美国走向“滞胀”的十字路口

华尔街见闻2021-05-15

美国银行首席投资策略师Michael Hartnett在过去的6个月内一直警告人们，通货膨胀的到来将不可避免。在美国本周升温的通胀数据和上周惨淡的就业数据公布之后，市场更关注零售销售数据，以此判断美国未来是否会陷入滞胀。事实是，从5月14日美国官方公布的数据来看，美国4月份零售销售数据环比0%，不及预期1%。更糟糕的是，美国4月份核心零售销售数据环比下降0.8%，预期为增长0.3%。 ...

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精彩评论

无欲2057
2021-05-16
无欲2057
目前不好判断！
- Dandelion07:
  [开心]
LunLun6767
2021-05-16
LunLun6767
[惊讶] [惊讶] [惊讶]
- Dandelion07:
  [微笑]
- LunLun6767:
  😉
小虎发财
2021-05-16
小虎发财
赞👍
AliciaLing
2021-05-16
AliciaLing
望股峰瀑布，股市笼罩着紫云烟，但愿不会飞落直下三千尺
- AliciaLing:
  🐩
- jianguang:
  meow
- Vincent8090:
  [微笑] [微笑]
- 53570b80:
  感觉不妙
YongGuang
2021-05-16
YongGuang
开始刮风了哦
- YongGuang:
  噢噢
- SanGuo:
  刮
hhyw
2021-05-16
hhyw
上升已无动力，下跌那是必然🙃🙃🙃

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Hartnett在过去的6个月内一直警告人们，通货膨胀的到来将不可避免。\n在美国本周升温的通胀数据和上周惨淡的就业数据公布之后，市场更关注零售销售数据，以此判断美国未来是否会陷入滞胀。\n事实是，从5月14日美国官方公布的数据来看，美国4月份零售销售数据环比0%，不及预期1%。\n更糟糕的是，美国4月份核心零售销售数据环比下降0.8%，预期为增长0.3%。\n...</p>\n\n<a 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Hartnett在过去的6个月内一直警告人们，通货膨胀的到来将不可避免。\n在美国本周升温的通胀数据和上周惨淡的就业数据公布之后，市场更关注零售销售数据，以此判断美国未来是否会陷入滞胀。\n事实是，从5月14日美国官方公布的数据来看，美国4月份零售销售数据环比0%，不及预期1%。\n更糟糕的是，美国4月份核心零售销售数据环比下降0.8%，预期为增长0.3%。\n值得注意的是，此前美国3月份零售数据爆表，录得9.8%，创去年5月以来新高。\n\n\n没有增长反而是停滞的零售销售数据说明了什么？美国人不愿花钱了？\nMichael Hartnett认为，2021年下半年，市场有可能将主要体现滞胀。在当前通胀的背景下，美国的经济并没有大家想的复苏强劲，而滞胀的风险已悄悄来临。\n近期，原材料及大宗商品价格急涨，美国消费者物价指数更录得10多年来最大升幅，再加上高通胀和低就业，不禁让人想到20世纪70年代的美国滞胀。\n1970年至1983年，美国陷入历史上前所未有的经济滞胀，在生产下降和失业率猛增的同时，物价不但没有下跌反而普遍大幅度上涨，成为高通货膨胀率、高失业率和低经济增长并存的独特经济现象。\n此外，另一项美国数据显示，美国4月份进口物价指数年率实际公布10.60%，超过预期值10.2%，而前值为6.9%。\n有分析指出，美国4月进口物价指数可能会对未来通胀产生影响。如果生产企业无法消化进口商品的物价上升，最终将推高产品出厂价格，并传到至最终消费领域，推高通胀。\n5月12日晚间，美国通胀数据大幅高于市场预期，4月美国CPI和核心CPI同比分别上涨4.2%和3.0%，高于预期3.6%和2.3%，分别创2008年和1996年以来新高。\n数据公布后，市场对美联储可能误判通胀的担忧加剧。众所周知，美联储的主要任务是控制通货膨胀。而美联储发言人老生常谈的“通货风险是暂时的”这类发声安抚，对目前市场来说已是杯水车薪。\n因此，市场重演2-3月份的剧本，对美联储的“不信任票”引发美国股债双杀。\n美银美林认为，展望未来，5、6月份的美国通胀数据至关重要，因为如果继续保持高位，那么美联储在这种情况下，就不得不“急转弯”而加快缩紧步伐。","kind":null,"is_publish_news":false,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":192025703,"gmtCreate":1621131999502,"gmtModify":1634193884206,"author":{"id":"3581983097481247","authorId":"3581983097481247","name":"无欲2057","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/54e1909dfac2a022786e0d074699d2f2","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"目前不好判断！","listText":"目前不好判断！","text":"目前不好判断！","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/192025703","repostId":2135851219,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":4341335,"gmtCreate":1621132891466,"gmtModify":1635408637027,"authorId":3577841443127000,"author":{"id":3577841443127000,"authorId":3577841443127000,"name":"Dandelion07","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e73c14303fd0e237055e64d89ee24206","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":192025703,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"[开心]","text":"[开心]","html":"[开心]"}],"langContent":"CN"},{"id":192009391,"gmtCreate":1621127180713,"gmtModify":1634193939452,"author":{"id":"3578562412522571","authorId":"3578562412522571","name":"LunLun6767","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e777b1ae53f7859ee574d632a763fd54","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"[惊讶]&nbsp;[惊讶]&nbsp;[惊讶]&nbsp;","listText":"[惊讶]&nbsp;[惊讶]&nbsp;[惊讶]&nbsp;","text":"[惊讶] 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