美元指数成为油价前行的绊脚石？

格隆汇2021-06-20

本周美联储首次暗示将会在2023年底前加息两次，并将隔夜逆回购工具利率和超额准备金利率上调5个基点，这被市场解读为美联储的鹰派态度。受此影响黄金价格大跌两日，铜价格也出现大幅下滑，几乎所有大宗商品都没能幸免。金融市场风向转变给了多头当头一棒，就连最强势的原油也大幅下挫，不过相对于其他商品动辄5%—10%的回调幅度来说，原油依然表现不俗。本周原油价格在冲击75美元/桶遇挫之后开始高位窄幅整理，从...

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精彩评论

AndrewLam
2021-06-21
AndrewLam
大家怎么看？
kelvinlim
2021-06-20
kelvinlim
[惊讶]
无欲2057
2021-06-20
无欲2057
周期性炒作
- Gnehnusee:
  yes
金虎妞
2021-06-20
金虎妞
油价上下波动的原因太多，美元指数只是暂时的
7e040c23
2021-06-20
7e040c23
油價回條

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Hood投资者大会上表示，他的工作是防止出现这样的超级周期。他过去一直警告投机者当心做空的危险性。在连续出现石油萧条之后，一些国有石油公司和国际勘探公司缩减了勘探开采预算，以节省现金并避免新的供应过剩。包括沙特能源大臣在内的很多人担心资本开支削减过度，在需求反弹的情况下可能导致原油供应吃紧。\n摩根大通石油和天然气研究主管在全球峰会上表示，该银行已确定2021年至2030 年之间有6000亿美元的上游投资缺口，这种短缺将使市场的天平进一步向沙特阿拉伯等欧佩克核心成员国倾斜，但最终可能会引发对传统上主要活跃成员国的闲置产能是否充足的质疑。\n托克石油交易联席主管也表达了对上游投资不足的担忧。他强调：“油市兴奋地摆脱了冠状病毒，但投资也不足。在过去的七年中，我们已经损失了世界三分之二的勘探和生产预算，大规模的投资不足很可能会在全球经济准备好过渡到可再生燃料之前卷土重来。”\n从以上言论我们能够看出供给端目前所面临的问题，虽然短期来看供给端可以和当前的需求相匹配，但一旦需求快速恢复，是否有足够的产能弥补供应缺口将成为重点。我们从钻井平台数也能够看出这一问题，虽然原油价格大幅飙升，但美国的钻井平台数以及美国原油产量并未明显增加、这说明经历了世纪负油价之后，上游的生产商对于投资的态度已经变得十分谨慎。\n由此类推，不仅是美国的生产商变谨慎，全球同样面临着这样的问题，在原油价格回到两年高点之后，全球的钻井平台数依然没有匹配价格增长，主要原因在于暴跌之后油价的反弹速度也比较快，在这么短的时间内开采商所积累的利润没有达到进一步投资的程度，尤其是在刚经历过价格暴跌生死轮回。\n从长期考量，如果需求恢复速度比较快，有可能会出现供给端的严重紧缺，这就要看OPEC以及美国等产油国面对如此高油价的诱惑何时开始加大投资。但即便是开始加大投资，距离产出仍需要较长一段时间，这时候就需要考验OPEC闲置产能的存量了。","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":164468454,"gmtCreate":1624233827978,"gmtModify":1634009268059,"author":{"id":"4087240650258830","authorId":"4087240650258830","name":"AndrewLam","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a19379e85a20f210d8b2f531ab56007","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4087240650258830","authorIdStr":"4087240650258830"},"htmlText":"大家怎么看？","listText":"大家怎么看？","text":"大家怎么看？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/164468454","repostId":2144465706,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":164135685,"gmtCreate":1624179008647,"gmtModify":1634009740180,"author":{"id":"3584162947321626","authorId":"3584162947321626","name":"kelvinlim","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/51f87487f40781fd53b7730ef96d02ea","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3584162947321626","authorIdStr":"3584162947321626"},"htmlText":"[惊讶]&nbsp;","listText":"[惊讶]&nbsp;","text":"[惊讶]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/164135685","repostId":2144465706,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":164077592,"gmtCreate":1624163480916,"gmtModify":1634009947826,"author":{"id":"3581983097481247","authorId":"3581983097481247","name":"无欲2057","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/54e1909dfac2a022786e0d074699d2f2","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3581983097481247","authorIdStr":"3581983097481247"},"htmlText":"周期性 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