升破6.39元！离岸人民币直线上涨，利好A股这些板块

中国证券报-中证网2021-05-26

市场价涨，中间价跟涨；中间价涨，市场价再涨。人民币汇率升值已不可阻挡？26日，人民币汇率中间价大幅上调至6.4099，创下近3年新高；离岸人民币汇率直线飙升，升破6.39元；在岸人民币汇率时隔3年也重回6.4元上方。截至上午11:30，离岸汇率最高至6.3877元，在岸汇率最高至6.3943元。那么，这一轮人民币汇率升值是主动引导的吗？升值能抵抗通胀吗？能持续吗？对A股有啥影响？主动推升？在今日...

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精彩评论

猛逃
2021-05-26
猛逃
汇率升降都很正常，别操纵就行。别一惊一乍地[吃瓜]
a中侠
2021-05-26
a中侠
人民币升值空间大，值得拥有
- 猛逃:
  [捂嘴]
真的英雄
2021-05-26
真的英雄
有种开放外汇，看看到底谁超发货币[弱]
- 夜袭女儿国:
  明白人啊 [强] [强] [强] [强] [强]
drawnberry
2021-05-26
drawnberry
胡说八道，升值对出口企业不是好事，我们和客户的合同是有时间的，生产交货一般需要1-2个月，价格和客户是锁定的，在此期间，汇率暴跌，我们拿到的美金，转换成人民币就少了很多。怎么会好？
Jamesong
2021-05-26
Jamesong
美国就希望人民币升值！
往事悠扬
2021-05-26
往事悠扬
出口要完

发表看法

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The offshore RMB has risen sharply, benefiting the A-share sector","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ac53146e146db90689d34e13dc9a42aa","symbols_score_info":{"CYB":0.9,"CNHmain":0.9,"UCmain":0.9},"content_text":"市场价涨，中间价跟涨；中间价涨，市场价再涨。人民币汇率升值已不可阻挡？26日，人民币汇率中间价大幅上调至6.4099，创下近3年新高；离岸人民币汇率直线飙升，升破6.39元；在岸人民币汇率时隔3年也重回6.4元上方。截至上午11:30，离岸汇率最高至6.3877元，在岸汇率最高至6.3943元。那么，这一轮人民币汇率升值是主动引导的吗？升值能抵抗通胀吗？能持续吗？对A股有啥影响？主动推升？在今日人民币汇率中间价调升之前，离岸和在岸人民币对美元市场汇率均已先行升至近3年的高位。25日，离岸人民币汇率盘中一度升值150余点，突破6.4元，最高至6.3944元；在岸人民币对美元即期汇率16:30收盘报6.4078元，升215点。不过在随后的交易中，在岸和离岸人民币汇率均有所回调，25日收盘，离岸汇率报6.4121元，在岸汇率23:30报6.4200元。值得注意的是，在人民币对美元汇率先升值再回调的过程中，美元指数非常合拍地上演先抑后扬的走势，清晰地揭示了短期人民币汇率走势背后的“美元因素”。中国银行研究院高级研究员王有鑫分析，25日离岸人民币汇率飙升主要受两方面因素驱动：一是美元指数午后一度快速下行至89.5附近，促使人民币被动升值；二是中国资本市场表现较好，股汇联动下跨境资金加快涌入，刺激人民币汇率走强。在这两方面因素中，中信建投宏观固收首席分析师黄文涛认为，美元走弱是主因，理由在于：近期人民币升值幅度远小于美元指数跌幅，同时人民币对多个非美主要货币呈现贬值态势。“人民币主动、单边升值的证据不足。”据统计，从4月初低点以来，离岸人民币汇率已升值超过1800点，幅度接近3%。然而，同期美元指数下跌了将近4%。升值能抵抗通胀吗？近期人民币汇率升值，正好伴随大宗商品价格连续上涨。市场有观点称，可通过人民币升值对冲国际大宗商品涨价带来的输入性通胀压力。国盛证券固收首席分析师杨业伟认为，输入性通胀是目前要应对的问题，而在宏观政策选择方面汇率比利率更有效。首先，当前通胀是输入性的，加息难抑制国际大宗商品价格，升值则能有效控制以人民币计价的大宗商品价格上涨压力。其次，当前外需强劲内需偏弱，加息会加剧内需压力，而外需强劲对升值承受力较强。再次，升值也是应对美国无节制发行货币的有效之举。杨业伟认为，面对当前的通胀压力，央行将更多以升值，而非加息或引导利率上行应对。市场上也存在不同的看法。东吴证券首席宏观分析师陶川指出，人民币汇率升值往往对应着美元贬值，而美元贬值会造成主要以美元计价的大宗商品价格进一步上涨，这一涨一跌的最终结果并不明确。陶川认为，当前并不是使用汇率工具的时间窗口。首先，今年要推动人民币更大幅度升值，可能需要靠加息才行，但当前加息的条件并不成熟。其次，汇率升值对于小型企业的冲击较大，与稳企业保就业的政策基调相悖。最后，当前价格传导的不畅会削弱下游中小企业吸收汇率升值冲击的能力。升值会持续吗？此轮人民币升值已持续近两个月，这一趋势会否延续？机构看法存在分歧。黄文涛认为，由于近期人民币汇率走势主要受美元走势影响，美元弱意味着人民币大概率仍将强势。中信证券研究所副所长明明称，结合我国强劲出口、美国实际利率走低以及美联储整体偏鸽态度等因素判断，人民币汇率仍具备升值空间。中金公司报告提示，美元指数的走弱是近期人民币兑美元汇率升值的重要推动因素。长远来看，美国经济复苏将推高实际利率，进而支撑美元。预计人民币未来进一步升值的空间可能有限，需警惕一定程度的回调风险。陶川表示，随着下半年美联储政策退坡预期升温，有理由相信美元当前的跌势不可持续。不过，人民币汇率市场本身具备较大的“惯性”，容易涨过头或跌过头。国际金融专家赵庆明说：“人民币汇率不会大升或大贬，‘进入新升值周期’的言论更是不切合实际。无论从国际上主要货币汇率的走势，还是过去几年人民币汇率的表现来看，涨涨跌跌才是常态。”升值如何影响股市？市场人士分析，人民币升值对国内股市总体构成利好，主要从两个链条产生影响：一是通过汇兑损益影响企业经营和财务表现；二是吸引外资流入。25日北上资金大幅净流入217.2亿元，创历史单日流入之最。A股大涨的同时，富时A50指数大涨4.5%。野村东方国际研究报告指出，人民币汇率升值或是25日股指大涨的诱因。“随着中国自身经济实力的增强、人民币国际化以及金融市场持续开放，人民币资产配置价值将有所提升。”明明分析，北向资金流入A股规模将逐步扩大。广发证券策略研究团队认为，人民币汇率升值将成为A股突破箱体震荡的推手。具体到板块上，综合机构观点看，人民币升值相对利好外债多、出口多、进口原料多等三类企业，航空、金融、地产、机械设备、家用电器、有色金属、化工、纺织服装、建筑装饰、汽车、造纸、钢铁、石油石化等行业是典型代表。此外黄文涛表示，流入债市的外资节奏与汇率相关性明显，强势人民币会给债市带来更多支撑。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":136203526,"gmtCreate":1622017581265,"gmtModify":1622017581265,"author":{"id":"3518527627041174","authorId":"3518527627041174","name":"猛逃","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3518527627041174","authorIdStr":"3518527627041174"},"htmlText":"汇率升降都很正常，别操纵就行。别一惊一乍地[吃瓜]&nbsp;","listText":"汇率升降都很正常，别操纵就行。别一惊一乍地[吃瓜]&nbsp;","text":"汇率升降都很正常，别操纵就行。别一惊一乍地[吃瓜]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/136203526","repostId":2138011838,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":136620483,"gmtCreate":1622015423242,"gmtModify":1622015423242,"author":{"id":"3584006260901659","authorId":"3584006260901659","name":"a中侠","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/02913310974f4cf4b8e7031c2617bb39","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3584006260901659","authorIdStr":"3584006260901659"},"htmlText":"人民币升值空间大，值得拥有","listText":"人民币升值空间大，值得拥有","text":"人民币升值空间大，值得拥有","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/136620483","repostId":2138011838,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":4455406,"gmtCreate":1622017665798,"gmtModify":1622017665798,"authorId":3518527627041174,"author":{"id":3518527627041174,"idStr":"3518527627041174","authorId":3518527627041174,"name":"猛逃","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":136620483,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"[捂嘴]","text":"[捂嘴]","html":"[捂嘴]"}],"langContent":"CN"},{"id":136615598,"gmtCreate":1622013622814,"gmtModify":1622013622814,"author":{"id":"3472509891364152","authorId":"3472509891364152","name":"真的英雄","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/840859d8f7d3c5c63498b7f330b98705","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6444b4970948c1077534c593eccd6d16","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3472509891364152","authorIdStr":"3472509891364152"},"htmlText":"有种开放外汇，看看到底谁超发货币[弱]&nbsp;","listText":"有种开放外汇，看看到底谁超发货币[弱]&nbsp;","text":"有种开放外汇，看看到底谁超发货币[弱]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/136615598","repostId":2138011838,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false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[强] [强] [强] [强] [强]","text":"明白人啊 [强] [强] [强] [强] [强]","html":"明白人啊 [强] [强] [强] [强] [强]"}],"langContent":"CN"},{"id":136874180,"gmtCreate":1622010467440,"gmtModify":1622011419910,"author":{"id":"3577531151312403","authorId":"3577531151312403","name":"drawnberry","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0f3bd7a18b33542bcb50f54189840d0c","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3577531151312403","authorIdStr":"3577531151312403"},"htmlText":"胡说八道，升值对出口企业不是好事，我们和客户的合同是有时间的，生产交货一般需要1-2个月，价格和客户是锁定的，在此期间， 汇率暴跌，我们拿到的美金， 转换成人民币就少了很多。怎么会好？&nbsp;","listText":"胡说八道，升值对出口企业不是好事，我们和客户的合同是有时间的，生产交货一般需要1-2个月，价格和客户是锁定的，在此期间， 汇率暴跌，我们拿到的美金， 转换成人民币就少了很多。怎么会好？&nbsp;","text":"胡说八道，升值对出口企业不是好事，我们和客户的合同是有时间的，生产交货一般需要1-2个月，价格和客户是锁定的，在此期间， 汇率暴跌，我们拿到的美金， 转换成人民币就少了很多。怎么会好？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/136874180","repostId":2138011838,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":136871906,"gmtCreate":1622010146105,"gmtModify":1622010146105,"author":{"id":"3466588668728406","authorId":"3466588668728406","name":"Jamesong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6f6adc4e68e88a5881cd59e5b0a06547","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3466588668728406","authorIdStr":"3466588668728406"},"htmlText":"美国就希望人民币升值！","listText":"美国就希望人民币升值！","text":"美国就希望人民币升值！","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/136871906","repostId":2138011838,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":136843244,"gmtCreate":1622009152388,"gmtModify":1622011419898,"author":{"id":"3522926368588062","authorId":"3522926368588062","name":"往事悠扬","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3522926368588062","authorIdStr":"3522926368588062"},"htmlText":"出口要完","listText":"出口要完","text":"出口要完","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/136843244","repostId":2138011838,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":32,"commentSize":8,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 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