未来六个月美股将面临“痛苦”！大摩为何如此断言？

华尔街见闻2021-06-02

一周之前，摩根大通刚刚警告称，全球股指可能会在夏季出现10%的回调，并且预计今年下半年美股的投资回报率将低于均值。如今，摩根士丹利也加入了警告大军，认为美股未来半年的回调幅度将达到10%或15%左右，对于做多大宗商品、做空美元等非常拥挤的交易而言，若美国通胀等经济数据有了任何令人失望的风吹草动，就将为投资者们带来痛苦。在周一的研报中，摩根士丹利首席股票策略师Michael Wilson指出，...

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精彩评论

高明兴_8399
2021-06-03
高明兴_8399
他好做空，先放话。卑鄙
云里梦里飞
2021-06-03
云里梦里飞
涨得太痛苦了吗？
馒头卡喉咙啦
2021-06-03
馒头卡喉咙啦
跌
阿麦小乔
2021-06-03
阿麦小乔
就不能好好涨
AceWong1114
2021-06-03
AceWong1114
😓omg
hhyw
2021-06-03
hhyw
不用等6个月，6月就会大跌😁😁
- yl2021:
  sure or not
- hhyw:
  Let see

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Wilson指出，去年美股受疫情基本面因素扰动经历了异常的波动，到了今年，企业盈利增速惊人，企业对于年度预估的修正也很夸张。\n现在看来，针对美股市场，顺着上述表现所得出的结论，或许已是过于乐观。\n该行首先看到，在过去的四个季度里，企业盈利超出预期的幅度高达20%，创下一个前所未有的新纪录；企业盈利修正幅度也接近35%，同样是一个非常高的数字，未来的下滑不可避免，且它很容易受到影响。\n\n\nWilson表示，目前的问题在于，当这两个数字开始出现下滑，其严重程度是否会到让市场关注的地步。\n他进一步认为，考虑到现在对未来十二个月（NTM）市盈率的预估也已经过高，上述情况确实有可能会发生。\n与此同时，企业净利率正处于历史高位，而不断飙升的生产者投入价格正在打击企业利润。摩根士丹利称，增量营业利润率现在已经超越了极限，很可能在未来十二个月内令市场更为失望。\n为何如此？其原因在于，供应受限和更高的投入成本为利润带来了一定压力，且明年拜登政府可能上调企业税，将对此造成进一步的影响。\n总结来看，受益于全球数万亿美元的财政刺激，企业盈利在过去几个季度当中表现出色，甚至超过了摩根士丹利此前的乐观预期。但由于成本压力上升、企业税上调阴云徘徊，目前的预测似乎都开始不切实际了起来。\n但值得注意的是，在一季度企业盈利创纪录过后，美股市场几乎没有什么太大波动，科技龙头FAAMG当中的几只，股价甚至比4月初还低。\n考虑到财报季过后企业盈利的大幅修正，整体市场价格仍旧持平。换句话说，不断下滑的市盈率在很大程度上已经被不断上升的盈利预期给抵消了。\nWilson警告称，到了这个时候，投资者必须扪心自问，是否认为估值会继续走低，以及未来的盈利修正能否抵消这一影响。\n他还提到，尽管与他有过交流的大部分客户均认为美股目前的估值水平较为合理，但他仍旧相信，下调评级的过程尚未结束，盈利修正也无法抵消其影响，美股市场未来6个月可能会出现10-15%的调整。","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":null,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":111683239,"gmtCreate":1622678817121,"gmtModify":1634099300921,"author":{"id":"3557375403451824","authorId":"3557375403451824","name":"高明兴_8399","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c106c9c1b7bec94cd1fcd8a7834344f2","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"他好做空，先放话。卑鄙","listText":"他好做空，先放话。卑鄙","text":"他好做空，先放话。卑鄙","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/111683239","repostId":2140749092,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":111637405,"gmtCreate":1622678461107,"gmtModify":1634099311283,"author":{"id":"3568431359478653","authorId":"3568431359478653","name":"云里梦里飞","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db96756ff214a0066bf8ab2c997583b0","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"涨得太痛苦了吗？","listText":"涨得太痛苦了吗？","text":"涨得太痛苦了吗？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/111637405","repostId":2140749092,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":111634504,"gmtCreate":1622678434208,"gmtModify":1631893505131,"author":{"id":"3576125208282503","authorId":"3576125208282503","name":"馒头卡喉咙啦","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e3661a8bd6543d698929e7f6942179db","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"跌","listText":"跌","text":"跌","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/111634504","repostId":2140749092,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":111877536,"gmtCreate":1622677361125,"gmtModify":1631890188332,"author":{"id":"3573267026077628","authorId":"3573267026077628","name":"阿麦小乔","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/234561fa04246ad0d2b52dbc39a5b523","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"就不能好好涨","listText":"就不能好好涨","text":"就不能好好涨","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/111877536","repostId":2140749092,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":111872659,"gmtCreate":1622677200071,"gmtModify":1634099338918,"author":{"id":"3575704845309016","authorId":"3575704845309016","name":"AceWong1114","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"😓omg","listText":"😓omg","text":"😓omg","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/111872659","repostId":2140749092,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":111887050,"gmtCreate":1622675517570,"gmtModify":1634099382971,"author":{"id":"3561544476596136","authorId":"3561544476596136","name":"hhyw","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62f8a12108672917c80685184f331b6f","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"不用等6个月，6月就会大跌😁😁","listText":"不用等6个月，6月就会大跌😁😁","text":"不用等6个月，6月就会大跌😁😁","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/111887050","repostId":2140749092,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":4556371,"gmtCreate":1622687948938,"gmtModify":1635390483402,"authorId":3576231438371359,"author":{"id":3576231438371359,"authorId":3576231438371359,"name":"yl2021","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9130003d93212acf586123bc8fe8a1e0","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,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