The red hot housing market is slowing down the economy: Morning Brief

Yahoo Finance2021-06-24

Supply can't meet demand, housing edition We've periodically checked in on the housing market at The Morning Brief over the last year, and the story has, in general, been consistent. Home prices are ...

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A small change, to be sure. But an example of how the economy-wide demand glut does have some natural speed brakes.\nOn Wednesday, May's report on new home sales showed the pace of sales fell 5.9% last month to an annualized rate of 769,000. The actual number of homes sold last month was the lowest in a year. This report followed Tuesday's gauge on existing home sales, which declined for the fourth straight month to an annualized rate of 5.8 million homes.\nThese drops in the pace of sales, however, were accompanied by a continued surge in pricing as demand cannot be met. The median increase in the price of an existing home sold rose 23.6% over last year in May, while the median increase in a new home's price was 18.1% over last year. But this increase in prices can't offset the negative growth impact of fewer homes trading hands.\nMahir Rasheed, U.S. economist at Oxford Economics, flagged in a note Wednesday that while home sales are likely to be flat or lower for the rest of the year, backlogs should keep homebuilder activity supported.\n\"Nearly 90% of the for-sale inventory in May was of homes where construction is ongoing or has not started, while 36% of homes already sold have not yet broken ground,\" Rasheed wrote.\n\"These backlogs should support homebuilder activity even if the current pace of home sales moderates, although there are likely to be delays in the near term as builders contend with supply chain issues,\" he added. Rasheed also noted that with lumber prices coming down, builder cost pressures being pushed to buyers could ease.\nBut in a note to clients published Wednesday, Ian Shepherdson at Pantheon Macroeconomics was less sanguine on the situation. \"\nNew home sales \"look set to fall further, with a decent chance they’ll soon be back below the pre-COVID trend,\" Shepherdson wrote. \"The story here, we think, is simply that demand in the suburbs has fallen as COVID fear has faded. Inventory remains low but it is rising rapidly; supply hit 5.1 months of current sales in May, up from 3.6 months in January.\"\nShepherdson added that this data points to \"an accident waiting to happen.\"\nWe argued earlier this month that lumber prices cratering reveal to us the future of this recovery. A future in which the most acute pricing pressures ease just as they fell: abruptly.\nBut abrupt turns in the economy don't create healthy conditions. Rather, these turns set the table for investors who couldn't be bullish enough coming into 2021 to suddenly find themselves caught offside the other way.\nBy Myles Udland, reporter and anchor for Yahoo Finance Live. Follow him at @MylesUdland\nWhat to watch today\nEconomy \n\n8:30 a.m. ET: Advance Goods Trade Balance, May (-$87.5 billion expected, -$85.2 billion in April)\n8:30 a.m. ET: Wholesale inventories, May preliminary (0.8% in April)\n8:30 a.m. ET: Durable goods orders, May preliminary (2.8% expected, -1.3% in April)\n8:30 a.m. ET: Durable goods orders excluding transportation, May preliminary (0.7% expected, 1.0% in April)\n8:30 a.m. ET: Non-defense capital goods orders excluding aircraft, May preliminary (0.6% expected, 2.2% in April)\n8:30 a.m. ET: Non-defense capital goods shipments excluding aircraft (0.8% expected, 0.9% in April)\n8:30 a.m. ET: GDP annualized, quarter-over-quarter, Q1 third print (6.4% expected, 6.4% in prior print)\n8:30 a.m. ET: Personal consumption, Q1 third print (11.4% expected, 11.3% in prior print)\n8:30 a.m. ET: GDP Price Index, Q1 third print (4.3% expected, 4.3% in prior print)\n8:30 a.m. ET: Initial jobless claims, week ended June 19 (380,000 expected, 412,000 in prior print)\n8:30 a.m. ET: Continuing claims, week ended June 12 (3.460 million expected, 3.518 million in prior print)\n11:00 a.m. ET: Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity Index, June (24 expected, 26 in prior print)\n\nEarnings\nPre-market\n\n7:00 a.m. ET: Darden Restaurants (DRI) is expected to report adjusted earnings of $1.77 per share on revenue of $2.19 billion\n\nPost-market\n\n4:00 p.m. ET: Fedex (FDX) is expected to report adjusted earnings of $5.00 per share on revenue of $21.49 billion\n4:15 p.m. ET: Nike (NKE) is expected to report adjusted earnings of 50 cents per share on revenue of $11.03 billion\n\nTop News\n U.S. software mogul John McAfee dies by hanging in Spanish prison, lawyer says [Reuters]\nBitcoin trading above $32,000 but cryptos remain under pressure {Yahoo Finance UK]\nSenators to pitch bipartisan infrastructure plan to Biden [AP]\nMicrosoft’s big Windows 11 event is coming up — here's what to expect [Yahoo Finance]\nYahoo Finance Highlights\nFed cautious about return to pre-pandemic labor market\nActivist investor who shook up Bed Bath & Beyond and Kohl's says this is the next big retail opportunity\nGDP is back. 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