美银：美股仍处长牛市，标普500到年底可能上涨20%

新浪财经2021-05-20

美国银行在周三发布的一份报告中表示，标普500指数开始于2013年的“长牛市”在经历了大流行引发的熊市后仍然存在，预计到2021年底该指数可能飙升至4900点的高位，较当前水平上涨20%。这一目标价是基于该行的长期牛市路线图，尽管在这一过程中可能出现中断。所谓“长牛市”（secular bull market）是指股市跨越多个商业周期总体上仍保持上升趋势，包括周期性牛市和熊市，以及经济扩张和收缩...

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精彩评论

Vivi911
2021-05-20
Vivi911
[开心]
赞我的今年账户翻十倍
2021-05-20
赞我的今年账户翻十倍
毛用，美元跌了10%了
Daphnez
2021-05-20
Daphnez
造梦团又开始唱多，可能最近韭菜割得太频繁，没有韭菜入场给他们割了。
Nancywy
2021-05-20
Nancywy
👿👿👿👿👿
- 尼克欢:
  [惊讶][惊讶][惊讶]

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year","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4aecc30754ae64b0ec54eaba4f1bb5ad","symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.9,"513500":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"ESmain":0.9,"IVV":0.9,"OEF":0.9,"OEX":0.9,"SDS":0.9,"SH":0.9,"SPXU":0.9,"SPY":0.9,"SSO":0.9,"UPRO":0.9},"content_text":"美国银行在周三发布的一份报告中表示，标普500指数开始于2013年的“长牛市”在经历了大流行引发的熊市后仍然存在，预计到2021年底该指数可能飙升至4900点的高位，较当前水平上涨20%。这一目标价是基于该行的长期牛市路线图，尽管在这一过程中可能出现中断。\n所谓“长牛市”（secular bull market）是指股市跨越多个商业周期总体上仍保持上升趋势，包括周期性牛市和熊市，以及经济扩张和收缩时期。从历史上看，长期牛市一般持续20年以上，包括1980年至2000年的股市。\n但美国银行表示，股市在下一轮上涨之前需要冷却下来，指的是从2020年3月的大流行低点开始的一波过度反弹。\n美银解释称：“风险在于，从2020年开始的反弹步伐太快。”该行指出，标普500指数自2020年以来的上涨速度是有记录以来最快的之一。\n美银表示：“与这轮反弹最相似的是2009年、1982年和1935年的反弹。这些之前的反弹表明，2021年有回调风险，这对夏季反弹构成了威胁，但随后将升至更高的高点，在2021-2022年，甚至到2024年。”美国银行表示。\n美银表示，近期美股的抛售在一定程度上是由利率上升和对通胀上升的担忧推动的，这代表着健康的整合，可能为标普500指数进一步上行奠定良好基础。\n美银解释称，考虑到以往长期牛市的历史，整合是合理的，因为第七年往往是“中场休息”。该行表示，1950年和1980年开始的长期牛市在其第七年都经历了周期性熊市的短暂中断。\n“黑色星期一”发生在1987年，道琼斯工业平均指数在一天内暴跌了23%。而1957年，美国经济进入衰退，流感在全国蔓延。2020年，美股从2013年开始的长牛市也进入了第七年，一场全球新冠大流行引发了35%的熊市抛售和经济衰退。","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":197495711,"gmtCreate":1621477160033,"gmtModify":1631893223749,"author":{"id":"3573265397745438","authorId":"3573265397745438","name":"Vivi911","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8a6ddfa048140bd2f4a27ff97cd894e8","vip":1,"crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3573265397745438","idStr":"3573265397745438"},"htmlText":"[开心]&nbsp;","listText":"[开心]&nbsp;","text":"[开心]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/197495711","repostId":2136949017,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":197518808,"gmtCreate":1621473119904,"gmtModify":1634188893760,"author":{"id":"3569581951650623","authorId":"3569581951650623","name":"赞我的今年账户翻十倍","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d1d63378f07d4231f465c7cd27356410","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3569581951650623","idStr":"3569581951650623"},"htmlText":"毛用，美元跌了10%了","listText":"毛用，美元跌了10%了","text":"毛用，美元跌了10%了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/197518808","repostId":2136949017,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":197590536,"gmtCreate":1621472062925,"gmtModify":1634188912714,"author":{"id":"3581567152678426","authorId":"3581567152678426","name":"Daphnez","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/24c3ea3a9bb05be92b9c9f4f6f844e6d","vip":1,"crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3581567152678426","idStr":"3581567152678426"},"htmlText":"造梦团又开始唱多，可能最近韭菜割得太频繁，没有韭菜入场给他们割了。","listText":"造梦团又开始唱多，可能最近韭菜割得太频繁，没有韭菜入场给他们割了。","text":"造梦团又开始唱多，可能最近韭菜割得太频繁，没有韭菜入场给他们割了。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/197590536","repostId":2136949017,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":197278051,"gmtCreate":1621471289273,"gmtModify":1634188924999,"author":{"id":"3582161211823015","authorId":"3582161211823015","name":"Nancywy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c12030b526cd326471fc0fdb70f8e9aa","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3582161211823015","idStr":"3582161211823015"},"htmlText":"👿👿👿👿👿","listText":"👿👿👿👿👿","text":"👿👿👿👿👿","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/197278051","repostId":2136949017,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":4384636,"gmtCreate":1621471779703,"gmtModify":1635405068392,"authorId":3573599245411531,"author":{"id":3573599245411531,"idStr":"3573599245411531","authorId":3573599245411531,"name":"尼克欢","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6dc6e127e28e934f3cc7b8dc2b4e380b","vip":1,"crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":197278051,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"[惊讶][惊讶][惊讶]","text":"[惊讶][惊讶][惊讶]","html":"[惊讶][惊讶][惊讶]"}],"langContent":"EN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":16,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 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