推动实际贷款利率进一步降低。\n光大证券首席固定收益分析师张旭表示，今年春节以来市场利率便平稳运行。目前全球经济复苏和疫情防控仍存不确定因素，国内经济持续恢复基础仍需巩固，而且进一步加大直接融资比重是现阶段突出的一项任务，此时并没有大幅收缩银行体系流动性的必要。\n预计央行会继续对流动性进行精准调节，熨平短期扰动因素，引导市场利率围绕央行政策利率波动，有效发挥政策利率的中枢作用。\n值得注意的是，本次会议对汇率方面的表态有多处调整，一方面对于二季度人民币汇率的表现，从“人民币汇率总体稳定”改为“人民币汇率预期平稳”，这与近期人民币兑美元汇率经历了一段急涨后回调的双向波动走势有关。\n近10个交易日，人民币兑美元汇率贬值幅度已达1%左右，同期美元指数涨幅也高达1.6%。\n嘉盛集团深分析师Joe 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